ATL: HARVEY - Models

[hd44]

Ecmwf is weaker than 12z.

[SoupBone]

Euro northward shift to corpus !!

That's not a Corpus landfall but it's close.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro landfall North of Brownsville as a strong TS, 994mb;

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro operational is well in line with the 12z EPS.

[SoupBone]

00z Euro landfall North of Brownsville as a strong TS, 994mb;

Intensity is all over the place, even worse than landfall location.

[stormlover2013]

I suspect we will see another 100-150 miles shift north by wed!!

[Kingarabian]

Now that's a drastic difference between the GFS and the Euro. The GFS has a northern track thus it keeps Harvey over waters longer, which results in a Cat.4 into middle Texas. Euro shows less of a weakness and buries it in southern Texas sooner. Both solutions make sense and it pretty much will come down to the trough and how quickly Harvey feels it. The G-IV data will be useful.

However both the GFS and Euro solutions have one thing in common: Texas is under the gun.

[hd44]

Now that's a drastic difference between the GFS and the Euro. The GFS has a northern track thus it keeps Harvey over waters longer, which results in a Cat.4 into middle Texas. Euro shows less of a weakness and buries it in southern Texas sooner. Both solutions make sense and it pretty much will come down to the trough and how quickly Harvey feels it. The G-IV data will be useful.

However both the GFS and Euro solutions have one thing in common: Texas is under the gun.

Lean to Gfs... Ukmet has been doing better with track than Ecmwf this year and it is closer to the Gfs.

[Kingarabian]

Now that's a drastic difference between the GFS and the Euro. The GFS has a northern track thus it keeps Harvey over waters longer, which results in a Cat.4 into middle Texas. Euro shows less of a weakness and buries it in southern Texas sooner. Both solutions make sense and it pretty much will come down to the trough and how quickly Harvey feels it. The G-IV data will be useful.

However both the GFS and Euro solutions have one thing in common: Texas is under the gun.

Lean to Gfs... Ukmet has been doing better with track than Ecmwf this year and it is closer to the Gfs.

All the depictions by the GFS/UKMET/Euro make sense to me. Don't see any bogus initialization etc. The track is simply dependant on the evolution of Harvey. It's a consensus between the models that the trough is there.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours120-144.



Swamping southern Texas.

[Cpv17]

00z Euro hours120-144.



Swamping southern Texas.

What's up with the stalling/slow movement on the Euro? The GFS zips this thing right along.

[South Texas Storms]

00z Euro operational is well in line with the 12z EPS.

And quite similar to the 12z Euro operational run.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours120-144.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/tK2dlNY.gif[img]

Swamping southern Texas.

What's up with the stalling/slow movement on the Euro? The GFS zips this thing right along.

Looks like the high builds back and traps it. Looks like steering will be weak through days 5-7. That means a lot of flooding.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 168. Back over water and moving North east:

[Kingarabian]

Yo, the Euro keeps Harvey as a strong TS over southern Texas for 3 days. That's bad.

[SoupBone]

And still a strong TS? Wth

[hd44]

Cmc/ecmwf showing one of the biggest flood potential disasters with 1 to 2 feet of rain over a wide area that its alarming. I hope people are paying attention.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 174 beginning to deepen the system over water just south of Galveston.

[hd44]

I haven't seen this kind of output since the Louisiana floods of last year.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro 186-192 hours: Second landfall over western Lousiana as a 986mb hurricane: