WPAC: HATO - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Invest 93W has been designated just to the east of the 'Philippine Area of Responsibility'(PAR)...
Organization/strengthening of this system is likely to occur early to mid next week as it moves towards/through the Luzon Strait and into the northern part of the South China Sea...

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 170818 0600 18.6N 136.2E WPAC 15 1007

Latest fix.

[euro6208]

EURO still much more aggressive in developing Hato compared to GFS. Makes landfall over China.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM a bit north of EURO's location near Northern Taiwan while CMC continues to blow this up to a typhoon before striking Southern Taiwan. GFS continues to struggle with it's development maybe due to it's large size.

[euro6208]

JMA has a depression in 48 hours. Typical as they recognize any LPA as a depression no matter how disorganize it is.

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 170818 1200 18.7N 135.0E WPAC 15 1007

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 170819 0000 19.7N 133.5E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.7N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION. AN 182226Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A 190040Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK, ELONGATED LLCC AND FLARING
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR MARK
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Looks good. It should be a TD now.

[euro6208]

Models aren't aggressive with this. Brings it to Taiwan as a weak TS.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

It does look like a TS already. Remember Harvey like most Atlantic TS gets upgraded when they reach 1.0 or 1.5.



TPPN10 PGTW 191212

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF LUZON)

B. 19/1200Z

C. 20.87N

D. 129.48E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[mrbagyo]

looking good.



The monsoon surge enhanced by this system has been dumping a lot of rain in the Philippines (particularly here in western Luzon) - and it looks like it ain't gonna stop soon as 93W continues to linger while trying to consolidate at the NE of PI.

[dexterlabio]

:uarrow: looking good.



The monsoon surge enhanced by this system has been dumping a lot of rain in the Philippines (particularly here in western Luzon) - and it looks like it ain't gonna stop soon as 93W continues to linger while trying to consolidate at the NE of PI.

Similar monsoon setup with Trami in 2013.

[Alyono]

depression as per JMA

[mrbagyo]

Similar monsoon setup with Trami in 2013.

yep, their set up is quite similar - almost the same timeframe also



thickness of this current monsoon is worrisome- I'm thinking this could be another big rain event for Manila.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 130.7E TO 21.7N 125.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 129.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 190927Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN CURVED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ANIMATION, THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ALSO, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 12-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND HEIGHTENED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

19/2030 UTC 19.2N 129.1E T1.0/1.0 93W -- West Pacific

TPPN10 PGTW 192042

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF LUZON)

B. 19/2030Z

C. 20.22N

D. 127.77E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT OF 2.0. PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW