ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hd44]

If this isn't a TD now I doubt it'll ever be one, conditions just look horrible for 92L's future. Hard to believe it's August 18th.

Ukmet is stronger than 00z.

[CourierPR]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Not to cause a stir, but to SFLCane's defense, 12 years of luck can cause people to think that way. Hard to blame them for that. Still find it odd that this has been the case this long. Every single time a system forms this happens. Heck right now there are three ULLs moving in tandem with 3 systems trying to form.

[SFLcane]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Well being grateful for the hostile environment the lies ahead of this disturbance. Must watch as most know its that time of the yr.
To add lots of hype going into this season almost mid month at 1 lame TS a hurricane at 40N and another cane that lastest 5 min. Something is up in this basin there is no doupt about it. Now back to 92L.

[TheStormExpert]

If this isn't a TD now I doubt it'll ever be one, conditions just look horrible for 92L's future. Hard to believe it's August 18th.

Ukmet is stronger than 00z.

UKMET hasn't been all that good.

[SouthFLTropics]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Not to cause a stir, but to SFLCane's defense, 12 years of luck can cause people to think that way. Hard to blame them for that. Still find it odd that this has been the case this long. Every single time a system forms this happens. Heck right now there are three ULLs moving in tandem with 3 systems trying to form.

Coincidence??? Perhaps. Or perhaps something more...like the government is controlling the weather!!!

[alienstorm]

One day that luck will run out. There is something going on in the atmosphere that I dont even expect to know, but with conditions the way they are and calling for above normal activity and these waves just can't develop.

[chaser1]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Yeah, I'd agree with you CourierPR. While I wouldn't go nearly as far as some pro-mets making claim to 92L having absolutely closed off a finite COC, to waive the green flag and suredly state the "all-clear East Coast this one is toast" sign is just off. This system is exhibiting some intense energy and I do believe a very small core that present conditions continue to disrupt from becoming vertically stacked. As long as there is turning and strong convection, I sure couldn't imagine writing it off

[Blown Away]

92L is >1800 miles away from CONUS and it's amazing how much confidence there is that something won't happen... Credit to the models, they give us enough information to make a high percentage prediction...

[tarheelprogrammer]

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Not to cause a stir, but to SFLCane's defense, 12 years of luck can cause people to think that way. Hard to blame them for that. Still find it odd that this has been the case this long. Every single time a system forms this happens. Heck right now there are three ULLs moving in tandem with 3 systems trying to form.

Coincidence??? Perhaps. Or perhaps something more...like the government is controlling the weather!!!

Not getting into all that. However, 12 years of luck like this, it is truly hard to explain scientifically I am sure of it. Seeing as many experts choose not to take a guess at why this is the case. However, anything can happen, and this still needs to be watched. I was just pointing out that I can understand why people feel the way SFLCane feels.

[chaser1]

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Not to cause a stir, but to SFLCane's defense, 12 years of luck can cause people to think that way. Hard to blame them for that. Still find it odd that this has been the case this long. Every single time a system forms this happens. Heck right now there are three ULLs moving in tandem with 3 systems trying to form.

Coincidence??? Perhaps. Or perhaps something more...like the government is controlling the weather!!!

Wait?! It's Nibiru LOL

[SoupBone]

Expected downgrade on TWO..luck for US continues.

The certitude of that statement is mind boggling.

Not to cause a stir, but to SFLCane's defense, 12 years of luck can cause people to think that way. Hard to blame them for that. Still find it odd that this has been the case this long. Every single time a system forms this happens. Heck right now there are three ULLs moving in tandem with 3 systems trying to form.

This is actually why I like watching these things. It's impressive to see what is basically a fight between global weather phenomenon. Pretty awesome.

[sma10]

I'm fairly sure ULL and TUTT's have been a part of the Atlantic for a very long time. I doubt there is something "strange" going on in the environment that has allowed the US to go 12 years without being hit by a MH. 12 years seems like a long time for our lifetimes but it's just a blip for the Earth.

Consider that, but for rare exceptions, the 1971-1987 period was deader than Julius Caesar in the tropics. I grew up during this period in Miami and hurricane season after hurricane season passed without hardly ever a threat. I remember finding it impossibly mind boggling that both David and Frederic actually affected the US in the same year! Meanwhile, in the 1940's South Florida was literally a dartboard getting hit by majors left and right.

[Dean4Storms]

It's is going to take a lot of shear and at least a couple days to completely wipe away the vort. It being latter half of August moving into the SW Atlantic region I still think it pops down the road.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not to cause a stir, but to SFLCane's defense, 12 years of luck can cause people to think that way. Hard to blame them for that. Still find it odd that this has been the case this long. Every single time a system forms this happens. Heck right now there are three ULLs moving in tandem with 3 systems trying to form.

Coincidence??? Perhaps. Or perhaps something more...like the government is controlling the weather!!!

Not getting into all that. However, 12 years of luck like this, it is truly hard to explain scientifically I am sure of it. Seeing as many experts choose not to take a guess at why this is the case. However, anything can happen, and this still needs to be watched. I was just pointing out that I can understand why people feel the way SFLCane feels.

For the record...I don't subscribe to that conspiracy theory...I was just being sarcastic. However, when there is no other explanation, all theories, no matter how crazy must be entertained. Spock said something to that effect.

[tolakram]

For the record...I don't subscribe to that conspiracy theory...I was just being sarcastic. However, when there is no other explanation, all theories, no matter how crazy must be entertained. Spock said something to that effect.

Not on this message board. Just in case there was any doubt. I don't even like joking about it because it can bring crazies out of the woodwork that the mods have to deal with.

None of you are crazy, are you?

[Nimbus]

92L is getting blasted by dry shear from the NW with a second TUTT beginning to descend a little further west.
The LLC can be seen on the western edge of the convection, and thus far the system has been able to persist.

[tolakram]

Brutal spear of shear. Amazingly it appears some outflow is still making it northward.

SLIDER AIRMASS

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17462&y=6938&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[sma10]

For the record...I don't subscribe to that conspiracy theory...I was just being sarcastic. However, when there is no other explanation, all theories, no matter how crazy must be entertained. Spock said something to that effect.

Not on this message board. Just in case there was any doubt. I don't even like joking about it because it can bring crazies out of the woodwork that the mods have to deal with.

None of you are crazy, are you?

Yes. I subscribe to the crazy and wacky notion that statistical anomalies actually occur without further explanations needed.

[SoupBone]

Brutal spear of shear. Amazingly it appears some outflow is still making it northward.

SLIDER AIRMASS

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17462&y=6938&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

That is amazing. How often does shear run in a straight line like that? I don't think I've ever seen it do that.