ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

The surface vorticity near the eastern Bahamas is getting elongated & weakening just like the models have been forecasting, the one to watch is the h70 vorticity that was north of P.R. yesterday, now in the northern coastal waters of Hispaniola, this is the energy that the GFS develops.

[jlauderdal]

hanging tough at 40%, could be good for ACE next weekend in the open atlantic

A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central
Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas. Conditions
could become a little more conducive for development later in the
week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep, that area does look like it has potential. I wonder if recon will investigate this are instead.

[Hurricaneman]

Is recon still a go for this afternoon

[NDG]

Is recon still a go for this afternoon

I doubt it will go out there, there's no closed circulation.

[Hurricaneman]

All one has to look at is Julia from last year for what I think this will be like for Florida just with more rain

[Frank P]

Looks like quite the battle between the two competing circulations... att both have some building convection firing off.. looks like a hot tower developing on the northern end... I say they look pretty evenly matched at the moment... going to be interesting to see who wins out!

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Looks like quite the battle between the two competing circulations... att both have some building convection firing off.. looks like a hot tower developing on the northern end... I say they look pretty evenly matched at the moment... going to be interesting to see who wins out!

I'm more and more on southern vorticity since northern vorticity is struggling with absorbing ULL fully, then southern vorticity would do an Fujiwhara interaction with the northern one then absorb it completely, resulting in a probably TS. After that i believe the southern vorticity would take on northern vorticity's path instead of forecasted southern vorticity's path, never passing the GOM.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like there might be an LLC at 24N, 74W based on visible sat. Don't know if it is at the surface however.

[alienstorm]

Put a fork in it, this will not develop and it's on it way to going poof.

[NotSparta]

Put a fork in it, this will not develop and it's on it way to going poof.

Isn't that the last thing you want to say about these waves? Especially since this one has the potential to end up in the Gulf for a time

[CourierPR]

Put a fork in it, this will not develop and it's on it way to going poof.

Now I can rest easy having received the definitive forecast.

[SFLcane]

Convection flaring up again near were the NHC has low pressure.

[Frank P]

Looks to me the northern vort has the most energy and is the dominant one.... southern vort looks to be washing out somewhat..

[SFLcane]

Shear no issues through florida...

[Steve]

Put a fork in it, this will not develop and it's on it way to going poof.

Hey Alien,

How about putting that money where that mouth is and put your alias on the line for the rest of the season. If something comes out of this on the East Coast by the weekend, you retire until November 30th.

[Emmett_Brown]

92L is busy mixing out the dry air from the ULL. A bit of outflow starting on the north side. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif

Someone earlier made a comparison to 1995 Erin. I agree there are similarities (Erin was stronger in this region of course). When Erin was declared a depression, it had 2 distinct centers that took a while to consolidate. It also interacted with and upper level low. Just mentioning it since it is an interesting analog of sorts.

[NDG]

Looks like there might be an LLC at 24N, 74W based on visible sat. Don't know if it is at the surface however.

There's still no LLC, some vorticity but no closed circulation.

[alienstorm]

Still lots of Dry air and some easterly shear. Will need to work that out, I still dont see this developing, but will get some rains in South Florida.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[NotSparta]

Looks like Invest 92L has formed a ULAC, but it is displaced a bit to the east