ATL: TEN - Models

[Blown Away]

Models do not appear to be initializing the new low just N of PR... Scenerio to complex for me... I just see a very vigorous low churning away with limited convection...

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO that low just north of PR is just a decaying MLC. Lower level vort concentrated well NW.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the 18z GFS disintegrates the northern vorticity as it approaches Florida and develops the southern vorticity which curves off the SE Florida coast and develops a system north of the Bahamas and send it out to sea

[NDG]

Models do not appear to be initializing the new low just N of PR... Scenerio to complex for me... I just see a very vigorous low churning away with limited convection...

Like I said just a little while ago the circulation seen in visible satellite north of P.R. is in the mid levels. Interesting the GFS clearly shows it in its 18z runs h70 forecast and from it is that it develops a system in the northern Bahamas, not from the h85 vorticity.

[hd44]

Not trying to hype but so many parallels to how Katrina formed east of Florida

[jlauderdal]

Not trying to hype but so many parallels to how Katrina formed east of Florida

very very different setup

[hd44]

Not trying to hype but so many parallels to how Katrina formed east of Florida

very very different setup

Steering wise yes .This was likely a td that holds onto a strong circulation now north of Pr. Also the dates so similar.

[Blown Away]

Models do not appear to be initializing the new low just N of PR... Scenerio to complex for me... I just see a very vigorous low churning away with limited convection...

Like I said just a little while ago the circulation seen in visible satellite north of P.R. is in the mid levels. Interesting the GFS clearly shows it in its 18z runs h70 forecast and from it is that it develops a system in the northern Bahamas, not from the h85 vorticity.

Just in past 24 hours the PR MLC been showing stronger on the GFS h70 and the h85 has improved as well... Per the models, if anything will become of 92L over next 4-5 days it will be from the area N of PR. If the NHC is buying this scenario, they will have to adjust their updates soon. MLC seems to show up near SFL in @4-5 days, plenty of time to pull something together is all other factors working in 92L's favor...

[SFLcane]

[floridasun78]

i was told this models rgem not good tropical models

[Blown Away]

18z RGEM...

[Blown Away]

Likely epic rainfall for E Central Florida if this plays out...

[Emmett_Brown]

RGEM might not be considered a tropical model, but perhaps it is a good clue to the track, assuming something actually does form. I'm not an expert on this model, so just thinking out loud.

[jlauderdal]

Likely epic rainfall for E Central Florida if this plays out...

Comes, in hangs around then leaves not fast enough like a relative..interesting nhc mentions eastern gulf

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[hd44]

Correct rgem is a worse tropical model than the Nam.

[floridasun78]

Correct rgem is a worse tropical model than the Nam.

but could little model that could beat big brother models gfs, euro, cmc

[Hammy]

NAM is starting to close off a very weak low over Florida in a few days.

Correct rgem is a worse tropical model than the Nam.

but could little model that could beat big brother models gfs, euro, cmc

I think the RGEM is simply the higher resolution mesoscale version of the CMC.

[caneman]

Likely epic rainfall for E Central Florida if this plays out...

Comes, in hangs around then leaves not fast enough like a relative..interesting nhc mentions eastern gulf

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What did they say about Eastern Gulf?

[chaser1]

One thing worth keeping in mind, just as some of you have noted about the NAM and the updated RGEM (which I believe was the replacement for the RUC model??), is that lately we are seeing an evolution of smaller meso-scale like tropical systems spin up. Not all of them, but some anyway and 92L would seem to fit. Its quite possible that these models with their more finite resolution might have a better time handling some of these systems, especially as they get close in to the U.S. where there is a better concentration of data being worked into their respective model runs.

[chaser1]

Likely epic rainfall for E Central Florida if this plays out...

Comes, in hangs around then leaves not fast enough like a relative..interesting nhc mentions eastern gulf

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From what I can see, I'd guess that was a pretty good initialization. As of 11:30 pm Eastern, I'd place the COC at about 24N and 72W. for the moment though, it's moving faster than a looter running from the National Guard! Doesn't look like its going to pull any kind of outright stall east of Florida based on most models so it'll have to really organize while soaking up some of that Gulfstream go-go juice for it to amount to much. To be honest though, from one who was driving on the Palmetto as Katrina began to organize and move over S. Florida.... this does have that "feel". Thank heaven the outcome wont. Still, could make for one messy squally couple of days.