ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Building convection out to the NW. Pretty amazing with the NW shear it is getting hit with. This is a tenacious invest:

[AutoPenalti]

Building convection out to the NW. Pretty amazing with the NW shear it is getting hit with. This is a tenacious invest:

...and that's something to really keep an eye out once it reaches the Bahamas..

[TheStormExpert]

How favorable will conditions really be once 92L or whatever's left reaches the Bahamas?

[northjaxpro]

92L indeed is hanging tough this afternoon. Actually more convection had fired up.

92L is persevering just fine. Must watch this system very closely from here on out.

[Steve]

Brutal spear of shear. Amazingly it appears some outflow is still making it northward.

SLIDER AIRMASS

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17462&y=6938&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=18&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

That is amazing. How often does shear run in a straight line like that? I don't think I've ever seen it do that.

Yeah. It's that the upper low is oriented in such a way that the western side is diving just east of due south. It's got part of Gert's tail ingested.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[wxman57]

Not looking as impressive as earlier today. Doesn't have much model support now. May have already peaked, but I wouldn't turn my back on it if I lived in southern Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

I know many get reminded of Andrew every time they see an area of interest in this part of the Atlantic during this time of year but imo Andrew is a once in a lifetime event just like 2005 was.

[hd44]

Models are not sampling well the convection release with 92l and the expanding outflow. I still think this wave will be trouble. This is not going away anytime soon.

[Kingarabian]

I know many get reminded of Andrew every time they see an area of interest in this part of the Atlantic during this time of year but imo Andrew is a once in a lifetime event just like 2005 was.

Katrina?

[MGC]

Upper environment across almost the entire Atlantic basin is becoming hostile. I need to break out my old slide rule to count the number of ULL now. Doubt 92L gets upgraded in the short term.....MGC

[boca]

Even if 92L were to develop the trough always saves Florida,this happens 9 out of 10 times so I grown used to storms turning at the last second in the Bahamas

[sma10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif
Models are not sampling well the convection release with 92l and the expanding outflow. I still think this wave will be trouble. This is not going away anytime soon.

The low currently pummeling 92L appears to be stationary. Interesting to see what kind of shape 92L will be in tomorrow after passing further West

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif
Models are not sampling well the convection release with 92l and the expanding outflow. I still think this wave will be trouble. This is not going away anytime soon.

The low currently pummelling 92L appears to be stationary. Interesting to see what kind of shape 92L will be in tomorrow after passing further West

dry air, shear, ull...i suspect a downgrade to 40 or 50...the playing field is completely stacked against it for at least three days

[Tireman4]

Look at the GFS analysis - it has the upper low that is now over the Keys centered north of the Yucatan for 18Z today. It's WAY off in its initialization. Note the strong NE winds across the Bahamas, right where the strong SOUTHWEST winds are seen in the WV loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

Maybe it has a drinking problem. I have heard that in models...lol....No no. .the models have underperformed this tropical season, that is for sure.

[SouthFLTropics]

Am I missing something...That says 18z on Tuesday, 8/15

[wxman57]

Am I missing something...That says 18z on Tuesday, 8/15

Hang on, Tropical Tidbits loaded an old map.

Whew! It's not as bad as I thought (the GFS):

[SFLcane]

Sooooo 57 what are you implying there is a chance lol.

[SouthFLTropics]

You had me going there for a minute 57.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the GFS you can see why it obliterates 92L when it get's north of Puerto Rico. The ULL that has developed and is dropping down from 30N and 60W runs smack into the path of 92L and then proceeds to travel in tandem with it almost all the way to Cuba. If the vorticity is able to maintain, and that's a big if, to the NW Bahamas it may have a chance there for development once the ULL moves SW over Cuba.

[Tireman4]

Sooooo 57 what are you implying there is a chance lol.

http://gph.is/Z5SBTA