ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pcolaman]

I think that the ull that's coming down from the ne will play a big part on keeping 92L at a minimum for the next 3 to 4 days. After that if it brakes away then it might have a chance. History has shown us that a storm riding with a ull never really gets the chance to take off. It will be a wait and see as time goes along. imo

[Sciencerocks]

Looks better then Harvey. But I won't say anything more. lol

[gatorcane]

Not saying this is our next Andrew but the reason why we watch these wave this time of year so closely is because if they find favorable conditions down the road, they can become a big problem. Here is a picture of Andrew before it became the CAT 5 monster that ravaged South Florida in 1992 basically looking worse than invest 92L is looking now. It is located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in this image. Also included link to video if you want to watch the full animation.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0eHC_XzOco

[CourierPR]

[quote="gatorcane"]Not saying this is our next Andrew but the reason why we watch these wave this time of year so closely is because if they find favorable conditions down the road, they can become a big problem. Here is a picture of Andrew before it became the CAT 5 monster that ravaged South Florida in 1992 basically looking worse than invest 92L is looking now. It is located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in this image. Also included link to video if you want to watch the full animation.

Met. Joe Bastardi believes 92L is closed off now.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Looks like Invest #92L is beginning to develop into a tropical depression... persistent deep convection by center of circulation.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/898571001809649666

[cycloneye]

Fridays TCPOD has plenty of missions for the next 2 days.

Code: Select all

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 74
       A. 19/2000Z                   A. 19/2330Z
       B  NOAA2 0409A HARVEY         B. AFXXX 0509A HARVEY
       C. 19/1800Z                   C. 19/2130Z
       D. 13.8N 69.2W                D. 14.0N 71.1W
       E. 19/1930Z TO 20/0030Z       E. 19/2300Z TO 20/0230Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 20/0800Z                   A. 20/1130Z
       B  NOAA2 0609A HARVEY         B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
       C. 20/0600Z                   C. 20/0900Z
       D. 14.2N 73.0W                D. 14.3N 75.0W
       E. 20/0730Z TO 20/1230Z       E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY AT 20/2330Z NEAR 14.5N 78.0W.

[cycloneye]

The first mission is now for Sunday afternoon north of Puerto Rico.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 20/1800Z NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 21.5N 66.0W.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18007&y=6893&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Blown Away]

Just odd to have (2) systems almost one on top of the other moving in sync to the W into the Western Atlantic... One has to give, likely 92L...

[blp]

I see 92l outrunning the first ULL to its North already. Not to say it will not continue to be under heavy shear for the next 24hrs but I think it will survive this one. It is the smaller ULL developing around 30N 60W that will be the key feature since it is forecasted to run right into 92l. Let's see how it plays out but I think this will be stronger than the models have progged.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[blp]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18007&y=6893&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Looks like the LLC is right under that convection. I think this is a TD now.

[gatorcane]

I see 92l outrunning the first ULL to its North already. Not to say it will not continue to be under heavy shear for the next 24hrs but I think it will survive this one. It is the smaller ULL developing around 30N 60W that will be the key feature since it is forecasted to run right into 92l. Let's see how it plays out but I think this will be stronger than the models have progged.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

It is holding up well against this shear so far. I agree it is the PV streamer that is should meet up with in a couple of days that models think will squash this. We'll see...

[SFLcane]

If it can keep pulsing convection it might have a chance in SW Atlantic..

[Blown Away]

If it can keep pulsing convection it might have a chance in SW Atlantic..

I would think the 2pm would at least keep it at 70%, but would not surprise me if it were higher or lower...

[p1nheadlarry]

92L just took a whack of shear, end of loop

[cycloneye]

Down to 60%-60%

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However,
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable, and the chances for
a tropical cyclone to form are diminishing. The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

92L just took a whack of shear, end of loop

...and still looks just fine.

[SFLcane]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

[hd44]

Imo this is a td right now could even be a 40 mph ts. I don't get why NHC wont upgrade it.

[TheStormExpert]

If this isn't a TD now I doubt it'll ever be one, conditions just look horrible for 92L's future. Hard to believe it's August 18th.