Alyono wrote:BZSTORM wrote:I appreciate most of you on this board are concerned about TS Harvey after it has crossed Belize/Yucatan and USA threat but there are still Belizean, Hondurans and Mexicans who right now are more concerned with where Harvey will landfall and on our borders and intensity. The models even at 3 days out are still all over the place changing intensity and route almost run to run. I am fast coming to conclusion that we might not know this until Monday or IF/when there is a more decisive move NW to W on Sunday. I would appreciate the pro mets on the board for their take on when we might have more conclusive idea as so far model tracks almost seem to be reruns of previous years tracks for other storms. What I can add is climatically Belize has felt hotter and more humid than previous years, since April like we are 2 months ahead of ourselves for average temperatures, the humidity has been especially higher then normal, Belize water table is already at max, so even 3" rain will cause flooding in Belize. Also the Tropical wave currently across Eastern Cuba which is travelling slower than TS Harvey so not sure if that would cross Belize and Yucatan before TS reaches Gulf of Honduras there appears to be almost 8mph difference in speed right now. Could any of the pro-mets explain if or how is this likely to affect TS Harvey i.e regeneration or disruption I don't know enough about the physics of one system on another. All I know right now is this much uncertainty on track always makes me a bit jumpy. We are always prepared for worst here and hope for the best but Belize is a small country and when you have the whole country as a target it narrows down where you can move to get away for a storm. Many thanks for any input/observations 16 yrs watching these systems and I am still learning.
the track up to Belize has been high confidence. The models are also showing the heavy rains south fo the center as it impacts Honduras, so the threat of major flooding is high. Cannot rule out a repeat of Matthew from 2010 in Honduras
Thanks Alyono for that observation - TS Matthew did indeed bring major flooding to Honduras and Belize and did allot of coastal damage for piers in Southern Belize. You don't need a a full out cyclone to make a disaster. Fortunately Belize has a good track record for ppl listening to warnings and NEMO advisories to move to higher location if in flood zone, so we have much lower mortality rates for storms in our region, most being zero a trend I hope continues.