ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pgoss11]

Think we need to watch this one east of Florida once it interacts with the frontal boundary. May see something forming next weekend

The 18z GFS seems to indicate that too

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. Convection building east of swirl north of Puerto Rico and over 850mb vort to NW where 92l is tracking:

[bevgo]

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[NDG]

Visible sat loop before sunset. Mid level vorticity north of P.R. is on the SE quadrant of the low level vorticity.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, there clearly is a circulation there. Now, we watch and wait. If the models are to be believed, this will be slowing down Tuesday, and hanging around FL until Friday. Certainly a lot of time for something to develop, so this will be a real time watch and wait situation.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm going to guess the 2/5 day probs are raised 10% in a half hour.

[bevgo]

I'll make a donation to S2K in whoever's name (s) who help us

[Blown Away]

I'm going to guess the 2/5 day probs are raised 10% in a half hour.

IF the NHC going to buy into the circulation just N of PR they will need to raise those %'s soon...
I'll say 30/50 at 8pm...

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to guess the 2/5 day probs are raised 10% in a half hour.

IF the NHC going to buy into the circulation just N of PR they will need to raise those %'s soon...
I'll say 30/50 at 8pm...

There's also convection popping there

[drezee]

The low near PR is just an eddy from earlier convection. Watch the Low Level fort to the ME. It is the only game in town

[Evil Jeremy]

That MLC near PR looks to me to be decaying. It's detached from the concentrated vorticitiy to the NW.

[Blown Away]

The low near PR is just an eddy from earlier convection. Watch the Low Level fort to the ME. It is the only game in town

18z GFS spins up a low from this area that merges becomes a system off mid Atlantic next week.

[sunnyday]

Right after my post above, the S Fl met mentioned the possibility that there could be 4 days of rain in the area!

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 40% in 5 days

A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[gatorcane]

It certainly looks to me like that area N or Puerto Rico might become a separate low-level entity eventually. If it happens that is incredible the GFS modeled this as no other model is picking it up.

I just saw NHC is including the area down to Puerto Rico now...

[CycloneCaptain]

New forecast puts a large amount of Florida into the cone of uncertainty.

[jlauderdal]

New forecast puts a large amount of Florida into the cone of uncertainty.

Cone of mass confusion

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[nativefloridian]

New forecast puts a large amount of Florida into the cone of uncertainty.

Cone of mass confusion

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Could that be an indication that the circulation on the south end may end up becoming the predominant one?

[xironman]

I'd put my money on the northern vort. Been head faked by MLCs too many times.

[jlauderdal]

New forecast puts a large amount of Florida into the cone of uncertainty.

Cone of mass confusion

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Could that be an indication that the circulation on the south end may end up becoming the predominant one?

They keep the gulf open..big area in play now, potential huge rain producer then hurricane as it exits the scene NE
.very interesting system from the beginning

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