Alyono wrote:if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly
This season already is nothing like 2013
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Alyono wrote:if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly
NDG wrote:Alyono wrote:if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly
This season already is nothing like 2013
NDG wrote:Alyono wrote:if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly
This season already is nothing like 2013
CyclonicFury wrote:NDG wrote:Alyono wrote:if we only get a short lived TS out of all the tropical Atlantic activity like the EC is saying, then the 2013 parallel is something worth considering more strongly
This season already is nothing like 2013
Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.
Alyono wrote:there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer
Alyono wrote:there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer
Alyono wrote:there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer
hd44 wrote:Alyono wrote:there is something that is favoring a high number of very low ACE producing storms. Looks like the only development we will see in the Atlantic now is Harvey, a storm that may not be around much longer
Too many tutt lows ... saw this back in 2013.
Alyono wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:NDG wrote:
This season already is nothing like 2013
Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.
I'm talking about low ACE in total with a high number of named storms
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Alyono wrote:CyclonicFury wrote: Agreed. Every season is different. We are at 8-2-0, whereas 2013 was 5-0-0 at this time. I'm sure 2017 has had more ACE as well considering this season has actually had hurricanes so far (not in the MDR, but still hurricanes regardless). MDR conditions may not be much more favorable than 2013, but the Caribbean and subtropical Western Atlantic look MUCH more favorable than 2013.
I'm talking about low ACE in total with a high number of named storms
ACE is really a better determination of an active season rather than numbers overall. Would you agree?
tarheelprogrammer wrote:It is strange to see two strong waves in the Atlantic, and one weak TS. Yet, all of them are struggling just to maintain the status quo, in mid/late August. There are some rumblings from a few METs after reading Michael Ventrice's thoughts that September could be quiet, as in very quiet. Very strange given the cold neutral, and SST configuration.
Alyono wrote:what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.
I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight
Alyono wrote:what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.
I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Alyono wrote:what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.
I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight
Going to need a lot more activity in September and October to reach the numbers goal of many organizations. ACE is about to fall far behind as well.
WeatherEmperor wrote:Alyono wrote:what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.
I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight
So this begs the same question again from last year: Is the ATL transitioning to the Inactive Cycle again?
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Alyono wrote:what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.
I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight
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