ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

this good news we like rain here in miami not storm

[rickybobby]

This topic was active 24 hrs ago and now hardly anyone is posting lol

[nativefloridian]

its becoming so pathetic these days.. the definition, the point, the science, has almost completely been lost.

maybe we need a sub committee of actual scientists something the public cant see or the politicians. this is ridiculous.

I, for one, greatly appreciate reading posts by those individuals who are knowledgeable in meteorology and atmospheric conditions. I find it very interesting and have learned quite a bit from some of you in the years I've been a member of this group. Thanks to those of you who provide insightful information for those of us who are not as educated on these issues.

[AutoPenalti]

This topic was active 24 hrs ago and now hardly anyone is posting lol

No model support, encountering 3 ULL's and a TUTT, of course there's nobody now, I still have hope for this system. It's been persistent.

[chaser1]

I swear, I cant help but look at some of these small systems and nearly imagine them to be like a well defined meso-scale type "giant waterspout" somehow maintaining its cyclonic integrity while zipping westerly along at a pretty fast clip and remaining just above the surface all the while.

This storm is on its deathbed

"..... I agree that the inner core albeit small, looks fairly well defined & might easily be accompanied by gusts to Tropical storms strength. Lixion, I dont think their much more than 100 miles east of the Virgin Islands right now but yes I know that large sail boats are subject to risk from quickly changing seas and wind direction, as well as T.S. force winds. Look, all i'm saying is that Thetxhurricanemaster said 92L was definitely on its deathbed so you might as well just drop this feature from the present TWO now. Huh? No, I don't have NIgel Conde's phone number but I'm sure he'd say the same thing...."

[gatorcane]

Looks like there is a pocket of decreasing shear ahea of 92l before it runs into the next upper-level low

[chaser1]

its becoming so pathetic these days.. the definition, the point, the science, has almost completely been lost.

maybe we need a sub committee of actual scientists something the public cant see or the politicians. this is ridiculous.

Aric, not sure exactly where you're going with this but I for one really wish that we had a plane or drone fly this thing. Just look at this things' inner core?? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

I for one am a bit intrigued by its appearance and wish we had a decent sampling of its environment along with a couple reliable models that seemed to function far better 10 years ago than they seem to now. C'mon, lets get old school and call out a few ships to report back conditions. So here's a serious question, are we experiencing a lack of data (ship, bouy, recon, etc) and/or advances to atmospheric modeling as a result of Federal budget cutbacks? If not, than it does beg the question as to what Climatological events or scientific setbacks do you think are occurring that we are either less efficient to foresee or at least to better understand?

[sunnyday]

Will someone please tell me when we should know when and where 92l is going to make landfall? I've seen an interesting variety of conjectures, but when should there be a time and place given to the public?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like there is a pocket of decreasing shear ahea of 92l before it runs into the next upper-level low

Or does it run into the ULL, that's the question as this might have a chance the next 24 hrs or does the ULL stay to its west as an outflow channel we shall see because in one case this becomes barely anything and in case 2 a major hurricane so I'm not betting on anything

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR. Looks to me like it's passing the first ULL.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16395&y=6762&z=2&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Hurricaneman]

This should not be written off, I see 2 possible outcomes, it moves into the next ULL in 24 hrs and fails to develop and here's scenario 2 where the ULL moves with this system and is a help for it being used as an outflow channel which could lead to deepening so we'll see in 24 hrs which is right

[chaser1]

Will someone please tell me when we should know when and where 92l is going to make landfall? I've seen an interesting variety of conjectures, but when should there be a time and place given to the public?

When the good folks at NHC begin to get a really good handle on it themselves. Where necessary T.S. and Hurricane Watches are generally hoisted up to 72 hours in advance of potential conditions impacting any given area. Some long track hurricanes can be more easily tracked and accurately forecasted for days well in advance. Ever watch football? Some games are blowouts and are not even watched because the outcome seems so obvious. Other games ya gotta play to know the outcome because no one quite exactly knows. It is the unknown which breeds conjecture.

[northjaxpro]

This should not be written off, I see 2 possible outcomes, it moves into the next ULL in 24 hrs and fails to develop and here's scenario 2 where the ULL moves with this system and is a help for it being used as an outflow channel which could lead to deepening so we'll see in 24 hrs which is right

This sums up the situation rather nicely.

Hopefully we will have a clue about this by Sunday evening.

[chaser1]

SLIDER IR. Looks to me like it's passing the first ULL.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16395&y=6762&z=2&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

What a great view! Wish I could incorporate that as my desktop screen-saver, with auto refresh somehow programmed in. Probably can be too but that skill set just isnt in my personal tool box LOL

[otowntiger]

I know many get reminded of Andrew every time they see an area of interest in this part of the Atlantic during this time of year but imo Andrew is a once in a lifetime event just like 2005 was.

I agree completely. Another Andrew likely won't happen in many of our lifetimes.

[chaser1]

I know many get reminded of Andrew every time they see an area of interest in this part of the Atlantic during this time of year but imo Andrew is a once in a lifetime event just like 2005 was.

I agree completely. Another Andrew likely won't happen in many of our lifetimes.

Exactly, why the sneaker storm that rapidly deepens prior to landfall in the Gulf, Florida or elsewhere.... might only be a Cat. 3 that's 4 times as large as Andrew. No worries though, never happen

[cycloneye]

Down to 50%-50%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to
strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the
surface circulation has become less defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while this system moves
west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical
cyclone formation appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[smithtim]

For the record...I don't subscribe to that conspiracy theory...I was just being sarcastic. However, when there is no other explanation, all theories, no matter how crazy must be entertained. Spock said something to that effect.

Not on this message board. Just in case there was any doubt. I don't even like joking about it because it can bring crazies out of the woodwork that the mods have to deal with.

None of you are crazy, are you?

Yes. I subscribe to the crazy and wacky notion that statistical anomalies actually occur without further explanations needed.

As a PhD that teaches graduate level statistics at a university I've gotta agree with that. Generally our conclusions read something like we are 95% confident that... So yes there is an explanation for oddities on individual trial! And let's not forget two things about MH: Firstly, just last year we had a close call in October with an almost Florida landfall of a storm very close to that MH level. And, secondly yes Andrew was a crazy storm for SFLa ( probably the next last comparison was 1935 labor day Fl Keys storm ) but you can't just focus on one town or part state rather have to look at whole. IMHO it'd be interesting to study say 1900 - 2000 to look at the average timeline of landfalling MH. From living in Florida my knowledge says 1926 Miami & 1928 Okeechobee & 1935 labor day then. Betsy & Donna & Dora in 60s then Andrew & Opal in 90s but I'm probably forgetting some? I geuss my point is maybe 12 years isn't even close to out of statically norm????

Now back to 92L I don't think we should be letting our guard down quite yet. It may let up during next 24-48 hours, but the bottom line is it is August and this wave will be passing through an area near the Bahamas which is historically ( or should I say statistically LOL) a very hot spot for rapid development....

[floridasun78]

bye bye 92l you see other tutt coming south soon wx will bring born

[otowntiger]

I know many get reminded of Andrew every time they see an area of interest in this part of the Atlantic during this time of year but imo Andrew is a once in a lifetime event just like 2005 was.

I agree completely. Another Andrew likely won't happen in many of our lifetimes.

Exactly, why the sneaker storm that rapidly deepens prior to landfall in the Gulf, Florida or elsewhere.... might only be a Cat. 3 that's 4 times as large as Andrew. No worries though, never happen

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.