ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

The NHC 8pm update has track arrow pointing towards Jacksonville and most models go into Miami...

Its the new nhc perpendicular model..nhc goes 90 degree angle to consensus

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/899785259499311104

[HurricaneRyan]

just die already. This invest has been incredibly annoying.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm stunned that they are considering burning fuel on 92L. The fact that it is so close to land may have something to do with the decision making. Would not surprise me to see them cancel tomorrow. Suppose they want to ensure they don't get any surprises thrown at them.

[StormTracker]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A trough of low pressure continues to move westward across the
Bahamas and now extends from 28N74W across the central Bahamas to
near 22N76W. This system continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, with fresh to strong winds mainly on
its NW side based on scatterometer data. Only slow development of
this system is anticipated during the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Farther east, there is another surface trough that extends 25N52W
to 16N55W. This trough is likely the surface reflection of an
upper-level low spinning near 26N57W. The remainder of the
forecast area is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR


Quick Links and Additional

[StormTracker]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I think 92L still able to punch out a fight via it's southern vorticity, though small i think it will be at least able to utilize the hot SST's to develop to Irma, but weak.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

just die already. This invest has been incredibly annoying.

Nope and i'm not annoyed with it. I am still sticking to my belief that 92L would develop to Irma regardless of the challenges it hits with. No. Just no. I won't make 92L die so soon.

[CFLHurricane]

just die already. This invest has been incredibly annoying.

Nope and i'm not annoyed with it. I am still sticking to my belief that 92L would develop to Irma regardless of the challenges it hits with. No. Just no. I won't make 92L die so soon.

If 92L becomes anything, it will be one of the greatest comebacks of all time. The current satellite presentation is the most pathetic I've ever seen!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Local mets are hyping the models. All I can say is: Live by the models. Die by the models...

[jlauderdal]

Local mets are hyping the models. All I can say is: Live by the models. Die by the models...

10/30 for invest...its going to be around for several more days..enjoy watching

[nativefloridian]

Local mets are hyping the models. All I can say is: Live by the models. Die by the models...

10/30 for invest...its going to be around for several more days..enjoy watching

[tiger_deF]

Can we even call this an invest at this point? I see literally nothing on satellite presentations; no clouds, no organized convection, no spin, no nothing. To see this regenerate would be like watching the Resurrection of Jesus at this point.

[SouthFLTropics]

While 92L looks like cow manure this morning it is likely to enhance rain chances across the peninsula with the daytime heating starting today. I'm more interested to see what comes off of the North coast of Cuba starting around Thursday AM. That is what the GFS keeps trying to spin up into a depression right off of the east coast of Florida. Big things can have small beginnings. If this spins up the way the GFS is showing and moves as slow as it shows then the potential for a large rain event for SE Florida could be in store through the weekend.

[jlauderdal]

Can we even call this an invest at this point? I see literally nothing on satellite presentations; no clouds, no organized convection, no spin, no nothing. To see this regenerate would be like watching the Resurrection of Jesus at this point.

It's always darkest before dawn

the clock has started on the rainfall contest..6.5 is our over under, contest started last night at midnight and ends friday at midnight..jupiter to hollywood but i am extending that to mia..convection building offshore se florida streaming northward so the setup is for everyone to build on totals today

[Blown Away]

Can we even call this an invest at this point? I see literally nothing on satellite presentations; no clouds, no organized convection, no spin, no nothing. To see this regenerate would be like watching the Resurrection of Jesus at this point.

It's always darkest before dawn

the clock has started on the rainfall contest..6.5 is our over under, contest started last night at midnight and ends friday at midnight..jupiter to hollywood but i am extending that to mia..convection building offshore se florida streaming northward so the setup is for everyone to build on totals today

jlauderdal, I thought we were solid... You can't include another 10 miles above Jupiter up to Hobe Sound...

[jlauderdal]

Can we even call this an invest at this point? I see literally nothing on satellite presentations; no clouds, no organized convection, no spin, no nothing. To see this regenerate would be like watching the Resurrection of Jesus at this point.

It's always darkest before dawn

the clock has started on the rainfall contest..6.5 is our over under, contest started last night at midnight and ends friday at midnight..jupiter to hollywood but i am extending that to mia..convection building offshore se florida streaming northward so the setup is for everyone to build on totals today

jlauderdal, I thought we were solid... You can't include another 10 miles above Jupiter up to Hobe Sound...

i didnt do the original parameters but lets do brevard, st lucie, martin, palm beach ,broward and dade...has to be an official nws station or at something they recognize as official not someones backyard weather station(like mine )...entries accepted through midnight tonight...its simple over under anywhere 6.5 inches through midnight friday night, nws reporting brevard st lucie, martin, palm beach ,broward and dade counties

[jlauderdal]

Chaser1, hope you are ok with the changes to your original poll. I will keep track of the entries and here is what i have so far, you can change yours if already submitted. Please DM me so we don't fill up the thread, i will post them all tomorrow morning.

Jlauderdal-over
Chaser1-over
Miami Storm Tracker-under
Boca-Under

[NDG]

We may still end up with weak development out of 92L but with the models showing Harvey getting one heck of an outflow with the UL antiyclone centered over the GOM this system will get northerly shear near FL preventing it from getting too much organized.

[Steve]

We may still end up with weak development out of 92L but with the models showing Harvey getting one heck of an outflow with the UL antiyclone centered over the GOM this system will get northerly shear near FL preventing it from getting too much organized.

NDG, I disagree. There's too much distance between the entities. I think it's completely plausible that something could come out of this particularly as it rides up the SW Atlantic several days from now.