Total Solar Eclipse: Post images/Videos of surroundings,traffic,eclipse

[WeatherGuesser]

First 7 Day Area Forecasts coming into view.


Greatest Duration Point; Lick Creek, IL ( 37.52°N 89.07°W ) [ http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-89.0708 ]

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the morning.

Greatest Eclipse Point; Cerulean, KY ( 36.95°N 87.7°W ) [ http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-87.7089 ]

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind.

Roughly midway between; Burna, KY ( 37.24°N 88.36°W ) [ http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-88.3604 ]

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anything for MO and TN?

Right now, NWS is mentioning slight chance of thunderstorms for SE Nebraska area and scattered thunderstorms across much of Missouri on Eclpse Day. However, the NWS office in Nashville, TN for the current time is calling for sunny skies there on Eclipse Day as the thinking by their mets is that the EURO will be right in building an upper level ridge across the region. GFS is showing a front and unsettled weather.

There are going to be changes, just as you would expect a week out. But, always plan for contingencies for the weather for everyone along the path of totality and stay on top of the latest forecasts.

Going to have to pay close attention to the setup. My plan B is to head somewhere near Nashville, with my Plan A currently being to fly out to Kansas City, MO.

[northjaxpro]

Right now, I would be rooting for the EURO to verify at the end of the next 7 day period because it is showing a ridge building into the the Mississippi Valley area. That would be very encouraging for eclipse viewers in the path of totality in Southern IL, Missouri , Kentucky and Tennessee.

The GFS however keeps a trough over the TN Valley and into the SE U.S. Sunday into Eclipse Day. So it can go either way. Things will change of course. So, we will have to really monitor this very, very closely for the rest of the week leading to the eclipse. I will be in South Carolina, and I am already seeing the early 7 day forecasts of chance of potential scattered rain and thunderstorms down there on Eclipse Day. Making contingency plans now in the event I may have to move around in the state, depending on what the weather will be like within at least 24 hours in advance of the event.

It is summer, and any given day there will be a chance of thunderstorms, especially in the South. Cloud cover is the main challenge. Just hoping the atmosphere can stay as stable as it can to keep convective tops at a minimum for all in the path of totality next Monday!

[WeatherGuesser]

From KPAH:

LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017


On Great Eclipse Day, Monday, August 21st, southerly moist low level
flow is shown to increase a bit under broad ridging aloft,
destabilizing the lower trop. It is possible that an isolated shower
or tstm could develop here or there despite the warm air aloft, but
model consensus suggests that this may not occur until after eclipse
time (early afternoon). Temps will be warm, in the upper 80s, with
heat indices in the middle 90s. The models currently suggest no more
than about 35% opaque cloud cover around eclipse time. One
significant variable is this: Some model solutions suggest a
possibility of showers and tstms occurring in central MO midday
Monday. Depending on the direction of the mid and upper flow, cirrus
blow-off, even if semi-transparent, could interfere with eclipse
viewing, especially in the western half of the region.

So, in a nutshell, with reasonable confidence we can say it`s
looking good overall for the Great Eclipse in this part of the
CONUS, but at this time, it is impossible to know down to the minute
what the sky condition will be.

...

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Updated cloud-cover forecast for #Eclipse2017
Totality: Wyoming scattered clouds
Upper Midwest looks rainy
Daytime convection in Southeast

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/897468451752730624

[weathaguyry]

Eek! Looks good except for exactly where I'm going in North Carolina. 06z has good conditions for NC, my only contingency plan would be to drive south of Gatlinburg, TN if it's cloudy just so we can see some totality. (Tropical Tidbits has a total cloud fraction feature for the GFS)

[WeatherGuesser]

From KPAH:

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Special discussion for eclipse: Model trends continue to move toward
a drier day than originally thought. Isolated storms still possible
and it will be warm and humid. Number of GEFS members that are
producing rain continues to drop, now at 4 out of 12, so the odds are
getting better. Models want to have weakening showers and thunderstorms
across the southern sections during the morning then have them dissipate
by late morning. So, depending upon how quickly that dissipates and
any cirrus thunderstorm blow-off the cloud forecast is still a bit iffy.
Time-height cross sections from both the GFS and ECMWF have high RH values
over our area generally above 400 mb. Will it be thick cirrus or thin?
Difficult to tell right now, but we are watching it closely.

[WeatherGuesser]

NWS Nashville is calling for a 20% chance of showers.

[weathaguyry]

From the NWS Greenville/Spartanburg

As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday Aug 16: In the upper levels, a shortwave trough still looks on order for Sunday with subtropical ridging to build in on Monday. At the surface, a stationary front will remain stalled south of the region on Sunday (likely across the Midlands and Low Country), while surface high pressure migrates from the central Appalachians into the Delmarva. The stationary front looks to gradually lift northward out of the Midlands into the Upstate by early afternoon Monday, per both the GFS and ECMWF. Low level RH fields in both models favor RH in excess of 70% with profiles exhibiting modest lapse rates. Therefore chances for convection remain elevated with forecast sky cover still in 50-60% range.
Keep in mind that the forecast may change significantly over the next 2-3 days. If the front ends up being further south, as some models show, there is a better chance at sunny skies the afternoon of the eclipse. By late Friday or early Saturday confidence in the forecast for Monday should be appreciably higher, so stay tuned to subsequent forecasts.
Next update by: 5pm Wednesday

[northjaxpro]

Thanks for posting this update. The Greenville NWS office did.a good update here. Hoping the front gets south of the SC Midlands region area by Monday afternoon. I will be following this extremely close in the days leading to the eclipse.

