Texas Summer 2017

[weatherdude1108]

My goodness ... the 12z Euro is showing Biblical rainfall totals for much of south central, south, and southeast Texas over the next eight days.

Largest one I saw was a 24" total for NE Waller County. Anywhere from 12-20" would fall in Harris County. My own county, Travis County, would get 4-7".

Feast or famine

[weatherdude1108]

Got to see the eclipse, with about 50 of my cohorts. We all noticed a distinct temperature drop. Sun felt much less intense, and more bearable. Amazing natural phenomenon!

[Cpv17]

Got to see the eclipse, with about 50 of my cohorts. We all noticed a distinct temperature drop. Sun felt much less intense, and more bearable. Amazing natural phenomenon!

In my honest opinion it looked like someone just installed a dimmer switch on the sun lol

[weatherdude1108]

Got to see the eclipse, with about 50 of my cohorts. We all noticed a distinct temperature drop. Sun felt much less intense, and more bearable. Amazing natural phenomenon!

In my honest opinion it looked like someone just installed a dimmer switch on the sun lol

Yeah, I noticed it darker when I was in middle school back in the 80s in San Antonio. The temperature drop was about the extent of the spectacle down here.

[weatherdude1108]

This scenario would be a good test for the LCRA system of dams during a flood. Wowza!

[JDawg512]

Got to see the eclipse, with about 50 of my cohorts. We all noticed a distinct temperature drop. Sun felt much less intense, and more bearable. Amazing natural phenomenon!

I managed to snap this pic as it was near the peak with my phone. Check out the visible satellite loop. Can see the shadow move across. If someone could post an animated GIF, I'd appreciate it very much. In 7 years it will be our turn to be in the path of totality.

[Texas Snowman]

Yes sir, pretty cool experience here. Denison will be near the western edge of totality in 2024. Let the countdown begin for that heavenly experience!

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro max for Texas is 35", so both the Euro and GFS showing insane flood potential across Texas with Harvey.

[weatherdude1108]

Got to see the eclipse, with about 50 of my cohorts. We all noticed a distinct temperature drop. Sun felt much less intense, and more bearable. Amazing natural phenomenon!

I managed to snap this pic as it was near the peak with my phone. Check out the visible satellite loop. Can see the shadow move across. If someone could post an animated GIF, I'd appreciate it very much. In 7 years it will be our turn to be in the path of totality.

That looks like my pic! I don't know how to get photos from my phone onto here though. Yeah, 7 years it will be our turn!

[weatherdude1108]

Our weather service is already talking about late this week.


Heavy rain potential increasing for later in the work week. Stay tuned for updated weather packages for more details in the coming dates.

[Ntxw]

Trof+slow moving TC+fronts= deluge for someone. Too much of a good thing

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 212054
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
354 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal this afternoon and
will do so again tomorrow with isolated thunderstorms occurring
across the coastal plains. Luckily for us, temperatures did pause
briefly in their rise due to the partial eclipse that traversed
across the CONUS.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the coastal
plains as the influence of a large cyclonic gyre shifts towards the
Texas coast where slightly greater instability exists. This activity
will decrease after sunset as atmosphere restablizes.

Expect a near repeat of today`s weather tomorrow as the H5 ridge
slowly breaks down and the TUTT low shifts closer to the Texas coast
in western Gulf. Another round of showers and a few storms will be
likely across the coastal plains. Heat index values will reach into
the 100-104 degree range as well, minus the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Weather pattern is becoming increasingly concerning for heavy rain
potential in portions of mid-week and especially towards late
week/weekend as model indications suggest increasing tropical
influence. While model trends indicate this trend, more run-to-run
consistency needs to be seen before full confidence can be placed on
some of the more recent rainfall projections. None-the-less, areas of
heavy rain across the region could impact the region late week and
weekend. See below for details.

A longer wave trough axis will shift across the mid-MS Valley and
force a back-door front into north Texas. EC remains bullish on its
southern progress (likely convectively reinforced) and pivots an
axis of rain into at least north portions of the region here in
South-central Texas. Have weighted more towards the EC solution in
its handling of the previous system a few weeks ago. GFS remains
drier with the front remaining farther north at this time. The Hill
Country looks to be the more favored region for rain Wednesday
afternoon and again Thursday. Depending on how far south the front
shifts, pockets of rain could occur as far south as SA and into the
Rio Grande Plains Thursday as well. This does not bode well for what
can potentially occur this upcoming late week and weekend.

If soils become more saturated in the Hill Country and portions of
the area Wed-Thurs, lower absorption rates could pose a flooding and
river flooding risk for the weekend as both EC and GFS model
projections indicate the remnants of what was Harvey to shift
towards the region. Over the past 3-4 model cycles, global models
have come into agreement that in the Day 5-7 period, Harvey could
redevelop into an organized tropical cyclone across the southern
Gulf. Both models indicate a landfall near the mouth of the Rio
Grande River as the system tracks northwest into south-central Texas.
The biggest concern (as with any tropical system here) is heavy
inland rainfall. If this track occurs, high rainfall totals could
occur quickly and result in river and flash flooding. Confidence is
slowly increasing on this possibility. While the most recent run of
global models are suggesting extreme rainfall, we must keep in mind
how they and the system itself will evolve. The remnants of Harvey
remain a weak open wave at this time and model solutions on rainfall
amounts will shift a good amount over the next few days. Please stay
tuned through the week to solutions as extra upper-air balloon data
are ingested for refined rainfall amount potential and system
impacts.

[Brent]

DFW needs 2.96" of rain for wettest summer on record in the next 10 days

I'd say it's doable

[bubba hotep]

DFW needs 2.96" of rain for wettest summer on record in the next 10 days

I'd say it's doable

There are certainly a number of Harvey scenarios that get DFW well beyond that.

[Brent]

GFS way north this run I wouldn't even rule out Harvey getting close to DFW yet

How far north could it really go?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 9895778304

This rain map is not pretty. Well, looks i'll be visiting you guys alot here over the next few days.

We do a big celebration and party for our fantasy draft every year down in Sweeny on the San Bernard river. Def need to keep an eye on this.

So the major steering currents i read this morning will be the 850MB and 300 MB level according to the NWS. Not much going on at the 500MB level. Im worried about the continued trend and the fact that no matter what, any storm in the gulf could turn into a monster.

[Cpv17]

Down to 987mb at landfall. It looks to be strengthening as it's making landfall probably right around Rockport.

[bubba hotep]

GFS way north this run I wouldn't even rule out Harvey getting close to DFW yet

How far north could it really go?

Close bur makes the turn about 50 miles too soon on 18z!

[Ntxw]

What a 40" rain difference between 12Z and 18Z GFS in the hill country

[Tireman4]

What a 40" rain difference between 12Z and 18Z GFS in the hill country

Man..if this thing gets caught in a week slow moving fromt....ugg