ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[painkillerr]

A group of friends are beginning a motorcycle ride from Orlando to Key West on Thursday. Should they scrap it?

[Hammy]

If anything that piece of energy will keep this from consolidating similarly to the two vortices of Hermine last year as it passed Puerto Rico. Except 92L will be over Florida by the time it attempts consolidation instead of being over warm water.

When is it expected to reach the Florida coast?

Going by NAM since it's easier to pick up on that model, it looks like whatever's left of this will arrive sometime on Tuesday, probably afternoon.

[painkillerr]

If anything that piece of energy will keep this from consolidating similarly to the two vortices of Hermine last year as it passed Puerto Rico. Except 92L will be over Florida by the time it attempts consolidation instead of being over warm water.

When is it expected to reach the Florida coast?

Going by NAM since it's easier to pick up on that model, it looks like whatever's left of this will arrive sometime on Tuesday, probably afternoon.

Thanks!

[Happy Pelican]

A group of friends are beginning a motorcycle ride from Orlando to Key West on Thursday. Should they scrap it?

They definitely need to keep an eye on the forecast. Until the NHC has enough supporting data on 92L's track and intensity, it's really a game of watch and wait while this system either fizzles or shocks us all.

[chaser1]

A group of friends are beginning a motorcycle ride from Orlando to Key West on Thursday. Should they scrap it?

It's not looking so good but I wouldn't cancel any plans yet. 92L could in fact develop and move ashore around the Palm Beaches in 48 hours and possibly be a real soaker. On the other hand, if and when this were to organize some, the net effect is often a consolidation of the rain and weather rather than remaining an elongated trough of low pressure spreading a lot of rain over a larger area. The other factor is that this whole mess could possibly be Atlantic bound by Thursday and leave improving conditions over S. Florida by that time. I'd give it a day or two before calling that one.

[chaser1]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

Thank you for saying but I've been thinking. I know it's the Canadian model but a few days ago, it had something to the East of 92l that looked to be closing off 92L's escape hatch out to sea and had it going directly into the east coast (not quite Sandyesque) but forced 92L into the D.C. area. Now, that phantom storm isn't showing up and 92L has started coming East because it has an escape OTS.

Could that mystery storm the CMC picked up a few runs back actually be what you (for arguement sake) called 92-B? What the heck do I know but it's making sense in my head, I hope I'm somewhat conveying my thoughts without looking like a babbling fool.

If 92L somehow managed to become 2 separate systems with one going up the coast and the other heading straight north, up the Atlantic, perhaps that's what the CMC was picking up on a few days ago and if so, the potential for a coastal hugger (albeit a weak one) could be possible?

Clear as mud? I just confused myself.

I don't see two separate systems within the proximity that these areas of vorticity exist. More than likely, one become dominant with perhaps a trough lagging to the south or southeast.

[painkillerr]

A group of friends are beginning a motorcycle ride from Orlando to Key West on Thursday. Should they scrap it?

They definitely need to keep an eye on the forecast. Until the NHC has enough supporting data on 92L's track and intensity, it's really a game of watch and wait while this system either fizzles or shocks us all.

Thanks so much!

[Happy Pelican]

The laughable track from the GFS doesn't look so laughable anymore, showing the Southern Florida peninsula being intersected on two consecutive days, 92L coming in directly from the east, followed by "92L - B" coming straight up from south to north a day later.

Thank you for saying but I've been thinking. I know it's the Canadian model but a few days ago, it had something to the East of 92l that looked to be closing off 92L's escape hatch out to sea and had it going directly into the east coast (not quite Sandyesque) but forced 92L into the D.C. area. Now, that phantom storm isn't showing up and 92L has started coming East because it has an escape OTS.

Could that mystery storm the CMC picked up a few runs back actually be what you (for arguement sake) called 92-B? What the heck do I know but it's making sense in my head, I hope I'm somewhat conveying my thoughts without looking like a babbling fool.

If 92L somehow managed to become 2 separate systems with one going up the coast and the other heading straight north, up the Atlantic, perhaps that's what the CMC was picking up on a few days ago and if so, the potential for a coastal hugger (albeit a weak one) could be possible?

Clear as mud? I just confused myself.

I don't see two separate systems within the proximity that these areas of vorticity exist. More than likely, one become dominant with perhaps a trough lagging to the south or southeast.

I kept going back and trying to see what the CMC was picking up and realized the same thing however, I know you can't put any stock in my weird gut feeling but I think the CMC is seeing something that could keep 92L from an easy shot OTS. Again, thanks for humoring me and allowing me to present a scenario (no matter how silly) without worrying about being made to feel foolish. It's one of the reason I respect this forum and its members.

[painkillerr]

A group of friends are beginning a motorcycle ride from Orlando to Key West on Thursday. Should they scrap it?

It's not looking so good but I wouldn't cancel any plans yet. 92L could in fact develop and move ashore around the Palm Beaches in 48 hours and possibly be a real soaker. On the other hand, if and when this were to organize some, the net effect is often a consolidation of the rain and weather rather than remaining an elongated trough of low pressure spreading a lot of rain over a larger area. The other factor is that this whole mess could possibly be Atlantic bound by Thursday and leave improving conditions over S. Florida by that time. I'd give it a day or two before calling that one.

Thanks for the advice. We'll wait until tomorrow night to see how it looks before deciding if we pull the plug or not. Is we don't cancel the hotel rooms timely, they'll charge us.

[chaser1]

I'd be very curious to know if stations, ship reports, and bouys in the E. Bahamas began reporting pressure falls.

[jlauderdal]

If anything that piece of energy will keep this from consolidating similarly to the two vortices of Hermine last year as it passed Puerto Rico. Except 92L will be over Florida by the time it attempts consolidation instead of being over warm water.

When is it expected to reach the Florida coast?

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE (92L) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MARCH TODAY, REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS THIS
EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWER-MOVING, AND IT WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US, AND LIKELY STALL
OVER OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA.

[drezee]

It is entangled in an upper low...much like Erin in 1995 in about the same place...but weaker than Erin

[Nimbus]

There are three upper level lows the one closest to 92L is filling in.
The other two ULLs are rolling west in tandem which will (likely) leave an anticyclone building between them over 92L.
The portion of 92L tracking WNW along the coast of Cuba could be a concern for the Eastern Gulf in future model runs IMO.

[stormreader]

There are three upper level lows the one closest to 92L is filling in.
The other two ULLs are rolling west in tandem which will (likely) leave an anticyclone building between them over 92L.
The portion of 92L tracking WNW along the coast of Cuba could be a concern for the Eastern Gulf in future model runs IMO.

This morning the southern section looks more significant (imo). But it has varied.

[SFLcane]

Development looks unlikely this morning batch of rain and storms for SFL.

[jlauderdal]

Development looks unlikely this morning batch of rain and storms for SFL.

maybe it wont develop into a classified system but dont underestimate the potential for someone on the peninsula to get very wet from this setup

[SFLcane]

Convection is quickly falling apart tropical waves are tricky to forecast so well see.

[toad strangler]

Convection is quickly falling apart tropical waves are tricky to forecast so well see.

This wild card here is a potential stall. That said, the wave looks completely ragged.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Still hoping that this will be named Irma...

[OuterBanker]

Since there isn't much to talk about this am about 92l this am I thought I would go a little off subject. Talked to my nephew in Bend Oregon and he stated that it's total gridlock. Restaurants had to shut down because they ran out of food. Supply trucks couldn't get to them. No one can go to work, etc. Perfect weather though.