ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Convection is building and appears to be expanding.
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Tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.
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- HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Why would you be shocked?
hd44 wrote:If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurricaneBrain wrote:Why would you be shocked?hd44 wrote:If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.
Poorly organized and matching up with the ecmwf who shows it. There is limited turning right now on the cloud structure.
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- HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I'm not buying it.
hd44 wrote:HurricaneBrain wrote:Why would you be shocked?hd44 wrote:If this doesn't become a wave I will be shocked. However if it can gain some latitude watch out later on.
Poorly organized and matching up with the ecmwf who shows it. There is limited turning right now on the cloud structure.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
it's probably a wave now. This likely was not a tropical storm impact on the Windard Islands, but rather a strong wave/broad low pressure passage. Weather the same though
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Pressures might be dropping. Recon just went through an area with a pressure approximately 1008.4. The pressures in the same basic area on the previous pass was closer to 1010mb.
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Tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
shear...shear...shear...shear a lot lol
Last edited by Cunxi Huang on Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
panamatropicwatch wrote:Pressures might be dropping. Recon just went through an area with a pressure approximately 1008.4. The pressures in the same basic area on the previous pass was closer to 1010mb.
NEW convective bursts likely lowered the pressures slightly let's see if this continues
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's building bands again so if it's not a well defined LLC I think it's borderline.
SLIDER
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16335&y=8181&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
SLIDER
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16335&y=8181&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...
This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Blown Away wrote:12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...
This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours
Recent CMC, GFS, Navgem significantly weaker through 60 hours... Let's see how that plays out long term...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Blown Away wrote:12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...
This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours
Recent CMC, GFS, Navgem significantly weaker through 60 hours... Let's see how that plays out long term...
Yes this was expected !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:Blown Away wrote:12z models trending lower, so maybe the lack or organization is expected short term...
This was expected it won't gain strength till 60 hours
Recent CMC, GFS, Navgem significantly weaker through 60 hours... Let's see how that plays out long term...
Euro said it could open up so like I said short term doesn't look promising
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Alyono wrote:better defined center on this pass
Yep it's slowly getting better
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 62.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 62.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Y'all don't know me since I rarely post but I fell I know y'all. #please be careful and I am praying for all effected by Harvey.
#2 nothing is allowed in coastal Mississippi or Louisiana this year. I have a big fan in my back yard and sending another to Louisiana. My hubby works in NOLA and I am trying to get on disability. I need him to work. My early retirement will not pay the bills
#2 nothing is allowed in coastal Mississippi or Louisiana this year. I have a big fan in my back yard and sending another to Louisiana. My hubby works in NOLA and I am trying to get on disability. I need him to work. My early retirement will not pay the bills
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- Cunxi Huang
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TXNT24 KNES 181800
TCSNTL
A. 09L (HARVEY)
B. 18/1745Z
C. 13.1N
D. 62.1W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSE CLOUD LINES,
PROXIMITY NEAR OVERCAST, NOT SMALL SIZE. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
Shear pattern used. Definitely it's being sheared.
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