ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

regardless of what this is, it is pounding the Windward Islands with heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides are expected this morning

[Nimbus]

if there still is a center this morning, looking at radar (I just woke up, so I havn't looked at any obs yet), it may be south of Barbados. VERY disorganized this morning

NW of Barbados small but intact.

not seeing anything there. Plus, Barbados has an 8 mph east wind. If the center is northwest of Barbados, this is an open wave

Wasn't much wind in the southern quadrants, Barbados was spared.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is ahead of Harvey.
Vort column will expand vertically as Harvey moves into it.
Conservation of angular momentum will force the tangential wind speeds to increase.
AKA, Harvey likely to spin up in the East Carib.

[GCANE]

That huge MCS just east of the TUTT is washing out as expected.
Shear-induced convection does not last long.

A couple key effects from it.

1) Easterly wind shear likely to dissipate.
2) Harvey's track may get a more northly nudge.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16281&y=7811&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[GCANE]

Also as expected, warm-core is slightly west of the CoC due to the convection firing on that side.
Not expected though, is how low it is.
Getting more under the anti-cyclone should stack it better.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anti-cyclone is ahead of Harvey.
Vort column will expand vertically as Harvey moves into it.
Conservation of angular momentum will force the tangential wind speeds to increase.
AKA, Harvey likely to spin up in the East Carib.

GCANE, be careful with the streamlines on the CIMSS shear figures. They are the streamlines of the shear vector and not necessarily the streamlines of the upper-level flow. The upper-level anticyclone is displaced NW of Harvey and the models maintain this displacement for much of Harvey's journey through the Caribbean. This is inducing some easterly shear over the TC.

[Alyono]

seeing no wind shift with the aircraft data. However, the pressure did bottom out slightly below 1004mb

