2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
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- Andrew92
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
That certainly is food for thought, and it does throw the question if CSU's prediction of above-average overall ACE activity into question. I mean, how long realistically will Harvey last in the Caribbean? Or could it regenerate further west, and/or in the Bay of Campeche?
I guess my question is, how long does this suppressed phase last? A week, maybe two, or even a month? I am guessing the latter seems quite unlikely, but this is outside what I know well, so I am trying to learn here too.
-Andrew92
I guess my question is, how long does this suppressed phase last? A week, maybe two, or even a month? I am guessing the latter seems quite unlikely, but this is outside what I know well, so I am trying to learn here too.
-Andrew92
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Andrew92 wrote:That certainly is food for thought, and it does throw the question if CSU's prediction of above-average overall ACE activity into question. I mean, how long realistically will Harvey last in the Caribbean? Or could it regenerate further west, and/or in the Bay of Campeche?
I guess my question is, how long does this suppressed phase last? A week, maybe two, or even a month? I am guessing the latter seems quite unlikely, but this is outside what I know well, so I am trying to learn here too.
-Andrew92
In regards to how long the upcoming suppressed phase will last, I will do my best to post updates from Michael Ventrice as soon as they become available. My best guess is a couple of weeks but lets see.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
keeping in mind that Ventrice also said it would be hyper active during the past couple of weeks when it is going to end up well below average, it may be time to start worrying about the upcoming football season
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Alyono wrote:keeping in mind that Ventrice also said it would be hyper active during the past couple of weeks when it is going to end up well below average, it may be time to start worrying about the upcoming football season
Who dat?
Bastardi brought up an interesting point today in his Saturday Summary regarding what he called, "the hyper-ACE years of 2003 through 2005" vs. 2017. There was generally much higher than normal pressure across the Arctic in those years (or whatever period he sampled in those years) vs. this year where the look is the opposite. The similarity, though, is the generally lower pressures in the Gulf which would continue to lead to systems getting to the west. Oddly enough, he says look out below 6-10 days regardless if it's 92L or a piling up of energy or whatever, but there will be a cool high across most of the middle of the country which is a pattern signal for tropical activity to the south. That goes for the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE Coast of FL.
He also cautioned again that weak looking systems farther out can get stronger closer in.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Alyono wrote:keeping in mind that Ventrice also said it would be hyper active during the past couple of weeks when it is going to end up well below average, it may be time to start worrying about the upcoming football season
Yeah, I thought there was something up that his forecasts didn't seem quite right. I'm not ruling what he is saying out, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.
I can see the MDR staying relatively unfavorable near the peak weeks, though not entirely enough that one or two storms can't sneak in there. But I just have a hard time believing that things are going to be completely unfavorable all throughout the Atlantic between now and September 25 - a month-long span going through September 10, the peak day for activity. I know the range starts on the 7th, but with things hostile now nearing the normally active part, is that really sustainable, especially in the western half of the Atlantic? Maybe if it were El Nino, or similar EPAC SST profile....but it's not.
-Andrew92
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
NDG wrote:You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.
I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.
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- Andrew92
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
I mentioned 1985 earlier, and on second thought, it may not be entirely unprecedented what Mike Ventrice was saying. After Elena hit on September 2, the next Atlantic hurricane wasn't until the 21st. That certainly could be said to be a year where we "couldn't buy a hurricane" for a window pretty close to when he is saying. Again, I take what he is saying with a grain of salt, but it's not wise to rule anything a pro met like him says out.
Yet, that season was still a memorable one. It only takes one, and that one had three big ones, and almost four had Kate not weakened before landfall. And the tropical Atlantic (say, south of 20 degrees) was as close to dead as can be that year, in a non-El Nino year! The Caribbean? Danny came from depression that formed there, but didn't intensify until in the Gulf. And Elena was somehow named over Cuba, but was otherwise similar to Danny, though stronger due to being over water longer.
Again...maybe a storm like Elena before the peak? Or maybe a late-bloomer that struggles until further west, probably near the Bahamas? Don't know about Juan or Kate though, as those two seem more like oddballs to me, though I suppose a storm like either of those that late could happen too. It would be rare though, that's for sure.
-Andrew92
Yet, that season was still a memorable one. It only takes one, and that one had three big ones, and almost four had Kate not weakened before landfall. And the tropical Atlantic (say, south of 20 degrees) was as close to dead as can be that year, in a non-El Nino year! The Caribbean? Danny came from depression that formed there, but didn't intensify until in the Gulf. And Elena was somehow named over Cuba, but was otherwise similar to Danny, though stronger due to being over water longer.
Again...maybe a storm like Elena before the peak? Or maybe a late-bloomer that struggles until further west, probably near the Bahamas? Don't know about Juan or Kate though, as those two seem more like oddballs to me, though I suppose a storm like either of those that late could happen too. It would be rare though, that's for sure.
-Andrew92
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.
I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.
