ATL: HARVEY - Models

[sma10]

Wow. Not as familiar with Texas geography, but would this run bring tropical storm conditions to San Antonio, Austin and Houston?

[ROCK]

At this rate the models are trending, Louisiana better pay attention.

I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

[Kingarabian]

At this rate the models are trending, Louisiana better pay attention.

I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.

I'm confused on why it's barely a TS right until 24 hours before landfall when it'll be over water for a good 3 days after it emerges into the BOC.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

At this rate the models are trending, Louisiana better pay attention.

I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

[Kingarabian]

I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

That's a lot of strong wording IMO. While it does look like southern Texas is favored, it's still too early. 18z GFS trended north on a trend that has already been north. So with 4-5 days left before Harvey gets close to land areas, expect the track to shift as models have a had hard time even in the short range.

[Tireman4]

I agree. Still way way way too early to call anything. Let us get recon in there and let the models ingest the data.

[Portastorm]

Let this be the first (and certainly not the last) moderator note to all that should this system get its act together and threaten landfall in the USA, we will be cracking down on unsupported posts. You can have an opinion and express it here and we welcome that. But you better support those "it's not going there, it's going here" posts with some evidence.

[stormreader]

For what it's worth, here is the track The Racer's Hurricane took:

Definitely looks comparable to Hector in the Euro's latest run.

Also didn't know if the many hurricane followers on this board were familiar with a storm which took a somewhat comparable track as forecast by that latest Euro run. Racer's Storm 1837.

October 1837 – The Racer's Storm becomes the first hurricane on record to affect the entire Texas coastline. It first strikes near Brownsville on October 1, where it destroys most of the ships on Brazos Island.[4] Turning northeastward into the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane approaches Galveston on October 6, bringing a storm tide of at least 6 ft (1.8 m) which floods all of Galveston Island.[5] The storm destroys most of the buildings in Galveston, and across the coast, ships are washed ashore up to 3 miles (5 km) inland. It continues northeastward and leaves the state near Sabine Pass, after causing at least two deaths in the state.[4]

What it doesn't say here is that after skirting the Texas coast it turned and moved along the entire La. coast affecting Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans. Of course it was an October storm. But the track makes it one for the ages. The Euro run brought this storm to mind.

Thanks!

[hd44]

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

That's a lot of strong wording IMO. While it does look like southern Texas is favored, it's still too early. 18z GFS trended north on a trend that has already been north. So with 4-5 days left before Harvey gets close to land areas, expect the track to shift as models have a had hard time even in the short range.

Yeh I don't see how the Louisiana coast is out of play? Appears 12z euro sends it back east into the Gulf in the long range. Lots of changes still plausible . I think anywhere in Gulf is still in play.

[Cpv17]

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

That's a lot of strong wording IMO. While it does look like southern Texas is favored, it's still too early. 18z GFS trended north on a trend that has already been north. So with 4-5 days left before Harvey gets close to land areas, expect the track to shift as models have a had hard time even in the short range.

Yeh I don't see how the Louisiana coast is out of play? Appears 12z euro sends it back east into the Gulf in the long range. Lots of changes still plausible . I think anywhere in Gulf is still in play.

I still think the most likely place for landfall will be in south TX, but wow, what a trend by the models since Saturday. On Saturday many of us wrote this system off (including myself) because it looked like it was going towards Veracruz.

[Wx_Warrior]

Per Jim Cantore Twitter:

"Starting to get that curvy look... #harvey"

[perk]

I wouldn't go that far yet. We're getting to the point in time where the models should start to lock in the next few runs. A TX landfall looks likely right now.

SW LA might....all depends where that ULL and trof timing and any center relos...very complicated but worse case scenario is something to bomb out 84-96hrs out worst MET's nightmare.

Louisiana is out of play here clearly it barely has a chance to hit Texas I think corpus is as far as this will hit on first landfall !!!
However it could stall and go back over the gulf afterwards ! Southern texas needs to prepare

All of Texas need to monitor this system.

[SoupBone]

So here's a question. We obviously see the models all over the place but still continuing to move more north with each run. Are they being initialized in the correct location considering there's no well defined CoC? And if that's the case, how accurate can they really be at this point? I still think we're looking at a TexMex solution, but these northern jumps are downright concerning.

[ColdMiser123]

18z HWRF coming in a good bit stronger.

[South Texas Storms]

18z HWRF coming in a good bit stronger.

Yep and it looks to be coming in a bit farther south as well so far.

HMON looks similar to 12z in track, but it's stronger as well.

[ColdMiser123]

18z HWRF coming in a good bit stronger.

Yep and it looks to be coming in a bit farther south as well so far.

HMON looks similar to 12z in track, but it's stronger as well.

The 18z HMON looks similar to the 18z GFS.

18z GEFS coming in fairly bullish.

[Cpv17]

18z HWRF coming in a good bit stronger.

Yep and it looks to be coming in a bit farther south as well so far.

HMON looks similar to 12z in track, but it's stronger as well.

The 18z HMON looks similar to the 18z GFS.

18z GEFS coming in fairly bullish.

Picture?

[stormlover2013]

Navy 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=20

[TheStormExpert]

Yep and it looks to be coming in a bit farther south as well so far.

HMON looks similar to 12z in track, but it's stronger as well.

The 18z HMON looks similar to the 18z GFS.

18z GEFS coming in fairly bullish.

Picture?

18z GEFS Ensembles @ 84hrs.

[ROCK]

saw that 18Z NAVGEM not a good location... GEF are all up the down the coast as well...wow the right shift continues...don't want to be a NHC making a call on this...