ATL: HARVEY - Models

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Cpv17
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#661 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:44 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017081812&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=170


navy model

Looks like it's moving NNW at the end of the run towards Corpus.
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Thetxhurricanemaster
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#662 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:46 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017081812&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=170


navy model

Looks like it's moving NNW at the end of the run towards Corpus.

Harvey making a B line for my house
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#663 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:51 pm

12z Euro initiated... Looks weaker than 00z to start...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#664 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:56 pm

12z HWRF has this moving North/NNW at the end of its run off the NW tip of the Yucatán.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#665 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:57 pm

euro about the same right now
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#666 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:17 pm

Slightly further south so far through 96 hours compared to the last run of the Euro.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#667 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:21 pm

ec shifting well south now. questionable if this even makes the BOC

trough does not dip nearly as far south this run
Last edited by Alyono on Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#668 Postby hd44 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:21 pm

As I mentioned before... 00z euro run was not that good.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#669 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:22 pm

Definite south shift, 120 hour image 12Z Euro:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#670 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:29 pm

Buried:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#671 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:29 pm

Yep doesn't make the BOC this run, looks like a done deal by 144hrs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#672 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:31 pm

Actual track will likely be between those two EC runs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#673 Postby lsuhurricane » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:31 pm

Biggest difference between 0Z and current run is timing. This run is tracking 200-300 miles faster during the same intervals as last run. Would be enough to not feel the full impact of the upcoming trough.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#674 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:31 pm

This is why you do NOT get excited about a single model run, especially one 8-9 days in the future!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#675 Postby hd44 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:33 pm

Gulf of Mexico upper low weaker on Ecmwf == stronger ridging more south.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#676 Postby lsuhurricane » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:34 pm

Alyono wrote:This is why you do NOT get excited about a single model run, especially one 8-9 days in the future!



And is highly likely to change drastically as a result!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#677 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:35 pm

Won't know till about Monday will keep flip flopping
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#678 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:36 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:Biggest difference between 0Z and current run is timing. This run is tracking 200-300 miles faster during the same intervals as last run. Would be enough to not feel the full impact of the upcoming trough.

Definitely agree. We'll see what the ensembles have to say.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#679 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:38 pm

Euro Center newest 12z run does not show any intensification before landfall...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#680 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:Actual track will likely be between those two EC runs.


I know this is the model thread, but.... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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