ATL: TEN - Models

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is MUCH less bullish on the threat to the SE CONUS vs the last 4 runs and especially vs the last run. I don't even see one member even close to H strength.

The 0Z Euro remains quiet with it.

[hd44]

The 0Z GEFS is MUCH less bullish on the threat to the SE CONUS vs the last 4 runs and especially vs the last run. I don't even see one member even close to H strength.

The 0Z Euro remains quiet with it.

Hwrf also less bullish. Ukmet hardly has a system judging on the NOAA site track and isobars. This could be a quick demise ... but I will keep watching it still. It's late August and tropics can surprise sometimes.

[otowntiger]

The 0Z GEFS is MUCH less bullish on the threat to the SE CONUS vs the last 4 runs and especially vs the last run. I don't even see one member even close to H strength.

The 0Z Euro remains quiet with it.

Hwrf also less bullish. Ukmet hardly has a system judging on the NOAA site track and isobars. This could be a quick demise ... but I will keep watching it still. It's late August and tropics can surprise sometimes.

On to the next one. (if there is a next one) Nothing to see here folks.

[NDG]

The reason why the GFS and Euro are not too enthusiastic with 92L lately is because it shows the ULL to north of it to get really close to it if not move over it as it moves westward towards the Bahamas, causing it to collapse or open up to a wave north of the greater Antilles, but I would still pay to attention as we know models have a hard time with these smaller ULLs some times as they interact with tropical systems, great example was with Gert.

[chaser1]

The reason why the GFS and Euro are not too enthusiastic with 92L lately is because it shows the ULL to north of it to get really close to it if not move over it as it moves westward towards the Bahamas, causing it to collapse or open up to a wave north of the greater Antilles, but I would still pay to attention as we know models have a hard time with these smaller ULLs some times as they interact with tropical systems, great example was with Gert.

If my memory serves me, at one point Hurricane Andrew degenerated to a wave as well.

[jlauderdal]

nhc is looking at the gfs and euro and hwrf and every other model known to man and they still kept it at 70, lets see what they do in a couple of hours

[tolakram]

If Harvey ends up as a strong cane in the gulf then the demise of 92L seems logical.

[CourierPR]

If my memory serves me, at one point Hurricane Andrew degenerated to a wave as well.[/quote]

Indeed it did.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

UKMET has been rather consistent on a SE FL path.

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the 6z GFS shows stronger vorticity hitting south florida. Its not a TD or TS but its the stongest vort signal from the model in a while




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[NDG]

If Harvey ends up as a strong cane in the gulf then the demise of 92L seems logical.

92L could be affecting Florida way before that, but I agree that the outflow from Harvey could affect 92L but if the UL ridge stays to the north of Harvey while it is is in the far western Caribbean its outflow will not reach 92L because of the UL easterly winds.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS has the strongest vorticity by far, in the Gulf now

[ronjon]

06z GFS eventually forms a 1005 mb tropical storm south of La that moves into Mobile Bay from 92L. It's a closed circulation over the NE GOM at 1012 mb after exiting FL west coast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS moves 92L into SE FL, has it crossing the peninsula, exiting south of tampa, and becoming more defined in the gulf. At that point a turn to the north into the central GOM is reasonable. CMC's latest run has 92L recurving east of FL and going OTS. Since it's so far out, I still expect the models to show quite a bit of shifting from run to run, but hopefully soon they will become more consistent so we will have a better handle on potential track. I don't expect it to be any stronger than a tropical storm at most, but we should watch to see if shear, the TUTT, and ULL have much less shearing impact than expected, for example, if 92L becomes oriented at a distance or position relative to TUTT to ventilate the system or enhance upper level divergence and forced ascent. In that case, there is potential for a stronger system, but I'm currently not expecting that at this time. Nevertheless, it is late August so keep paying attention to it.

[N2FSU]

[tolakram]

If you look at the models for providing clues rather than exact solutions then I believe both the Euro and GFS have identified that the gulf is favorable for development if a disturbance can get in. Either Harvy or 92L, take your pick.

[Dean4Storms]

These scenario's worry me because we have seen it time and time again where a system is expected to go through strong shear and the models for the most part see nothing left and yet we emerge with a strong TS that is able to overcome the shear with strong convection with the divergence being so strong aloft. This system already appears more organized than the models are seeing it.

I wouldn't write this off as a strong TS or Cat. 1 hurricane for the Bahamas and FL just yet! Two days ago the models had nothing with 91L as well.

[SFLcane]

06z guidance is father north this morning and away from land interaction. This is the one to watch for US threat next week.

[Blown Away]

06z guidance is father north this morning and away from land interaction. This is the one to watch for US threat next week.

I never thought 92L diving SW near Florida jived with Harvey going into CA about the same time... 92L appears to be a Florida or points N system, still appears to be in the form of a TW...

[Blown Away]

12z Model Tracks/Intensity...


Definite uptick in intensity and north shift on 12z...