ATL: HARVEY - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

Euro out to 144.

[Blown Away]

Yep, looks like 00z Euro is an outlier... GOM can relax a little...

[stormlover2013]

Can't relax when u have a system in carrib And it's 7-10 days away

[drezee]

Yep, looks like 00z Euro is an outlier... GOM can relax a little...

Run makes no sense...ridge falls a part to the north. Almost like frictional effects draw it inland. That is like the eye of a needle scenario...lets see the ensembles

[Blown Away]

Can't relax when u have a system in carrib And it's 7-10 days away

I said you could relax a "little"...

[hd44]

Jma is well north of the Euro .

[wxman57]

This is why you do NOT get excited about a single model run, especially one 8-9 days in the future!

Yeah, and I wouldn't trust this run either. Need some consistency before I'll buy it.

[Blown Away]

This is why you do NOT get excited about a single model run, especially one 8-9 days in the future!

Yeah, and I wouldn't trust this run either. Need some consistency before I'll buy it.

Euro has generally been showing a track into CA and out into lower BOC, the NGOM run was an outlier?

[stormlover2013]

Struggling to get pattern, they will keep struggling prob till about Monday.

[TheStormExpert]

ec shifting well south now. questionable if this even makes the BOC

trough does not dip nearly as far south this run

Yeah I was finding that hard to believe seeing such a deep trough dig into the Gulf only in late August, now if this was October it would be much more believable.

[ROCK]

Struggling to get pattern, they will keep struggling prob till about Monday.

agree...need more runs...but I am not even close to set in stone for a CA trip just yet.

[ROCK]

12Z HWRF seems to think SGOM. And we have had plenty of trofs make it down this summer....We are approaching Sept climo speaking.

add the 12Z CMC and 12Z NAVGEM for a STX trip.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS members mostly into Mexico, but there's still a spread. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are future shifts in track.

[wxmann_91]

For those holding onto a north-of-Mexico scenario just remember it's very difficult for storms as far south as the Caribbean to get pulled up into Texas, especially this early in the season. The 0Z Euro seems to be an outlier solution and it's a low-probability scenario relative to the one into Mexico, even this far out.

[perk]

For those holding onto a north-of-Mexico scenario just remember it's very difficult for storms as far south as the Caribbean to get pulled up into Texas, especially this early in the season. The 0Z Euro seems to be an outlier solution and it's a low-probability scenario relative to the one into Mexico, even this far out.

I know of no one holding on to such a belief.

[stormlover2013]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/august.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/september.gif


Never say never, climatology wise

[ROCK]

yeah well I believe that TUTT needs to move out of the way or none of these models are even remotely correct.

and I have access to 0 METS..waiting on the 0Z runs..

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Weaker and S than the previous through 72 hrs... Slightly better just before CA...

[stormreader]

12Z HWRF seems to think SGOM. And we have had plenty of trofs make it down this summer....We are approaching Sept climo speaking.

add the 12Z CMC and 12Z NAVGEM for a STX trip.

I hear 'ya. The south-Texas landfall could very well be the solution. But I think that earlier Euro run still has to be considered. Even a south-Texas forecast is a tremendous departure (considering the angle the storm would have to take) from the old Central American forecast. The south-Texas scenario is much closer to upper-Texas or even SW La forecast than the old parallel the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche. Its possible that the south-Texas forecast turns out to be the "conservative" one, relatively speaking.

[stormreader]

For those holding onto a north-of-Mexico scenario just remember it's very difficult for storms as far south as the Caribbean to get pulled up into Texas, especially this early in the season. The 0Z Euro seems to be an outlier solution and it's a low-probability scenario relative to the one into Mexico, even this far out.

I know of no one holding on to such a belief.

Going out on a limb and saying north of the border. A US landfall. We've had couple of very strong troughs already this year. Don't know if Euro is referring to that, or perhaps an unforeseen ULL which causes a more northern influence. Some models have suggested a slowing at that time in the southern GOM. Will say at least north of the border.