ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Magic trough leaves it behind...Hello Outer Banks!!!

[Steve]

Crosses the Outer Banks and goes into NE NC and is around Norfolk & VA Beach at 222.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone have the UKMET output?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to run right up Chesapeake Bay and head to DC

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have the UKMET output?

Here you go:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.0N 76.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2017 96 27.7N 76.7W 1010 23
1200UTC 23.08.2017 108 27.8N 76.8W 1006 26
0000UTC 24.08.2017 120 27.8N 75.7W 1000 35
1200UTC 24.08.2017 132 28.3N 74.5W 996 41
0000UTC 25.08.2017 144 29.3N 72.7W 990 47

[Steve]

Looks like a Cat 3 on the CMC and a recurve UKM

[SouthFLTropics]

UKMET brings it to our door and sends it NE. GFS is way faster than CMC and UKMET.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like a Cat 3 on the CMC and a recurve UKM

Yep. The UK "Matthews" FL on this run before heading NE

[SouthFLTropics]

For a brief moment the HWRF really likes 92L...and then loses it.

[Sciencerocks]

The cmc 00z is really something and pretty much does a Irene into NC/Virgina. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

[Sciencerocks]

The cmc 00z is really something and pretty much does a Irene into NC/Virgina. Hell, more of a sandy west-northwest back then north but you get the idea. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

[Bocadude85]

Euro showing a stronger vort now also...maybe a trend of possible development in the next few runs? Euro also brings 92L right up the coast of Fla similar to the UKMET and Canadian..Euro is just farther west.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro showing a stronger vort now also...maybe a trend of possible development in the next few runs? Euro also brings 92L right up the coast of Fla similar to the UKMET and Canadian..Euro is just farther west.

That would essentially put SE FL in the crosshairs.

[OuterBanker]

The cmc 00z is really something and pretty much does a Irene into NC/Virgina. Hell, more of a sandy west-northwest back then north but you get the idea. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

Really? I would be pulling what is left of my hair out. But, it's the Canadian. To be used for entertainment purposes only. And right now it's the only one providing entertainment.

[SFLcane]

12z models Sharp rise in intensity but also most recurve out to sea.

[Bocadude85]

12z models Sharp rise in intensity but also most recurve out to sea.

Like always it will come down to timing, GFS and Euro and faster and therefore make it to Fla before it recurves.

[N2FSU]

12z CMC much further west with landfall SE Florida.

[jlauderdal]

12z CMC much further west with landfall SE Florida.

We get destroyed by model.runs year after year

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[N2FSU]

12z CMC much further west with landfall SE Florida.

We get destroyed by model.runs year after year

This is true.

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[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW...CMC at 102 hours