ATL: HARVEY - Models

[stormlover2013]

Climatology

[hd44]

It's the prudent way to be cautious and not to over react to one Ecmwf run. Gfs/ Ukmet are still seeing no such thing. If this becomes a trend, then USA could could be in play.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

It's the prudent way to be cautious and not to over react to one Ecmwf run. Gfs/ Ukmet are still seeing no such thing. If this becomes a trend, then USA could could be in play.

The thing is it is becoming a trend ! And it's not a good one for now

[hd44]

It's the prudent way to be cautious and not to over react to one Ecmwf run. Gfs/ Ukmet are still seeing no such thing. If this becomes a trend, then USA could could be in play.

The thing is it is becoming a trend ! And it's not a good one for now

It is... but when the 2 leading track models diverge like this , it could easily revert back south next run. I usually want good consensus from both Ukmet/Ecmwf for track to be confident.

[La Breeze]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017081800/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_11.png
ecmwf going crazy for Harvey

How similar is it to Aubrey?

Aubrey? I don't seem to remember "Aubrey."

[hd44]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017081800/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_11.png
ecmwf going crazy for Harvey

How similar is it to Aubrey?

Aubrey? I don't seem to remember "Aubrey."

Thanks meant to say Audrey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Audrey

[NDG]

The reason why the Euro has Harvey to move towards the northern GOM, a big breakdown of the subtropical ridge over the southern US by the middle of next week while the GFS shows the ridge to stay in place. Something to watch on today's 12z run by the Euro to see if it keeps trending towards last night's run since it also has been so inconsistent in its medium to long range forecast.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

This was always on the cards, the ec 00z run back on the 14th was running with a cane in
GOM. Its just a shift to the west.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah the 00z EPS has a very complex setup.

EPS control:
Brings it very close to the Texas Mexico border.
Skirts the complete Texas coast without landfall.
Finally makes landfall over Lousiana.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts suggest a frontal boundary across the Northern Gulf Coast States back into the Mid Atlantic Region later next week. Also the TUTT feature currently situated across portions of Cuba into the Bahamas is expected to meander West across the Gulf this weekend into early next week before shearing out or filling in over S Texas leaving a weakness across the NW Gulf by next weekend. It's still to soon to know with any certainty where Harvey will make its final impact with land, but I am not surprised to see a slow trend Northward. Anyone from Guatemala to Grand Isle would be wise to follow the trends and forecasts carefully throughout the weekend into early next week.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS essentially unchanged. Maybe a bit more north through 126 hours.

[stormreader]

Wow is all I can say about this Euro run.

Yep looks to be headed towards TX/LA as a hurricane in about 9 days.

Had a feeling yesterday. Really felt like this was not destined to be another Franklin. I think it was hurricane man who posted about some models showing an unresolved and complex situation in the GOM at that time. And now we have this Euro run. Just one run. But the last run gave us some hints (it was 200-300 miles further north). And now this.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Wow is all I can say about this Euro run.

Yep looks to be headed towards TX/LA as a hurricane in about 9 days.

Had a feeling yesterday. Really felt like this was not destined to be another Franklin. I think it was hurricane man who posted about some models showing an unresolved and complex situation in the GOM at that time. And now we have this Euro run. Just one run. But the last run gave us some hints (it was 200-300 miles further north). And now this.

Yeah I said the pattern would be very complex alot of factors at play here... models are predicting a trough to dive down at hour 144 which would help weaken the ridge also models are trending towards a ULL over Texas weakening the steering flow which would slow this down considerably and possibly pull it due North! Still lots of time to watch

[Blown Away]

06z GFS essentially unchanged. Maybe a bit more north through 126 hours.

06z GFS at 126 hrs, definitely a little South/stronger in CA than 00z.

[stormreader]

Very Opal like and Audrey on the Ecmwf with the north movement day 7 to 9 .

Posted yesterday about how its been awhile since we had an important storm make a trek NNW or just N up from the southern GOM toward the northern Gulf coast. Another one was Carmen in 1974. My hunch would be NNW. I think the Cameron area of SW La has to be considered. I can't see the models, just going on what you guys have said about it. But thats what I think.

[Nimbus]

So our ULL currently over Cuba morphs into a weakness north of the mid gulf and a much stronger Harvey track towards Louisiana.

Perhaps the models changed as a result of being initialized with a tropical storm instead of a wave?

I would expect some future runs to shift back just north of Tampico *if* Harvey struggles some in the Caribbean> Be interesting to hear WXman57's take on the new runs..

[stormreader]

Unbelievable. People are in for one heck of a wake up call when they see this in the morning.

If you track noreaster's you come to realize that this is not much of a shift. I deal with this every winter 500 mile shifts in 1 run.

Just got the wake up call.

[stormreader]

00z Euro hours 72-240. Massive shift north.



Let's see if the other models follow suit.

Okay, now I see. You know lots of model criticism, and its justified. Asking models to do so much these days, especially when systems are in the formative stage. But after actual cyclone formation, and given a couple of runs to sort things out, you still have to look to the Euro for trends. Now the GFS??? It will probably tag along in another day or two. Model is definitely hinting at a GOM storm with Tex-La's name on it.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS through 150hrs.

[stormreader]

It's the prudent way to be cautious and not to over react to one Ecmwf run. Gfs/ Ukmet are still seeing no such thing. If this becomes a trend, then USA could could be in play.

The thing is it is becoming a trend ! And it's not a good one for now

I remember your post last night, telling me that the future in the GOM might still be uncertain.