ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

If future Harvey can reach hurricane strength in the southern Gulf, and a trough is in place like some models are forecasting, that's when the central Gulf coast comes into play. Waters are warm...

[Alyono]

If future Harvey can reach hurricane strength in the southern Gulf, and a trough is in place like some models are forecasting, that's when the central Gulf coast comes into play. Waters are warm...

no, it doesn't. The chance of this passing within 125 miles of the central Gulf coast is between 2 and 5 percent at the present time

furthermore, 6Z HWRF has a cat 3, and it shifted south into Tampico. Stronger storm does not necessarily mean a more northward storm

[stormlover2013]

heck it could just weaken and it just be a rain maker we shall see.

[Stormcenter]

The speculation on the board is humorous as to where Harvey's remnants will go when you don't even have an organized system yet again, that being said "You never say never when it comes to the tropics". IMO

[Portastorm]

The speculation on the board is humorous as to where Harvey's remnants will go when you don't even have an organized system yet again, that being said "You never say never when it comes to the tropics". IMO

Bingo! I have a sore neck from watching all the back and forth this weekend on where "Harvey" will make final landfall.

[Tireman4]

From my amazing mind and astute watching the tropics. ...We have no idea...it could go anywhere....

[Frank P]

The speculation on the board is humorous as to where Harvey's remnants will go when you don't even have an organized system yet again, that being said "You never say never when it comes to the tropics". IMO

Bingo! I have a sore neck from watching all the back and forth this weekend on where "Harvey" will make final landfall.

So true, but that's what makes reading these post so much entertaining...

[Steve]

The speculation on the board is humorous as to where Harvey's remnants will go when you don't even have an organized system yet again, that being said "You never say never when it comes to the tropics". IMO

Bingo! I have a sore neck from watching all the back and forth this weekend on where "Harvey" will make final landfall.

Maybe get some kind of ergonomic headrest for your easy chair? Looks like some consolidation and additional convection is popping up around the system as it makes its way to the Yucatan. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

Also the ULL across the middle of the Gulf appears to now be in a position to ventilate Harvey's remnants rather than shear them.

[bohaiboy]

Even if Harvey moves up the coast as a wave or minimal tropical storm, remember Allison dumped 36" of rain in one area of Houston as a minimal TS. These storms, even though lower winds, can wreak havoc over areas with their copious amounts of rain.

[Portastorm]

The speculation on the board is humorous as to where Harvey's remnants will go when you don't even have an organized system yet again, that being said "You never say never when it comes to the tropics". IMO

Bingo! I have a sore neck from watching all the back and forth this weekend on where "Harvey" will make final landfall.

Maybe get some kind of ergonomic headrest for your easy chair? Looks like some consolidation and additional convection is popping up around the system as it makes its way to the Yucatan. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

Also the ULL across the middle of the Gulf appears to now be in a position to ventilate Harvey's remnants rather than shear them.

You're a good man, Steve ... looking out for your friendly neighborhood mods.

Meanwhile good point on the ULL ... per NWS AFDs from Texas offices the ULL is supposed to slowly edge west and weaken over the next 48-72 hrs.

[Kazmit]

Starting to organize itself this morning, but so doubt it will become Harvey again until after the Yucatán.

[Tireman4]

Bingo! I have a sore neck from watching all the back and forth this weekend on where "Harvey" will make final landfall.

Maybe get some kind of ergonomic headrest for your easy chair? Looks like some consolidation and additional convection is popping up around the system as it makes its way to the Yucatan. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

Also the ULL across the middle of the Gulf appears to now be in a position to ventilate Harvey's remnants rather than shear them.

You're a good man, Steve ... looking out for your friendly neighborhood mods.

Meanwhile good point on the ULL ... per NWS AFDs from Texas offices the ULL is supposed to slowly edge west and weaken over the next 48-72 hrs.

You will need this to get in shape for this Winter, Porta. According to the Bi Polar Wxman 57, we will be in for it this cold season.

[Alyono]

No change in organization the past 2 days. Convection is firing along an outflow boundary, which has caused it to become linear again. I expect the convection to once again drop off this afternoon

[Steve]

No change in organization the past 2 days. Convection is firing along an outflow boundary, which has caused it to become linear again. I expect the convection to once again drop off this afternoon

Yeah. I was noticing that too. There's a curve on the overall satellite presentation, but when you look at some of the different temperatures/heights for the cloud tops, you see that linear concentration.

[stormreader]

[imghttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/avn-animated.gif][/img]

Just watching now.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 70%-90%

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with the remnants of Harvey, but the system still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. Some development of this
disturbance is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize
or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for redevelopment into a
tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[NDG]

ASCAT missed Harvey's remnants this afternoon. Too bad.

[GCANE]

Reminds me a lot of what Franklin did in this neck of the Carib.
A large MCS fired off and persisted.
Followed by the generation of a MCV / Mid-Level Vort.
Pretty much allowed Franklin to breeze across the Yucatan with minimal distruption to the mid-level vort.
Once it hit the BoC, Vortical (High-Helicity) Hot Towers fired off and drove the circulation to the surface.
In this case though, Harvey is going to have more running room in the west GOM.
Looking at the forecast, mid-level moisture should be good to support a strong warm core once in the BoC.
The current ULL is filling day by day with more moisture as seen on WV Imagery.

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit concerned about the inland flooding issues with a Tropical System combining with a weakness/shear axis from Tamaulpas in NE Mexico to just West of San Antonio close to Cotulla. Add a stalling boundary to the mix and the potential is there for someone across the Hill Country to pick up some extremely copious rainfall totals. The GFS output suggested the possibility of 20+ inches not too far from Uvalde and the Edwards Plateau. Both the 12Z ECMWF and GFS suggest very slow forward momentum after landfall along the S Texas Coast.

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Pretty cool to see this come under the influence of the Solar Eclipse.