ATL: HARVEY - Models

[jasons2k]

We are definitely taking notice of the model shifts up the Texas coast.

[PTrackerLA]

A potential developing Cat. 2 barreling into SE Texas should be talked about more than it currently has been.

It will be. I was 2 pages behind on both threads when I woke up and I went to bed late. The panicked, out the woodwork and new crowd will be having this going nuts within the next couple of days.

I'm already running on a lack of sleep after last night! Looks like a long week ahead. 12z GFS rolls soon....

[Roxy]

I see you all talking about track, what is the model consensus about intensity??

[ROCK]

A potential developing Cat. 2 barreling into SE Texas should be talked about more than it currently has been.

It will be. I was 2 pages behind on both threads when I woke up and I went to bed late. The panicked, out the woodwork and new crowd will be having this going nuts within the next couple of days.

yeah Steve as soon as it hits the media...... Lord of the Flies stuff starts...

[ROCK]

I see you all talking about track, what is the model consensus about intensity??

model of intensity? there is no consensus...lol just like the track is narrowing down the intensity issue lags. Need more development..

[jaguars_22]

That upper low looks to be weakening??

[Houstonia]

Off-topic: I started warning my FB peeps last night. This morning, I raised the flag on my neighborhood FB page. Someone immediately replied, "the professionals say it's going to Mexico. No need to worry, but always good to have preparations in hand." They quoted a weather.com article from 8 pm LAST NIGHT. I wrote back politely saying that I was quoting a local meteorologist and that maybe he should monitor local forecasters rather than weather.com.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Too far south to be taken seriously but the 12z NAM12km, 32km and 3km all have slightly different solutions. First it comes off the Yucatan and loops or stalls and then depending on the resolution picks up a northward component but eventually wants to go to the TX Coast (between mid and upper depending on the resolution you run). 3km is the tightest and it's the farthest south. But caution is that it only goes to 60 hours, so there's no end game on it yet. 12z is making a run for the SE TX Coast after a couple of spins or loops (runs to 84 hours). 32km is making a run for Galveston Bay.

If I remember correctly it showed a loop or two with cindy at first as well but never happened. BUT it did get it right with her slowly crawling wnw south of the LA coastline while the gfs was east and euro was west.

[jaguars_22]

GFS looks like it farther south so far thru 24hrs. Slow mover!!!!:(

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS coming in further south through 24hrs.

[ROCK]

We are definitely taking notice of the model shifts up the Texas coast.

hey Jason....glad you could make it...could use some sanity in here and talk me off the ledge..

[jaguars_22]

Im going to say Galveston on the gFS

[SoupBone]

GFS 60 hours

[Alyono]

GFS weaker and slightly farther west

[SoupBone]

66 hours

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS weaker and slightly farther west

Both it and the NAM trending west, and the GFS is weaker no doubt.

[SoupBone]

78 hours GFS

[SoupBone]

84 Hours, inland

[msp]

12z Gfs landfall at 979mb at port aransas

so noticeably weaker and farther south

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Like I said the north shifts are over and expect the next run to be probably more west than that