ATL: HARVEY - Models
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
A little concerned. ..this went from no development into central america..now trending north...is the gulf open or protected by a ridge once again?
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Michael
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Alyono wrote:FWIW 6Z NAVGEM came in much weaker
You still follow that model?
Maybe you can give some insite..models this year blow up storms then they all drop them..yet gert became a strong hurricane that the models all had a strung oit mess
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Michael
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stormlover2013
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
mmm I have a feeling models won't change much today, will say mexico prob still but who knows.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Alyono wrote:FWIW 6Z NAVGEM came in much weaker
You still follow that model?
Maybe you can give some insite..models this year blow up storms then they all drop them..yet gert became a strong hurricane that the models all had a strung oit mess
Not insight on the NAVGEM, but Levi has an early video out that I'm about to watch.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Alyono wrote:looks like the GFS is back toward dissipation...
Wow. You never know what the expect from these upgraded models as Avila stated...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Alyono wrote:FWIW 6Z NAVGEM came in much weaker
You still follow that model?
Maybe you can give some insite..models this year blow up storms then they all drop them..yet gert became a strong hurricane that the models all had a strung oit mess
I'd rather follow the NAVGEM than the fundamentally flawed GFS
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hd44
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_4.png
Overnight Ecmwf showed dissipation but had it back later on.
Overnight Ecmwf showed dissipation but had it back later on.
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WeatherEmperor
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Out to 66hrs the 12z GFS is quite Similar to the 00z Euro just a bit faster. Will be interesting to see what this does after the Yucatan.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
72hrs GFS opens into a wave....
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:72hrs GFS opens into a wave....
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
Is it that TUTT that is causing the GFS to think dissipation in 72 hours? Seems like it could interact with that feature right about that time.
Last edited by SoupBone on Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
GFS has major issues. Never seen a model so inconsistent.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
SoupBone wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:72hrs GFS opens into a wave....
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
Is it that TUTT that is causing the GFS to think dissipation in 72 hours? Seems like it could interact with that feature right about that time.
Possibly. The image above shows the shear forecast at 72hrs
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 60.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 0 13.2N 60.2W 1004 38
0000UTC 19.08.2017 12 13.4N 63.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 19.08.2017 24 13.2N 67.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 20.08.2017 36 13.5N 70.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 20.08.2017 48 13.8N 74.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 21.08.2017 60 14.2N 78.5W 998 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 72 14.8N 82.3W 994 46
0000UTC 22.08.2017 84 15.8N 85.1W 999 44
1200UTC 22.08.2017 96 16.6N 87.9W 997 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 108 17.1N 89.5W 1000 24
1200UTC 23.08.2017 120 17.7N 91.3W 1002 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 132 17.7N 93.4W 1004 28
1200UTC 24.08.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 0 13.2N 60.2W 1004 38
0000UTC 19.08.2017 12 13.4N 63.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 19.08.2017 24 13.2N 67.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 20.08.2017 36 13.5N 70.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 20.08.2017 48 13.8N 74.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 21.08.2017 60 14.2N 78.5W 998 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 72 14.8N 82.3W 994 46
0000UTC 22.08.2017 84 15.8N 85.1W 999 44
1200UTC 22.08.2017 96 16.6N 87.9W 997 47
0000UTC 23.08.2017 108 17.1N 89.5W 1000 24
1200UTC 23.08.2017 120 17.7N 91.3W 1002 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 132 17.7N 93.4W 1004 28
1200UTC 24.08.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING
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hd44
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Cmc has weaker troughing than 00z . I think the 00z track on the Euro was not that good.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
hd44 wrote:Cmc has weaker troughing than 00z . I think the 00z track on the Euro was not that good.
It was probably a fluke, the long range Euro has been bad at flip-flopping run to run this season.
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Cunxi Huang
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
well, most models agree with a track heading towards the borderline of Honduras and Nicaragua.
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