ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the remnants of Harvey.

Updated: An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the system still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so far there is no indication of winds to tropical storm force.

Satellite images indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since earlier today. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near the northern coast of Honduras, during the next day or two. The system is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the middle of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[xironman]

If it does not get its act together quick it is going straight into Honduras

[WeatherGuesser]

Potential for another crossover?

[Alyono]

If it does not get its act together quick it is going straight into Honduras

http://i.imgur.com/0FvwbYA.gif

the wave axis is still well east of the convection.

The chances of burying itself over Honduras have dropped like a brick today

[wxman57]

No crossover yet. It's on track to skirt Honduras, move through Belize, cross the rest of the Yucatan, and emerge into the BoC.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

If it does not get its act together quick it is going straight into Honduras

http://i.imgur.com/0FvwbYA.gif

the wave axis is still well east of the convection.

The chances of burying itself over Honduras have dropped like a brick today

SO quick question and please respond ...... since the wave axis is more east your basically saying it won't slam into Honduras? Also if it's at 77W is it at 15N as well am I right ?

[wxman57]

If it does not get its act together quick it is going straight into Honduras

http://i.imgur.com/0FvwbYA.gif

the wave axis is still well east of the convection.

The chances of burying itself over Honduras have dropped like a brick today

SO quick question and please respond ...... since the wave axis is more east your basically saying it won't slam into Honduras? Also if it's at 77W is it at 15N as well am I right ?

Sure, the wave axis is going to impact both Nicaragua and Honduras, but the bulk of the energy will skirt along the coast of Honduras and move into Belize by Tuesday morning.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

the wave axis is still well east of the convection.

The chances of burying itself over Honduras have dropped like a brick today

SO quick question and please respond ...... since the wave axis is more east your basically saying it won't slam into Honduras? Also if it's at 77W is it at 15N as well am I right ?

Sure, the wave axis is going to impact both Nicaragua and Honduras, but the bulk of the energy will skirt along the coast of Honduras and move into Belize by Tuesday morning.

SO this won't dissipate over Honduras? It sure looks like it ?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The wave axis is currently just a tad west of due south of Kingston and around 15 3 N as per recon

[wxman57]

SO this won't dissipate over Honduras? It sure looks like it ?

Land won't make a wave dissipate, and don't confuse Honduras with Nicaragua.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

OK thanks tomorrow will likely be a better day for this thing

[SoupBone]

No crossover yet. It's on track to skirt Honduras, move through Belize, cross the rest of the Yucatan, and emerge into the BoC.

Can you mark the CoC because it looks like it's racing west and going to crash straight into Honduras.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Alyono]

the models have not performed well at all with regards to the shear forecast so far.

The models had the shear around 5 kts now in yesterday's forecasts. A simple look at the satellite shows that the upper high remains west of the wave axis. Thus, the shearing winds this experienced yesterday persist over the system. In addition, the aircraft showed no change in organization from yesterday. There is a mid level circulation around 81W. This shows how badly organized the system is at the moment.

May not be able to do anything until it gets into the BOC

Of note, what this does in the BOC will affect what 92L does near Florida. A stronger system will decrease the chance of development in the eastern Gulf

[gatorcane]

Right now looks like Harvey remnants are headed for Honduras which might mean a weaker (or no) BoC solution ultimately

[wxman57]

No crossover yet. It's on track to skirt Honduras, move through Belize, cross the rest of the Yucatan, and emerge into the BoC.

Can you mark the CoC because it looks like it's racing west and going to crash straight into Honduras.

It will brush Honduras, passing over the eastern part of Honduras, then move inland into Belize.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 14.9°N 78.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[tarheelprogrammer]

00z Best Track:

Location: 14.9°N 78.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

http://i.imgur.com/d2AD09i.png

That looks quite a bit east of the the center. Why so far east?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

00z Best Track:

Location: 14.9°N 78.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

http://i.imgur.com/d2AD09i.png

That looks quite a bit east of the the center. Why so far east?

That position is about right where the actual lower level spin would be the western spin is all mid levels and will die over land the eastern one is the one with the most vorticy !

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

No crossover yet. It's on track to skirt Honduras, move through Belize, cross the rest of the Yucatan, and emerge into the BoC.

Can you mark the CoC because it looks like it's racing west and going to crash straight into Honduras.

It will brush Honduras, passing over the eastern part of Honduras, then move inland into Belize.

http://wxman57.com/images/Harvey.JPG

That isn't the COC there isn't one and the main spin is further east dude