ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Frank P]

historic flooding on this EC run

Its now back over the ocean as well wow.

and at hour 216 ECMWF just north of NOLA moving to the NE... go figure... wow...

[SoupBone]

ridge builds back to its west!!!

Yeah that run isn't concerning at all...

Looks like a reverse Allison, riding the Texas coast.

[Portastorm]

historic flooding on this EC run

Yep. I commented on this in the Texas Summer thread. Much of Harris County would see 12-20". NE Waller County has a 23.8" mark. Anywhere from Austin down to Carrizo Springs across to Corpus Christi and up NE to Houston would get inundated.

[N2FSU]

[Frank P]

Well if that isn't a big ole northerly trend, or heck northeast trend I don't what is... this is just plain crazy... expect some swinging back and forth still... but that is truly outrageous to say the least

[Kingarabian]

This Euro run is almost a carbon copy of the 00z EPS control run from a couple of days ago.

[Wx_Warrior]

Real nice run.

[Frank P]

If the Euro run comes to fruition almost the entire coast of TX, LA and even portions of MS could be impacted with the effects of this system... whatever the heck it might be... laughing my ass off right now at these models.. but hey its the almighty Euro at that!

[SoupBone]

If the Euro run comes to fruition almost the entire coast of TX, LA and even portions of MS could be impacted with the effects of this system... whatever the heck it might be... laughing my ass off right now at these models.. but hey its the almighty Euro at that!

And this is why I'm paying close attention. Unreal.

[NDG]

Yeap, second run in a row that the Euro has Harvey going back into the GOM after making landfall in TX.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO was North Mexico.

[Ivanhater]

0z EURO was North Mexico.

Moved off the south Texas coast at 240 hours

[Steve]

If the Euro run comes to fruition almost the entire coast of TX, LA and even portions of MS could be impacted with the effects of this system... whatever the heck it might be... laughing my ass off right now at these models.. but hey its the almighty Euro at that!

Looks like second landfall/entry point is around where Cindy landfalled or maybe a hair east of there but coming from the other direction. It shows as 997mb still over the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain. That's at least a healthy tropical storm. 9 days is a long time, and that's certainly an interesting run from the European.

[Frank P]

If the Euro run comes to fruition almost the entire coast of TX, LA and even portions of MS could be impacted with the effects of this system... whatever the heck it might be... laughing my ass off right now at these models.. but hey its the almighty Euro at that!

Looks like second landfall/entry point is around where Cindy landfalled or maybe a hair east of there but coming from the other direction. It shows as 997mb still over the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain. That's at least a healthy tropical storm. 9 days is a long time, and that's certainly an interesting run from the European.

True Steve, but its the Euro, not the NAM... now lets see if any other models picks up the hint, or is just this a silly outlier and bad run... gotta love all the models... but my fav are the ones in sports illustrated

[Kingarabian]

Fortunately the Euro doesn't bring it over water for a long period of time. Else it'll blow up.

[Frank P]

Fortunately the Euro doesn't bring it over water for a long period of time. Else it'll blow up.

Not yet at least, game on maybe???

[SoupBone]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

[TheStormExpert]

If the last two Euro runs come close to reality then Harvey very well may be the storm of the season, or at least so far. It's been AGES since we've seen a significant hurricane in the Gulf, you have to go almost nine years ago back to Ike. Of course there was Alex in 2010 but that was more so in the BoC.

[Cpv17]

That run of the Euro floods the heck out of me lol ridiculous.

[Frank P]

That run of the Euro floods the heck out of me lol ridiculous.

I think if the Euro comes to fruition this would be some kind of big time flooding, would all depend on how fast the system is moving, but a slow mover would be bad news to a lot of folks... which in the end could be "the storm formally known as" Harvey's legacy...