Has the Caribbean really been that unfavorable compared to average? It is very normal to see weak storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean. July was hostile in the Caribbean, but this is very normal. We also had Franklin in the NW Caribbean earlier in the month. So far the Caribbean has definitely been more favorable than 2013-15.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
CyclonicFury wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:You guys heard it, season canceled, it makes sense what they say because there's a raging El Nino in the Pacific, the MDR's SST's are way below average, shear is way above average, ......etc.
I think I heard this crap about this same time last year
This may be yet another season in which activity may not really peak until later in the second half of September into October, way too early to call it season canceled.
I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.
Has the Caribbean really been that unfavorable compared to average? It is very normal to see weak storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean. July was hostile in the Caribbean, but this is very normal. We also had Franklin in the NW Caribbean earlier in the month. So far the Caribbean has definitely been more favorable than 2013-15.
Everything checks out when you compare it to the 30 year average. The CIMSS charts show rather favorable wind shear. But all these systems entering the Caribbean are dying. Franklin was a messy TS when in the NW Caribbean. It's only until they enter the BOC that they develop.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Kingarabian wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
I gotta admit that thus far, the Caribbean in all vicinities has been unfavorable for some reason.
Has the Caribbean really been that unfavorable compared to average? It is very normal to see weak storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean. July was hostile in the Caribbean, but this is very normal. We also had Franklin in the NW Caribbean earlier in the month. So far the Caribbean has definitely been more favorable than 2013-15.
Everything checks out when you compare it to the 30 year average. The CIMSS charts show rather favorable wind shear. But all these systems entering the Caribbean are dying. Franklin was a messy TS when in the NW Caribbean. It's only until they enter the BOC that they develop.
Bret and Don's quick death was to be expected for the time of year. The Eastern Caribbean is very hostile early in the season, and this year was no exception. Harvey struggling is no surprise, it's a classic example of the John Hope Rule where a weak TC struggles to get going in the Eastern Caribbean.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
I noticed that Gert sort of mimicked Banyan last week. There were times they looked very similar. 93W looks to be spinning up pretty far west/east. Doesn't look like it will get too strong, and it's small. There's a TCFA. A lot of times WPAC implications are a week week and a half ahead. But sometimes there are similar setups for the Asian and N.A. Coasts.
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- Andrew92
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
One more similarity to 1985: the ACE thus far compared to that year is almost identical! By my calculations, I came up with about 16.693 for the ACE for the first four storms that year, and currently this year is not even a tenth of a point above that.
-Andrew92
-Andrew92
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Andrew92 wrote:One more similarity to 1985: the ACE thus far compared to that year is almost identical! By my calculations, I came up with about 16.693 for the ACE for the first four storms that year, and currently this year is not even a tenth of a point above that.
-Andrew92
Actually, my calculations were wrong! I didn't account for points on the best track at landfall. 1985's ACE was just 15.63 instead. So we are actually ahead of that year overall by a little bit.
-Andrew92
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
What is causing all these TUTT's and ULL's to parade across the Atlantic this season?
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
TheStormExpert wrote:What is causing all these TUTT's and ULL's to parade across the Atlantic this season?
Seems like a lot of the concentric ones moving across are originating north of waves coming off of Africa. Like dry heat cyclones which I think are helping keep some conditions across the ocean drier. Some years it seems like you have to have them for some of the named storm developments. But that is more of a La Niña trait. Neutral seasons always seem to have elements of both sides. And there have been static TUTTs as well as cut offs migrating across. Combination year. I think the ULL that was at 30/60 and spun off toward 92L was a split from a static TUTT. And that's more of a La Niña outcome.
Also I think some of the waves this year, while many have been smaller over the ocean, have been vigorous. So the atmospheric reflection right above the waves, in theory, should be too
We will see if the ULLs are harbingers of doom or great protectors within the next month.
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
I'm still wondering what we are getting ACE wise out of this pattern burst as it's still very unclear. I had 2 developments out of possibly 4 systems with max ACE of 25. We got a tiny bit with Harvey. He could peter out or he could add a few points if he makes a run for the NE Mexican Coast. 92L may or may not directly be the system showing up in modeling over the next week to 10 days. Though we could get 8-10 points depending on if it can reach hurricane status. I think the 3rd wave that looked like a recurve probably won't do anything as it appears to be getting entrained into the ULL in the middle of the ocean. . And the 4th one is just off of Africa. That's an unknown.
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
lol Didn't know where else to post this, but it is funny. Very, very true!
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/899427722367315968
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/899427722367315968
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
Another funny one, though I would likely call this the post 2005 map.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability
August has been more hostile for development than I thought particularly the second half has been a surprise so far. That said I do think we will see a burst of quality activity in September and/or October. Seems like some of our biggest storms in recent years past have happened in late September or October. With El Nino looking like "La Nada" (even some more cooling than originally expected happening) I think we see a big Caribbean storm or two form.
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