ATL: TEN - Models

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is rolling initializing too weak, barely has an 850 vortex

[Steve]

The GFS is rolling initializing too weak, barely has an 850 vortex

It's barely a ripple. It did figure out that Harvey is on the map though.

Small close off at 36 hours. :/

[Hurricaneman]

It's trying on the 0zGFS but looks sheared through 42hrs

[sma10]

Still rolling down that rogue ull, tying 92L in knots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=162

[Steve]

It's trying on the 0zGFS but looks sheared through 42hrs

It also loses what will be 93L if it isn't already. Remember August 2017. And megabust or not, I'm actually looking forward to the Canadian. This can't be real. I could see 92L impeded for 3/4 days, but come on GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

Still rolling down that rogue ull, tying 92L in knots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=162

The funny thing is the most of the 18z ensembles showed no such thing, could the op GFS really be that bad until cyclogenesis

[HurricaneEric]

It's trying on the 0zGFS but looks sheared through 42hrs

It also loses what will be 93L if it isn't already. Remember August 2017. And megabust of not, I'm actually looking forward to the Canadian. This can't be real. I could see 92L impeded for 3/4 days, but come on GFS.

Speaking of the Canadian, the 00z run initializes 92L with a much stronger vorticity than the GFS does. Not sure if this makes it more accurate, but we'll see.

[Steve]

It gets absorbed and stretched out across the FL Peninsula as another large cutoff comes down and heads west. 92L is gone by 96.

[Bocadude85]

If the UKMET drops development then I'd say the GFS may be onto something..

[Hurricaneman]

It's trying on the 0zGFS but looks sheared through 42hrs

It also loses what will be 93L if it isn't already. Remember August 2017. And megabust of not, I'm actually looking forward to the Canadian. This can't be real. I could see 92L impeded for 3/4 days, but come on GFS.

Without that phantom ULL maybe only 24 to 36 hrs

[StormTracker]

Still rolling down that rogue ull, tying 92L in knots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=162

The funny thing is the most of the 18z ensembles showed no such thing, could the op GFS really be that bad until cyclogenesis

YES!!!

[stormlover2013]

Ridge is strong though

[Steve]

It's trying on the 0zGFS but looks sheared through 42hrs

It also loses what will be 93L if it isn't already. Remember August 2017. And megabust of not, I'm actually looking forward to the Canadian. This can't be real. I could see 92L impeded for 3/4 days, but come on GFS.

Without that phantom ULL maybe only 24 to 36 hrs

Maybe a piece of that tutt is splitting back?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[sma10]

If the UKMET drops development then I'd say the GFS may be onto something..

True. Because it would be too easy to say that the OP GFS is out to lunch ... except for that lingering doubt due to the Euro agreement. If Uk drops development then essentially there is zero support

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Steve]

CMC struggles briefly with 92&93 but all including 91L are strengthening by 66 hours. Direct contrast.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2017081800&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=0

CMC taking over reality?

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC WAY North on this run!!!

[sma10]

Isn't this about the time where the CMC makes it SW dip?

[Steve]

Much farther. But the block is coming down. No way to go but west or stall.