110530 1405N 06001W 8430 01555 0061 +200 +154 079035 036 034 000 00
110600 1404N 06001W 8432 01554 0062 +200 +162 078034 035 034 000 00
110630 1402N 06001W 8433 01553 0063 +197 +162 077034 035 034 000 00
110700 1400N 06000W 8429 01556 0065 +195 +164 081036 036 034 001 00
110730 1359N 06000W 8432 01553 0062 +198 +157 080035 036 035 000 00
110800 1357N 06000W 8432 01553 0061 +201 +157 079034 035 033 000 00
110830 1355N 06000W 8432 01554 0060 +203 +160 082034 035 034 000 00
110900 1354N 06000W 8433 01554 0059 +203 +165 082033 035 034 000 03
110930 1352N 06000W 8434 01550 0058 +210 +146 084035 035 033 000 00
111000 1350N 06000W 8431 01554 0057 +210 +146 085035 036 034 000 03
111030 1349N 06000W 8431 01553 0055 +208 +157 085034 035 034 000 00
111100 1347N 06000W 8431 01553 0053 +215 +139 086035 035 034 000 00
111130 1345N 06000W 8429 01555 0056 +208 +151 088035 036 033 000 00
111200 1344N 06000W 8432 01550 0056 +205 +161 088035 035 032 000 03
111230 1342N 06000W 8430 01551 0054 +205 +159 095030 035 032 000 00
111300 1340N 06000W 8433 01548 0055 +205 +157 092030 030 032 000 03
111330 1339N 06000W 8429 01550 0057 +199 +160 084030 031 031 000 00
111400 1337N 06000W 8433 01547 0054 +204 +158 087030 032 032 000 03
111430 1335N 06000W 8435 01545 0050 +208 +161 096030 031 032 000 00
111500 1334N 06000W 8433 01548 0050 +208 +161 096030 031 033 000 00
111530 1332N 06000W 8433 01545 0052 +202 +160 097029 029 032 000 03
111600 1331N 06000W 8432 01544 0049 +206 +153 102028 030 033 000 00
111630 1329N 06000W 8433 01543 0045 +212 +145 106024 026 034 000 00
111700 1327N 06000W 8432 01544 0042 +216 +138 111021 023 034 000 03
111730 1326N 06000W 8430 01545 0039 +221 +135 121018 019 037 000 03
111800 1324N 06001W 8429 01545 0042 +216 +144 120018 019 032 000 00
111830 1323N 06001W 8432 01543 0044 +210 +154 118016 017 030 000 00
111900 1321N 06002W 8429 01545 0044 +208 +156 126014 015 029 000 03
111930 1320N 06003W 8434 01538 0037 +223 +142 138010 012 025 000 03
112000 1318N 06004W 8433 01539 0034 +227 +134 138007 009 024 000 03
112030 1317N 06005W 8430 01544 0036 +223 +137 134006 007 025 000 00
112100 1316N 06006W 8433 01542 0041 +215 +153 125005 006 027 000 00
112130 1314N 06007W 8430 01543 0042 +212 +155 108005 006 027 000 03
112200 1313N 06008W 8432 01542 0044 +207 +160 115006 007 026 000 00
112230 1312N 06008W 8433 01540 0044 +206 +158 093005 005 027 000 00
112300 1310N 06009W 8433 01542 0044 +207 +159 051004 005 026 000 03
112330 1309N 06010W 8430 01544 0046 +207 +159 048004 005 028 000 00
112400 1307N 06011W 8436 01538 0049 +194 +167 074005 009 027 000 00
112430 1306N 06011W 8421 01556 0058 +183 +172 062006 009 028 000 01
112500 1304N 06012W 8439 01538 0054 +196 +169 054005 006 025 001 00
112530 1303N 06014W 8431 01547 0053 +197 +168 054006 006 023 000 00
112600 1302N 06015W 8433 01545 0058 +188 +175 061004 006 023 000 00
112630 1301N 06016W 8433 01547 0061 +188 +174 111005 006 023 000 00
112700 1259N 06017W 8430 01550 0062 +188 +173 101004 005 022 000 00
112730 1258N 06019W 8431 01550 0062 +192 +165 112003 004 022 000 03
112800 1257N 06020W 8432 01550 0060 +195 +162 092005 006 022 001 00
112830 1256N 06021W 8430 01550 0061 +191 +173 069008 009 026 001 00
112900 1255N 06022W 8432 01549 //// +176 //// 046010 013 027 003 01
112930 1253N 06023W 8436 01544 //// +170 //// 043014 015 031 002 01
113000 1252N 06025W 8429 01554 //// +175 //// 037012 015 030 002 01
113030 1251N 06026W 8434 01548 0070 +181 //// 046015 016 030 002 01
113100 1250N 06027W 8435 01548 0074 +176 //// 040009 015 030 004 01
113130 1249N 06029W 8429 01554 0069 +182 +162 055008 009 030 003 03
113200 1247N 06030W 8433 01550 0066 +185 +164 061011 013 029 002 00
113230 1246N 06031W 8433 01549 0066 +185 +159 051013 014 029 001 00
113300 1245N 06032W 8429 01554 0074 +175 +175 044014 014 029 002 01
113330 1244N 06034W 8435 01549 //// +167 //// 039012 014 029 004 01

[GCANE]

Latest rain rate.
Towers popping left and right.
Recon just recorded 1003.4mb and they are not even close to the CoC.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe the GFS wasn't crazy afterall?

[Alyono]

Maybe the GFS wasn't crazy afterall?

nah, it was. It had a much higher pressure coming through the Windwards, not 1003mb

Not sure how this is open given this low pressure

[tolakram]

I'm guessing the center is reforming, which we've seen a lot of down in this area.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe the GFS wasn't crazy afterall?

nah, it was. It had a much higher pressure coming through the Windwards, not 1003mb

Not sure how this is open given this low pressure

Yeah that's certainly interesting. A wave with a pressure of 1003mb ...

[tolakram]

I would say he center is to the NW of the last pass.

[Alyono]

broad circulation now confirmed. Could not understand how it was open given the pressures

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

broad circulation now confirmed. Could not understand how it was open given the pressures

Lol yeah but it's still closed as of now just really broad

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 13.2N 59.6W T2.5/2.5 HARVEY

[euro6208]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 13.2N 59.6W T2.5/2.5 HARVEY

As always recon always lead dvorak in the Atlantic. 1.5 when it was upgraded. It would likely be upgraded to a TS elsewhere recently.

That's why recon is so essential.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 13.2N 59.6W T2.5/2.5 HARVEY

But it still could be a open wave

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS run is showing stronger Enthalpy Flux and earlier on into the East Carib than yesterday's run.