ATL: HARVEY - Models

[MississippiWx]

18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.

Might be a situation where land interaction helps to tighten the circulation. Models seem to be showing regeneration beginning while over the Yucatan.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.

Is Corpus christi still in play ?

[Rgv20]

18zGFS Ensembles came in very aggressive for potential Harvey.

[stormlover2013]

Gut feeling here I say we keep seeing a north shift just gut feeling

[Alyono]

HWRF with a MASSIVE shift south. Cat 3 buried in the BOC

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.

Is Corpus christi still in play ?

Yeah I think so. Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

HWRF with a MASSIVE shift south. Cat 3 buried in the BOC

Yeah but it's a bad run all other models shifting NORTH the HWRF has this at hurricane strength in 24 hours which is bull

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.

Is Corpus christi still in play ?

Yeah I think so. Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight.

With the GFS ensembles shifting North that's kinda bad because most of the ensembles have a category 1 near corpus or Brownsville

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Your wrong anyways the new HWRF shifted north let the run finish lol

[stormlover2013]

18z navy shift north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=116

[Alyono]

Your wrong anyways the new HWRF shifted north let the run finish lol

I'd be careful saying a met is wrong, when they can post the facts to prove how right they are

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=105 current run

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

previous run

this is a good southwest shift. Yes, it has turned back north, but it has shifted south

[Alyono]

18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.

Is Corpus christi still in play ?

Yeah I think so. Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight.

the ensemble probabilities came in lower today than 24 hours ago for TX. However, I expect that the 18Z when they are available in a few hours will show back to a 10-15% chance of a TX impact

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Well it looks like all models all of a sudden want to shift North !

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=110

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Is Corpus christi still in play ?

Yeah I think so. Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight.

the ensemble probabilities came in lower today than 24 hours ago for TX. However, I expect that the 18Z when they are available in a few hours will show back to a 10-15% chance of a TX impact

Well half of the new GFS ensembles that develop it bring it to Texas! So I'm expecting the next model runs to flip back south because your right when you say the models have been flip flopping and also I don't want a hurricane in my back yard anyways lol !

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Latest HWRF brings a category 4 hurricane into northern Mexico so Texas definitely needs to stay on watch !

[Alyono]

120 mile southward shift on the landfall point for the HWRF

[Rgv20]

18zHWRF goes all out I see....

[Alyono]

HMON run seems to have froze. Been stuck at 93 hrs. In addition, there has been no stats file created. It seemed it had shifted a little to the north

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

120 mile southward shift on the landfall point for the HWRF

Yes but ironically the impacts to Texas are worst with this run anyways and that Due west movement in the BOC then NORTH is probably unlikely unless steering flow literally collapses but your the Pro Im not saying your wrong .... I'm just saying Texas needs to keep a eye on this .... I'm sure you agree