ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

The NHC went from "Less" to "Marginally" conducive Is that an improvement??

[Bocadude85]

I agree completely. Another Andrew likely won't happen in many of our lifetimes.

Exactly, why the sneaker storm that rapidly deepens prior to landfall in the Gulf, Florida or elsewhere.... might only be a Cat. 3 that's 4 times as large as Andrew. No worries though, never happen

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

[Ntxw]

Sunset

[Sciencerocks]

Sunset

https://i.imgbox.com/m7aKtDf7.gif

Looks pretty good with decent inflow on the southern side hinting at a closed LLC.

[Nimbus]

Down to 50%-50%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to
strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the
surface circulation has become less defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while this system moves
west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical
cyclone formation appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

So we are down to the odds of a coin toss.
No, I don't have any special insight just thought we should keep a copy of the official forecast on the page.

[gatorcane]

One thing I am noticing...the large upper low to the NNE of invest doesn't seem to be digging SW like the GFS shows and the PV streamer low to the NNE seems to be moving south. The streamer low should start to move SSW soon according to the GFS then eventually SW then W.

[chaser1]

Exactly, why the sneaker storm that rapidly deepens prior to landfall in the Gulf, Florida or elsewhere.... might only be a Cat. 3 that's 4 times as large as Andrew. No worries though, never happen

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

Those more inclined to believe in Unicorns may not be interested, but I just stumbled on a new thread in Talkin' Tropics created by Tolakram aptly named "Andrew". Next Thursday will be the 25th Anniversary. With 92L pushing westward while impressively fighting unlikely conditions, some may wish to skip the Netflix and watch the (2 hr. Channel 4) video over in the new Andrew thread. (Maybe that could serve as a collective spot for others wishing to share or have any Andrew related photographs or video?)

[stormreader]

One thing I am noticing...the large upper low to the NNE of invest doesn't seem to be digging SW like the GFS shows and the PV streamer low to the NNE seems to be moving south. The streamer low should start to move SSW soon according to the GFS then eventually SW then W.

Harvey looks a little more organized on that map. Conditions ahead might be more conducive than previously thought.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2017081900, , BEST, 0, 193N, 552W, 25, 1012, LO

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is getting past that brutal north shear from the large upper-low to the NE it was getting hit with all day. Big convection burst in progress.

[sma10]

Hmm, strange. Latest SSD positioning update increased the T number to 2.0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[AxaltaRacing24]

Honestly, I do not think this is on its deathbed just yet.

[otowntiger]

Exactly, why the sneaker storm that rapidly deepens prior to landfall in the Gulf, Florida or elsewhere.... might only be a Cat. 3 that's 4 times as large as Andrew. No worries though, never happen

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

granted it was an anamously busy 10-15 years in Florida for cat fours, if in fact they were all truly 4's, but still only one cat 5 every 50 years is pretty uncommon.

[Sciencerocks]

Honestly, I do not think this is on its deathbed just yet.

Far from it! Looks pretty good to me and deserving of that 2.0t above.

[sma10]

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

granted it was an anamously busy 10-15 years in Florida for cat fours, if in fact they were all truly 4's, but still only one cat 5 every 50 years is pretty uncommon.

This is actually a fun topic.
It seems that with 3 landfalling cat 5s in history, occurring in 1935, 1969 and 1992 that it would be reasonable to assume that it's a once in 25-30 year event. But who knows? Hurricane history is relatively young - how many years of good history do we have? 150? If you consider that hurricanes have been landfalling on our continent for many millions of years, we probably don't have a large enough sample size. For our purposes though, 25-30 years is a good enough guess ... meaning we're due soon for another.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing I am noticing...the large upper low to the NNE of invest doesn't seem to be digging SW like the GFS shows and the PV streamer low to the NNE seems to be moving south. The streamer low should start to move SSW soon according to the GFS then eventually SW then W.

Harvey looks a little more organized on that map. Conditions ahead might be more conducive than previously thought.

If Harvey is more organized and manages to get stronger that should induce even more unfavorable conditions over it.

[sma10]

Down to 50%-50%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to
strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the
surface circulation has become less defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while this system moves
west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical
cyclone formation appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Subtle change in verbiage here. Could easily have written "environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable" but instead went with "marginally conducive" which is quite different. Hedging bets maybe?

[jason1912]

[smithtim]

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

granted it was an anamously busy 10-15 years in Florida for cat fours, if in fact they were all truly 4's, but still only one cat 5 every 50 years is pretty uncommon.

This is actually a fun topic.
It seems that with 3 landfalling cat 5s in history, occurring in 1935, 1969 and 1992 that it would be reasonable to assume that it's a once in 25-30 year event. But who knows? Hurricane history is relatively young - how many years of good history do we have? 150? If you consider that hurricanes have been landfalling on our continent for many millions of years, we probably don't have a large enough sample size. For our purposes though, 25-30 years is a good enough guess ... meaning we're due soon for another.

Good point! And the next one back is 1900 Galveston which further fits that 30 year cycle!

But, I think 150 years is actually stretching it. If you look up data & history of 1926 Miami or 1928 Okeechobee the data is limited to sketchy ( note that was start of depression so probably the last thing they were worried about...). However, it seems more available for great labor day 1935, maybe because so much has been written about that devastating storm, but either way that's probably a fair starting point to take = less than 100 years of good data?

[caneseddy]

One thing that's giving me pause about thinking it's all clear here in South Florida was the comment made by wxman57 earlier today:

"May have already peaked, but I wouldn't turn my back on it if I lived in southern Florida."