[cycloneye]

@hurricanetrack
There's one. I'm sure it will be fine to have 10 million people all heading to SC to view it. Nothing ever goes wrong on 40 or 95



 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/897862545876410368

[WeatherGuesser]

From KPAH:

LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

On Eclipse Day, Monday, August 21, the deterministic med range
models suggest that the broad ridge over our region may be
suppressed slightly by shortwave energy moving through. The precise
timing of any ripple or ripples of energy that could drive deep
moist convection is not attainable at this point. A smoothed version
of the initialization blend yields the possibility of isolated
showers and tstms during daylight hours, mainly over the
southeastern half of the region where low level moisture should be a
bit deeper. Currently, forecast cloud cover has increased some for
Mon, and around eclipse time (18Z) we could have 30-40% coverage of
the celestial dome associated with the possible convection. This of
course is subject to change, especially if you factor in cirrus
blowoff from possible tstm complexes outside our region in MO/IL/AR.

[weathaguyry]

From the NWS Greenville/Spartanburg

As of 315 AM EDT Thursday Aug 17: Conditions do look to be improving for our region as guidance still favors the resurgence of a stationary front, however at a slower rate than previous model runs on both the GFS and ECMWF. With that, the front slowly surges northward out of the Low Country and Midlands, yet now not reaching the I85 corridor until mid/late afternoon, most likely after totality. In addition, low level RH fields have improved as well with values ranging in the 45-55% percent range as opposed to nearly 10% higher in days past. All in all, think viewing conditions are looking better.
Finally, please keep in mind that the forecast may change significantly over the next 2-3 days. Confidence in the forecast for Monday should be appreciably higher by late Friday and Saturday, so stay tuned to subsequent forecasts.
Next update by: 5PM Thursday

[cycloneye]

@NOAAcharts
Watching the solar #eclipse from the water? Download your free @NOAA nautical chart, navigate safely, & have fun! https://www.nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/

 https://twitter.com/NOAAcharts/status/898538790578515968

[WeatherGuesser]

...Friday morning discussion on Solar Eclipse Day for the WFO PAH
forecast area...

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the mesoscale
and storm scale level activity for Monday, the trend from the
GFS/European/Canadian/NAM-WRF family of guidance is that that the
influence of any Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) existing over
KS/OK/AR/MO area may be waning during the morning hours on Monday.
The trajectory of any mid-upper level cloud cover would likely have
to come from any potential MCS from the west of the WFO PAH forecast
area. The benefit of any morning clouds would help slow the reaching
of convective temperatures for the development of more widespread
lower level cumulus cloud fields.

All in all, the cloud forecast much better than projected by the GFS
last weekend and early this week. The ECMWF has been consistently
drier than the GFS and Canadian Guidance.

Temperatures during the three hour period of the eclipse transition
will range from 85 to 91 degrees, with a relative minimum along the
central axis of the 100% totality. Of some concern will be heat
index values, which will spike into the middle and upper 90s around
3 pm CDT, after the eclipse.

For travel, any shower or thunderstorm activity should now remain
minimal, except over southeast Missouri. Depending on the origin
point and evolution of an MCS in the middle and upper Mississippi
Valley Monday night, most persons remaining in the area should be
ok. Travel may be tricky on Tuesday, as showers and thunderstorm are
forecast to work southward with coverage expected to peak Tuesday
afternoon and overnight.

Again, there is still a number of smaller scale weather phenomena
which may impact the forecast between now and Monday morning. Stay
tuned.

&&

To me, that's a whole lot of words that say ' we're not sure what might happen, check back with us later'.

[cycloneye]

@JimCantore
This is the best simulation you'll find of the upcoming total solar eclipse http://mashable.com/2017/08/16/solar-ec ... 9NbaQtl5Op … via @mashable


 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/898558194544521216

[tolakram]

Driversheds (think watersheds) to the eclipse.

http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-eclipse-car-traffic-travel-delay-maps-2017-8



We will be on #5 most of the way. Ugh.

[tolakram]

Earthsky article with a little more detail in what to expect.

http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/traffic-congestion-predictions-maps-eclipse-august-21-2017

[cycloneye]

Internet is going to go nuts with this.

@TSE2017Info
The total solar eclipse may break internet records — here's how web companies are preparing for the crush #TSE2017 -

 https://twitter.com/TSE2017Info/status/898703853603958784

[tolakram]

For those driving and using Android phones (possibly Apple as well) I suggest using the google maps features to pre-download map areas where you are going. I expect a lot of slow and overloaded cell towers with so many people in such a small area.

https://support.google.com/maps/answer/6291838?co=GENIE.Platform%3DAndroid&hl=en