ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Cpv17]

I thought it was really weird earlier watching the 6pm forecast on abc13 with Tim Heller and he didn't even seem really concerned. And it wasn't even a top story. They barely even gave it a mention. Then he used a graphic during his forecast that had the spaghetti plots going mostly into Mexico. They looked outdated or old or something because they were not the same plots that were being posted on here.

[South Texas Storms]

6z NAM with a slight westward shift.

[caneman]

Yikes. Models getting some consensus. Buckle down Texas. Looks like a lot of flooding rains being modeled.

[GCANE]

I consider COAMPS a high-reliability model.
It was spot on with Franklin; especially, forecasting strengthening in the BoC.

For Harvey, it is forecasting a large system off the TX coast.
Pretty much from the TexMex Border to Houston.
Of course that will tighten up before landfall.

Closly watching subsequent runs if Enthalpy Flux deepens.
If so, this could be a headliner.

[msp]

6z GFS landfalls at 7pm Friday at 959mb between freeport and matagorda bay... east of 0z

[CDO62]

06z 84hrs

[GCANE]

GFS showing a saturated air column ahead of Harvey just before landfall.
Essentially from the Boundary Layer to the Tropopause.
This could be a massive warm core.
They way the models are going, this looks very ominous.

[WAcyclone]

The 00z UKMET ensembles have a huge spread from south of Tampico to Louisiana but they are generally south of the operational run. However, compared to the 12z ensembles (which only had 2 members into Texas) they shifted significantly to the north. Also note that almost all of them are showing Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricanes...

[msp]

6z GFS says over a foot of rain for HOU

That's now the GFS, Euro, and CMC showing a huge flooding threat for the city

[stormreader]

06z 84hrs

Over the course of the last couple of days models have shifted north and east. Is that model trend completed? Maybe. 84 hours model reliability much stronger. But still a very delicate situation with the ULL shift and the strength of the ULL. My gut tells me we might see another shift north and east. Not radical, but we are getting close to landfall. Somewhere around the Galveston to Port Arthur area for actual landfall of a slow moving system with the attended move more NE over the next couple of days. I think would put the system very near that original Euro wake up call from about 4 days ago when it had a substantial hurricane off the upper Texas coast with not a lot of movement at that time. So that would be my best call. Galveston to Golden Triangle. Flooding rains depending on that landfall.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The run was a 70kt cane.

[stormreader]

System set to exit Yucatan with retrograding ULL in the GOM. Storm to move up in general direction of where the weakening ULL is now. Very delicate forecast for models and storm could actually wobble some as it approaches the coast. My hunch would be for wobbles to the right as it works its way up for a final landfall along the very upper Texas coast with those last wobbles right. Won't even rule out Sabine Pass. But Galveston to Port Arthur (just left of Sabine Pass) would be my best guess.

[weatherguy425]

System set to exit Yucatan with retrograding ULL in the GOM. Storm to move up in general direction of where the weakening ULL is now. Very delicate forecast for models and storm could actually wobble some as it approaches the coast. My hunch would be for wobbles to the right as it works its way up for a final landfall along the very upper Texas coast with those last wobbles right. Won't even rule out Sabine Pass. But Galveston to Port Arthur (just left of Sabine Pass) would be my best guess.

That TUTT feature is modeled [and can be seen] moving westward as it fills in. Position now won't neccesarily be the position of any future remnant weakness. As you said, complicated setup.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone has been pretty much over Harvey since the last couple days.
It appears it will stay that way thru the GOM.
355K PV looks very ominous, with no impairments to the vort column.
According to this latest GFS forecast, Harvey's vort column should be perfectly structured as he hits the coast.

[jconsor]

Where is the UKMET ens chart you posted from? Haven't seen that one before.

Thanks!

The 00z UKMET ensembles have a huge spread from south of Tampico to Louisiana but they are generally south of the operational run. However, compared to the 12z ensembles (which only had 2 members into Texas) they shifted significantly to the north. Also note that almost all of them are showing Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricanes...

[WAcyclone]

Where is the UKMET ens chart you posted from? Haven't seen that one before.

Thanks!

The 00z UKMET ensembles have a huge spread from south of Tampico to Louisiana but they are generally south of the operational run. However, compared to the 12z ensembles (which only had 2 members into Texas) they shifted significantly to the north. Also note that almost all of them are showing Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricanes...

http://i.imgur.com/cH0BKWk.png

It's from the NOAA ESRL page: https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

You can select "Color track by Intensity" if you scroll down a little bit. Unfortunately, the ECMWF ensembles update very late and irregularly on this page but the UKMET ensembles are working well

[ColdMiser123]

Both 6z HWRF and 6z HMON shifted north. HMON is just north of Brownsville, HWRF is Corpus Christi.

[NDG]

HWRF finally came to its senses, but not good for TX.

[JtSmarts]

That was a big shift from the HWRF, from south of the Border to just north of CC. I don't think any of the big models are in Mexico any longer.

[ATCcane]

Both 6z HWRF and 6z HMON shifted north. HMON is just north of Brownsville, HWRF is Corpus Christi.

That pretty much puts all of them into Texas now.