ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Looking at the GFS you can see why it obliterates 92L when it get's north of Puerto Rico. The ULL that has developed and is dropping down from 30N and 60W runs smack into the path of 92L and then proceeds to travel in tandem with it almost all the way to Cuba. If the vorticity is able to maintain, and that's a big if, to the NW Bahamas it may have a chance there for development once the ULL moves SW over Cuba.

It will be a rough 72 hours. If the 30/60 low drops out to the SW in front, it could be game on.

[AutoPenalti]

Sooooo 57 what are you implying there is a chance lol.

http://gph.is/Z5SBTA

A chance for...?

[Nimbus]

The current 72 hour error must be a little larger than normal.
Even Minnesota Fats can't make the corner pocket if there are too many compounding bank shot errors.

[gatorcane]

92L is putting up quite a fight with new convection bursts popping on NW side:

[cycloneye]

But also outflow boundaries are spitting out.

[Steve H.]

92L continues to pulse convection this afternoon as it moves westward. It seems as though it will be beyond the influence of the ULL to it's north in the next 6-12 hours. The next challenge will be another ULL to it's NNW that is dropping southward - but that seems to be slowing it's southward progress as it is being influenced by a frontal boundary to it's north. We shall see what we shall see - there's a lot of energy with 92L and I think it would be foolish to write it off yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[alienstorm]

So looking at the difference between the GFS and CMC the GFS has the ULL at 30/60 diving south and going in tandem with 92AL westward. While the CMC has has the ULL diving SW into Cuba and having an ULH over 92L in the Central Bahamas. So we will see which one plays out.

[vbhoutex]

If 92L doesn't stop spitting out those outflow boundaries it is going to play heck gaining any ground for lack of better words. I know there are other factors involved, but that is "energy" leaving the convection trying to grow(ie collapsing tstorms).

[Nimbus]

This is a good puzzle whats going to win the outflow boundaries or new convection?
If it continues bursting like that and builds an anticyclone the forecast changes.

[nativefloridian]

This is a good puzzle whats going to win the outflow boundaries or new convection?
If it continues bursting like that and builds an anticyclone the forecast changes.

Maybe it's just shedding some loose skin in order to consolidate itself?

[Hammy]

If 92L doesn't stop spitting out those outflow boundaries it is going to play heck gaining any ground for lack of better words. I know there are other factors involved, but that is "energy" leaving the convection trying to grow(ie collapsing tstorms).

This is something I didn't see happening with pre-Gert. This probably won't develop, this and the fact that the upper air environment down the road is significantly less favorable than it was in Gert's case.

[MacTavish]

This is a good puzzle whats going to win the outflow boundaries or new convection?
If it continues bursting like that and builds an anticyclone the forecast changes.

Maybe it's just shedding some loose skin in order to consolidate itself?

Good chance that the LLC is becoming less organized and the convection is being maintained by a MLC which is being ventilated by the upper low.

[Craters]

Upper environment across almost the entire Atlantic basin is becoming hostile. I need to break out my old slide rule to count the number of ULL now. Doubt 92L gets upgraded in the short term.....MGC

Nice one, MGC! Yay, slide rules!!

[chaser1]

My .02C worth are that looking at the entire broad scale water vapor of the tropics (and sub-tropics), its pretty apparent that the there is quite a strong and progressive east to west flow over all. The large cold low centered near S. Florida is clearly moving WNW and warming. I do not see that large cut-off low directly north and trying to shred 92L dropping any further south and perhaps 92L will move west at a pace that will distance itself from it. As for the second cut-off low dropping south, I believe that it will progress a little further south, and then be forced southwest, then west (or WNW) over the next 3 or so days). None of all this to suggest that I'd bet big money that 92L will likely survive and eventually become strong. I see dry air as the biggest inhibiting factor that it'll soon encounter and that, along with what northerly shear that will exist to probably put a real hurting on the system this evening, tomorrow, and perhaps into Sunday. Much does depend on how much can maintain itself approaching the Bahamas over the weekend. It's logical to suggest that this will weaken in the near term but I just wouldn't go so far to suggest that this Invest is history and not to keep an eye on it. If there's any way that this system remains as convective as it presently is by this time tomorrow, I'd be putting in a phone call to the squadron and make sure there's a plane getting gassed up to check it out.

[AutoPenalti]

Gert looked way worse than this pre-genesis.

[Blown Away]

Last look before dark...

[chaser1]

I swear, I cant help but look at some of these small systems and nearly imagine them to be like a well defined meso-scale type "giant waterspout" somehow maintaining its cyclonic integrity while zipping westerly along at a pretty fast clip and remaining just above the surface all the while.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I swear, I cant help but look at some of these small systems and nearly imagine them to be like a well defined meso-scale type "giant waterspout" somehow maintaining its cyclonic integrity while zipping westerly along at a pretty fast clip and remaining just above the surface all the while.

This storm is on its deathbed

[Aric Dunn]

its becoming so pathetic these days.. the definition, the point, the science, has almost completely been lost.

maybe we need a sub committee of actual scientists something the public cant see or the politicians. this is ridiculous.

[Tuffy]

I don't think so. It just cleared it's first major obstacle, tightened, and jogged west. Now, we'll see what it can do with the dry air. It doesn't have much help in sight for that, though.