ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization in association with the remnants
of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed
circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves
west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and into the Bay
of Campeche by midweek. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
currently enroute and should provide a better assessment of the
structure of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[stormreader]

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization in association with the remnants
of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed
circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it
could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves
west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and into the Bay
of Campeche by midweek. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
currently enroute and should provide a better assessment of the
structure of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Well those percentages really jacked up from the last advisory. Definitely correlates with what we've been seeing with our eyes since overnight.

[NDG]

Recon has not found an LLC, circulation remains more like a sharp trough axis.

[Hammy]

Recon has not found an LLC, circulation remains more like a sharp trough axis.

If I recall, the winds yesterday were closer to a 90 degree angle (all were SE, E, or NE) but today there's a large area of no wind, and some of the south, so there's probably closer to being closed today than it was yesterday.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Recon has not found an LLC, circulation remains more like a sharp trough axis.

If I recall, the winds yesterday were closer to a 90 degree angle (all were SE, E, or NE) but today there's a large area of no wind, and some of the south, so there's probably closer to being closed today than it was yesterday.

They found some promising NNW winds and SSW winds....
This isn't closed but it definitely is improving the trades are still high in this general area once it gets past 80W it will find ripe conditions more than likely!

[NDG]

Recon has not found an LLC, circulation remains more like a sharp trough axis.

If I recall, the winds yesterday were closer to a 90 degree angle (all were SE, E, or NE) but today there's a large area of no wind, and some of the south, so there's probably closer to being closed today than it was yesterday.

They found some promising NNW winds and SSW winds....
This isn't closed but it definitely is improving the trades are still high in this general area once it gets past 80W it will find ripe conditions more than likely!

Yeah, better than yesterday evening. If not by tonight definitely by tomorrow morning a defined LLC should form in the western Caribbean where winds are almost dead calm today.

[Alyono]

look where the aircraft is finding the wind shift. Back between 76 and 77W. Now, check out where the convection is. Well to the west.

This is still heavily sheared

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

look where the aircraft is finding the wind shift. Back between 76 and 77W. Now, check out where the convection is. Well to the west.

This is still heavily sheared

Yeah but this will end once it gets near 80 W where the trades start to slow so expect conditions to continue to improve for Excel Harvey

[Alyono]

look where the aircraft is finding the wind shift. Back between 76 and 77W. Now, check out where the convection is. Well to the west.

This is still heavily sheared

Yeah but this will end once it gets near 80 W where the trades start to slow so expect conditions to continue to improve for Excel Harvey

it's sheared from the EAST. Meaning, a slowdown by itself will not help the system. Need the upper winds to drop off

[Cpv17]

look where the aircraft is finding the wind shift. Back between 76 and 77W. Now, check out where the convection is. Well to the west.

This is still heavily sheared

Yeah but this will end once it gets near 80 W where the trades start to slow so expect conditions to continue to improve for Excel Harvey

it's sheared from the EAST. Meaning, a slowdown by itself will not help the system. Need the upper winds to drop off

Conditions have improved for development over the last 12-24 hours. That's why the NHC increased the odds to 70% now.

[Alyono]

Yeah but this will end once it gets near 80 W where the trades start to slow so expect conditions to continue to improve for Excel Harvey

it's sheared from the EAST. Meaning, a slowdown by itself will not help the system. Need the upper winds to drop off

Conditions have improved for development over the last 12-24 hours. That's why the NHC increased the odds to 70% now.

conditions are better, but still not close to ideal

[xironman]

I noticed the winds at 25K feet were 30kts approaching the area. Not conductive. I would like them to sample west, just to see what is going on under the convection.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The area of lowest pressure is very broad. It would need to tighten significantly for anything to occur.

[Alyono]

I noticed the winds at 25K feet were 30kts approaching the area. Not conductive. I would like them to sample west, just to see what is going on under the convection.

that's the shear over it. Structure now appears to be about the same as it was yesterday at this time. I know SHIPS immediately drops the shear, but yesterday, it said the shear should be about 5 kts now. Clearly, that's not the case. It still looks to be around 15-20 kts as this may not be south of the upper high

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I noticed the winds at 25K feet were 30kts approaching the area. Not conductive. I would like them to sample west, just to see what is going on under the convection.

that's the shear over it. Structure now appears to be about the same as it was yesterday at this time. I know SHIPS immediately drops the shear, but yesterday, it said the shear should be about 5 kts now. Clearly, that's not the case. It still looks to be around 15-20 kts as this may not be south of the upper high

I'm expecting conditions to become more favorable in about 12 Hours then it will take off

[Cpv17]

I noticed the winds at 25K feet were 30kts approaching the area. Not conductive. I would like them to sample west, just to see what is going on under the convection.

that's the shear over it. Structure now appears to be about the same as it was yesterday at this time. I know SHIPS immediately drops the shear, but yesterday, it said the shear should be about 5 kts now. Clearly, that's not the case. It still looks to be around 15-20 kts as this may not be south of the upper high

I'm expecting conditions to become more favorable in about 12 Hours then it will take off

That's when dmax will be approaching so that's possible.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

that's the shear over it. Structure now appears to be about the same as it was yesterday at this time. I know SHIPS immediately drops the shear, but yesterday, it said the shear should be about 5 kts now. Clearly, that's not the case. It still looks to be around 15-20 kts as this may not be south of the upper high

I'm expecting conditions to become more favorable in about 12 Hours then it will take off

That's when dmax will be approaching so that's possible.

I meant overall because wind shear will drop completely once this reaches the Gulf of Honduras

[ScottNAtlanta]

That was an interesting abrupt left turn from recon. Pressure also dropped a full MB since the turn...lowest so far. Perhaps something is forming further west

[Alyono]

the wave axis is at 77.4W

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

the wave axis is at 77.4W

Which means that the shear is still there but dry air is down and it's moving into a better environment tomorrow
Also are you sure ?