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gatorcane wrote:I am leaning toward development but after it has moved past Florida recurving offshore the SE US. Not only is there some model support but seems storms like to develop with this type of track in years past especially once they get above 30N and out of the tropics.
SFLcane wrote:gatorcane wrote:I am leaning toward development but after it has moved past Florida recurving offshore the SE US. Not only is there some model support but seems storms like to develop with this type of track in years past especially once they get above 30N and out of the tropics.
This! Um yep we almost had a major hurricane up around 40n. Its the new MDR apparently
NDG wrote:SFLcane wrote:gatorcane wrote:I am leaning toward development but after it has moved past Florida recurving offshore the SE US. Not only is there some model support but seems storms like to develop with this type of track in years past especially once they get above 30N and out of the tropics.
This! Um yep we almost had a major hurricane up around 40n. Its the new MDR apparently
Just one hurricane which it came out of the tropics so far this season north of 30N which took advantage of the warm loop current and moved parallel to the mid and UL winds is not unusual to see.
Most of the tropical developments this year has been in the deep tropics unlike other years like 2012, we are not seeing them develop in the middle of the Atlantic MDR because of the continuing SAL outbreaks but as soon as they become less frequent like it usually does later in September we should see a few systems develop this year, IMO.
TheStormExpert wrote:NDG wrote:SFLcane wrote:
This! Um yep we almost had a major hurricane up around 40n. Its the new MDR apparently
Just one hurricane which it came out of the tropics so far this season north of 30N which took advantage of the warm loop current and moved parallel to the mid and UL winds is not unusual to see.
Most of the tropical developments this year has been in the deep tropics unlike other years like 2012, we are not seeing them develop in the middle of the Atlantic MDR because of the continuing SAL outbreaks but as soon as they become less frequent like it usually does later in September we should see a few systems develop this year, IMO.
I would've thought these SAL Outbreaks would've already been MUCH less potent by August 20th. Either way there has indeed been an abundant amount of tropical systems at or south of 20N in the Atlantic but they all have been weak and short-lived. Clearly SAL isn't the only negative factor hindering tropical development so far this season, you also have shear from TUTT's and ULL's.
LarryWx wrote:From the well-respected and very knowledgeable Eric Webb at another BB:
"NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert."
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