ATL: HARVEY - Models

[SoupBone]

That run of the Euro floods the heck out of me lol ridiculous.

I think if the Euro comes to fruition this would be some kind of big time flooding, would all depend on how fast the system is moving, but a slow mover would be bad news to a lot of folks... which in the end could be "the storm formally known as" Harvey's legacy...

Like I posted earlier, a reverse Allison for Texas.

[Steve]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

QPF which I think is mostly based on the GFS suite with human input.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[gatorcane]

Euro hasn't done particularly well especially beyond 6-7 days so this idea of it turning ENE and getting back into the Gulf needs more models runs before it is believable. Most models runs are into Mexico with some into extreme south Texas:

[Portastorm]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

Go on Twitter and look up Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) as he just posted as 12z Euro model map.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble mean has it going inland just south of the border on Friday.

[TheStormExpert]

The closest most recent analog storm I can think of for Harvey in terms of potential track and time of year is Tropical Storm Hermine (2010). Strength-wise this could likely be stronger.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Hermine_(2010)

[HurricaneBrain]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/899703114646921217

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro Ensemble mean has it going inland just south of the border on Friday.

Wouldn't that be a shift north from the 00z EPS Ensembles which had it going into Mexico further south?

[Alyono]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

maybe between 30-50 inches in isolated areas

[Steve]

If the Euro run comes to fruition almost the entire coast of TX, LA and even portions of MS could be impacted with the effects of this system... whatever the heck it might be... laughing my ass off right now at these models.. but hey its the almighty Euro at that!

Looks like second landfall/entry point is around where Cindy landfalled or maybe a hair east of there but coming from the other direction. It shows as 997mb still over the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain. That's at least a healthy tropical storm. 9 days is a long time, and that's certainly an interesting run from the European.

True Steve, but its the Euro, not the NAM... now lets see if any other models picks up the hint, or is just this a silly outlier and bad run... gotta love all the models... but my fav are the ones in sports illustrated

Haha. Yeah. Canadian last night pushed back into the Gulf but that was while it was crossing Louisiana. No other support so far from anything but the EC.

CMC goes off into Texas.

GFS keeps in in the Rio Grande Valley and kind of just rains it out over that way.

NAVGEM moves it out across central LA and has a 1005mb vort around Vicksburg at 168 hours. It's weird because it's actually deepening as it comes across - not really likely I don't think.

JMA is interesting. It landfalls along Padre Island at about 4.5 days but kicks back into the Gulf on a West to East trajectory. By 192 hours (8 days) it's making a B-Line for SE LA at a 1009mb Low.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Ensemble mean has it going inland just south of the border on Friday.

Yup. EPS control is not too far off the operation run so far.

[stormreader]

just depends where it comes off the Yucatan, Ridge is breaking, so the north component is there. remember 4-5 days away still

Big key there. It could reorganize and develop a center further north than anticipated, giving it that extra impetus to go that much further north. Sweating it out the last couple of days (still sweating---cause it could take that more westerly course), but I think the US landfall is becoming more likely. And watch for the unexpected. Utlimate direction and intensity, not a done deal by any means.

Something I posted earlier this morning. Don't know yet how this is going to pan out. But I really meant it when I said "expect the unexpected". Models spread as they are. That Euro run from about three days ago. The one that had the storm moving north up the Texas coast. Euro flip-flopped back. But I always wondered with the talk of eroding ridges etc... if the Euro hadn't sniffed out something there. Really don't know if anything outrageous will happen with track, but all of my senses were telling me to "expect the unexpected". Not only track, but intensity as well. We've seen everything from low-level Depression-Storms to important hurricanes out of these runs. Expect the unexpected.

[stormlover2013]

I think we will prob see little bit more north run just little bit, maybe north of corpus we shall see.

[WAcyclone]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

Up to 20 inches in several areas. 16+ inches for much of SE Texas. Looks like the scale needs to be expanded in this graphic:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20170831-0000z.html

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS just swamps southern Texas. Has Harvey looping and meandering over southern Texas for a good period of time.

[perk]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

Up to 20 inches in several areas. 16+ inches for much of SE Texas. Looks like the scale needs to be expanded in this graphic:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20170831-0000z.html

I live in that 16 inch swatch area and that would be devastating.

[PTrackerLA]

What's a bit worrisome besides the flooding with the latest 12z Euro is if the left hook into Texas were to not occur and it just skirts the coast before turning NE you could end up with a significant storm in the northern Gulf.

[Cpv17]

Can anyone link the rainfall estimates?

Up to 20 inches in several areas. 16+ inches for much of SE Texas. Looks like the scale needs to be expanded in this graphic:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20170831-0000z.html

I live in that 16 inch swatch area and that would be devastating.

I'm right in the middle of it lol

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS brings it back over the gulf waters @ day 8. Meanders and drifts NE and the ensembles begin to lose it thereafter.

More track changes to come, but the ensembles are keying in on Texas.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z EPS brings it back over the gulf waters @ day 8. Meanders and drifts NE and the ensembles begin to lose it thereafter.

More track changes to come, but the ensembles are keying in on Texas.

Do any of them show hurricanes or are they just sheared tropical sterms?