ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

GFS joining reality a few days late. It's not the model to even remotely take seriously outside of a handful of days. European sometimes gets stuff right early but drops it. Someone suggested that perhaps Harvey and 92L were just too small to really show up in the resolution. I don't know. But already this year they've been out performed at times by the mesoscale models where there were storms in close and in their range. I don't know how big or strong 92L can get since we're really not all that favorable for another 18-20 degrees West or so. But I would assume that 92L will stay somewhat small overall. But as compared to the GFS, the CMC isn't exactly at some localized resolution and it has had no problem picking up on potential. That's to be expected because it has historically overblown potential. But it's at least recognizing reality.

[northjaxpro]

92L will likely remain a small system Steve until it gets to near Cuba. It will get beat down by shear, but one thing I will say for 92L. It has continuously pulsated convection off and on during its span. This will prove crucial for the system for survival to keep firing off convection these next few days while battling shear.

[txwatcher91]

92L is running into a wall of shear soon. I think short term development odds are a bit bullish. Still need to keep a close eye on this one for possible USA impacts.....MGC

The question is if the shear will ventilate the system. So far it appears to be doing so on the western half and if stays far enough south it could actually help it.

[Hurricaneman]

Also going farther south could put Hispaniola into play

[northjaxpro]

92L is running into a wall of shear soon. I think short term development odds are a bit bullish. Still need to keep a close eye on this one for possible USA impacts.....MGC

The question is if the shear will ventilate the system. So far it appears to be doing so on the western half and if stays far enough south it could actually help it.

If the TUTT continues to move southwest, actually it indeed could help 92L's outflow. Something to keep an eye on the next couple of days.

[floridasun78]

92L is running into a wall of shear soon. I think short term development odds are a bit bullish. Still need to keep a close eye on this one for possible USA impacts.....MGC

The question is if the shear will ventilate the system. So far it appears to be doing so on the western half and if stays far enough south it could actually help it.

If the TUTT continues to move southwest, actually it indeed could help 92L's outflow. Something to keep an eye on the next couple of days.

if tutt keep moving that good fot 92l?

[northjaxpro]

Also going farther south could put Hispaniola into play

Possibly. It would be a close call if 92L tracked a bit farther south. We just have to watch to see how it unfolds.

[cycloneye]

00z Best track:

Location: 16.0°N 46.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[cycloneye]

17/2345 UTC 16.2N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic

[Blown Away]

If 92L follows an Ike like track, don't think Harvey can be a strong system in NW Caribbean at the same time?

[cycloneye]

@pppapin
Fascinating, but convoluted pattern in CATL on #GOES16 WV. 1st cutoff moves out of #Harvey & #92L's way; 2nd cutoff drops S, w/ shr+dry air.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/898302173280206849

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the latest satellite image it appears that 92L is starting to get a flattop look in the NW quadrant, perhaps a sign of the shear starting to take a toll. Regardless, still looks pretty good for an Invest.

[jlauderdal]

new deep convection firing just west of possible LLC. I say this is a TD at this point. Not sure what NHC is waiting for. At least we would get a discussion and track forecast if this was upgraded. Would love to see what the NHC is thinking on the future of this system.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

we have seen really good looking ir presentations and nada at the surface, i wouldnt expect any upgrades until they get a visible

[blp]

Looking at the latest satellite image it appears that 92L is starting to get a flattop look in the NW quadrant, perhaps a sign of the shear starting to take a toll. Regardless, still looks pretty good for an Invest.

Yes I am starting to wonder how long the ULL will continue to aid the outflow before it turns into a shredder. The ULL is huge.

[blp]

Interesting the follow-up on the above tweet. Let's see how this evolves. Not a common evolution.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/898307435466694656

[gatorcane]

Pretty nice blowup of convection in progress:

[stormreader]

Pretty nice blowup of convection in progress:

Looks like a "potential tropical cyclone".

[RL3AO]

Looks like a "potential tropical cyclone".

But no warnings are needed so it doesn't qualify for PTC status.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks really close to the shear but isn't quite there yet, I say sometime tomorrow evening this gets sheared where a LLC ends up on the western side of the convection

[Hammy]

I don't see any hint of spin in the low cloud movement--looks like the shear won out already.