ATL: TEN - Models

[Steve]

I think it will follow 93L out to sea.

A high gets hung up around the Great Lakes coming down. Looks like a block would be there so another stall could be in the works.

[hd44]

Cmc looks to come close to or hit New England.

[Bocadude85]

Got to love the model swings...from south of Cuba to out to sea in one cycle.. I wonder what the next cycle will show?

[sma10]

I mean are the models that bad now ?

If you mean bad as in "they have wildly disparate solutions" ... yes, they are bad. However, in my experience they have always been this way.

[Hurricaneman]

Cmc looks to come close to or hit New England.

With a strong hurricane non the less, we need to watch for trends not just towards development but we are now having east shifts so may need to be watched along the whole eastern seaboard too

[hd44]

Given how far west 92l is... it will be hard to recurve.

[stormlover2013]

They have never been this bad ever..

[Bocadude85]

UKMET basically drops development or delays it until the end of the run...the GFS/Euro might have this right after all.

[Hurricaneman]

Given how far west 92l is... it will be hard to recurve.

Not hard at all really, it's all a timing thing

[SoupBone]

Got to love the model swings...from south of Cuba to out to sea in one cycle.. I wonder what the next cycle will show?

It'll head to the Western Pacific where it gets reclassified as a Super Typhoon.

[AxaltaRacing24]

UKMET basically drops development or delays it until the end of the run...the GFS/Euro might have this right after all.

It's delayed but begins to intensify just off the FL coast.

[Hurricaneman]

UKMET basically drops development or delays it until the end of the run...the GFS/Euro might have this right after all.

UKMET did it for a few runs with Gert and brought it back

[Bocadude85]

I don't think any of the models have a clue as to what the future of 92L is..every model cycle we have a drastically different outcome. My best guess is going to be anything from a tropical wave to a cat 1 hurricane near the Florida coast in 5 days or so.

[sma10]

UKMET basically drops development or delays it until the end of the run...the GFS/Euro might have this right after all.

Might be so, and very tempting to go with that.

However this whole idea of bringing 92L, in whatever shape it may be in, and then just dumping it in the bahamas in a stall is a provocative thought, and seems to be the only thread that binds all the models together. If it can just somehow untangle itself from this ull, it could be an entertaining week.

[Steve]

CMC has everything in tact by end of the weekend. It may get that part right.

[Bocadude85]

Looking at the ridging forecast on the GFS tells me that if 92L were to develop that the most likely outcome would be a landfall in Florida while starting a recurve. As usual it appears that it will all be about timing, the GFS starts to break the ridging down next Wednesday..by that time according to the GFS 92L should have passed through S.Fla.

[hd44]

Ukmet would have a similar track to the CMC.

[stormlover2013]

Where does ukmet have Harvey

[hd44]

That is not out to sea bound. The trough in the Canada looks to be splitting which may leave a piece down to merge.

[SouthFLTropics]

For what it's worth the 00z HWRF is further North at 54 hours.