ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

I agree with wxman...that is where development will come from. Convergence and lift starts there...if any

[Alyono]

surface vorticity is farther east. No vorticity at the surface with the MLC. Where we need to look is where we have low level convergence. That, not mid level driven convection, is what will spin up the surface vortex (the amount of convergence is proportional to the rate of of change of the vorticity, comes from vorticity equation)

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I agree with you because it's clear the surface low is further east along the wave axis !

[stormreader]

A very minor point. Saw that models are in basic agreement that if there is a spin up (if), it will actually cross the coast a little north of Belize.

[Alyono]

yes, this is going into Belize and the southern Yucatan

No chance of this burying itself over Nicaragua and Honduras

[stormreader]

No crossover yet. It's on track to skirt Honduras, move through Belize, cross the rest of the Yucatan, and emerge into the BoC.

Can you mark the CoC because it looks like it's racing west and going to crash straight into Honduras.

It will brush Honduras, passing over the eastern part of Honduras, then move inland into Belize.

http://wxman57.com/images/Harvey.JPG

Storms are in fact coalescing near what might be an emerging center very near to that circle you drew a couple of hours ago.

[stormreader]

"Center" of Harvey remnants now in Honduran coastal waters. But deep convection spreads out for hundreds of miles to the NE. Harvey will make the crossing into the southern GOM. Makes one wonder if in the GOM it might reorganize a little farther north than anticipated.

[HURAKAN]

RECON cancelled for today

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2017082112, , BEST, 0, 163N, 823W, 25, 1008, WV

[SoupBone]

RECON cancelled for today

I wonder why that is. Strange since there's potential for this to become a hurricane.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

RECON cancelled for today

I wonder why that is. Strange since there's potential for this to become a hurricane.

They aren't gonna go because it won't develop until the Gulf and or the BOC

[Alyono]

RECON cancelled for today

I wonder why that is. Strange since there's potential for this to become a hurricane.

because it would be a waste of money. Very little chance this develops before hitting Belize. There is no organization at all

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Main focus for the next several days will be the strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea (Ex Harvey) and an approaching cool front.

Upper level pattern is slowly transitioning from summer toward early fall over the region with weakening of the summer sub-tropical ridging which will allow a cool front to approach the area by the end of this week. At the same time this will also allow the tropical wave currently in the western Caribbean Sea to track into the southern Gulf of Mexico and turn toward the NW. Overall late week forecast will hinge on both of these features, but enough confidence is in place that a wet pattern will begin to evolve over the area by Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Tropical Wave (Ex Harvey):
Wave axis continues to move WNW into the western Caribbean Sea, but there has been little to no attempt at the system to try and reorganize. While the wave envelope has expanded to the N over the last 24 hours any weak low level circulation is along the SE flank of the wave and displaced east of the deeper convection. Within the next 24-30 hours the system will be moving inland over the southern Yucatan so the window for any near term development is shrinking. Once in the Gulf of Mexico there is nearly unanimous agreement across the global models that the system will begin to organize and form into a tropical cyclone once again. Track guidance has shifted northward over the last 24 hours due in part to a continued weakness in the ridge that is currently developing over TX and will linger into next weekend. Based on the forecasted steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico and US Gulf coast by the middle of the week a tropical system in the southern Gulf would likely move NW toward the NE MX/ S TX coast. A stronger system (strong tropical storm or hurricane) would likely turn more NNW and track further northward. Given the current lack of organization and a defined center and the fact that the system will be crossing the Yucatan it is difficult to determine where a new center may form in the Gulf of Mexico and that would have implications on the track.

Late Week Frontal Boundary:
While the tropical system attempts to organize in the southern Gulf, a frontal boundary will drop southward into N TX by Wednesday and into SE TX Thursday and Friday and stall across the area. Moisture will be increasing ahead of this feature as noted by 1.8-2.0 inch PWS over the central Gulf of Mexico currently. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday into next weekend. As the boundary stalls, moisture from the tropical system will begin to spread northward and into the frontal zone which will only help to enhance rainfall. Will likely see moisture reach our far outer waters early Thursday and then spread toward the coast Friday depending on how organized the system may become.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week into next weekend is low given the factors at play and the potential of a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system. Will let the flat to 2 foot seas ride for the offshore waters into Wednesday, but will likely need to start increasing both wind and seas for the late week and weekend periods if current trends hold with a tropical system approaching NE MX/S TX late Friday. Models not currently showing an overly large system, but large enough to potentially bring squalls into our coastal waters. Obviously any adjustment northward of the forecast track this week would bring more impacts into the middle and upper coast of TX.

[wxman57]

That isn't the COC there isn't one and the main spin is further east dude

There was no circulation center, I was just highlighting that the convection wasn't going to move inland.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

That isn't the COC there isn't one and the main spin is further east dude

There was no circulation center, I was just highlighting that the convection wasn't going to move inland.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

That isn't the COC there isn't one and the main spin is further east dude

There was no circulation center, I was just highlighting that the convection wasn't going to move inland.

OK thanks

[NotSparta]

Can you mark the CoC because it looks like it's racing west and going to crash straight into Honduras.

It will brush Honduras, passing over the eastern part of Honduras, then move inland into Belize.

http://wxman57.com/images/Harvey.JPG

Storms are in fact coalescing near what might be an emerging center very near to that circle you drew a couple of hours ago.

It must be feeling the warmer waters south of Cuba.

If the storms sustain themselves, it could have an easier time organizing.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

It will brush Honduras, passing over the eastern part of Honduras, then move inland into Belize.

http://wxman57.com/images/Harvey.JPG

Storms are in fact coalescing near what might be an emerging center very near to that circle you drew a couple of hours ago.

It must be feeling the warmer waters south of Cuba.

If the storms sustain themselves, it could have an easier time organizing.

It's slowly organizing

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
Harvey will make comeback. Track likely between Cindy and Franklin which means Texas should watch closely I have alot of concern, esp
S Tex

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/899630115864408065

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

@BigJoeBastardi
Harvey will make comeback. Track likely between Cindy and Franklin which means Texas should watch closely I have alot of concern, esp
S Tex

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/899630115864408065

Now that he is saying to watch out we need to open our eyes a little