ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Finally back from Europe trip and recovery from the traveling.. I see things are getting interesting..

First look this morning. the center of the broad low level turning is about to be emerging off the west coast of the YP about halfway down. though at this point wherever convection develops a center could easily develop.

[GCANE]

Finally back from Europe trip and recovery from the traveling.. I see things are getting interesting..

First look this morning. the center broad low level turning is about to be emerging off the west coast of the YP about halfway down. though at this point wherever convection develops a center could easily develop.

Welcome back Eric, hope the trip was good.

A long duration Vortical Hot Tower was firing NE of Cancun this morning.

From what I see on VIS, it looks like it got the 500mb vort turning better.

850 to 700mb vorts look to be closed off.

I am thinking it'll stack up tonight once over the water.

[Aric Dunn]

Finally back from Europe trip and recovery from the traveling.. I see things are getting interesting..

First look this morning. the center broad low level turning is about to be emerging off the west coast of the YP about halfway down. though at this point wherever convection develops a center could easily develop.

Welcome back Eric, hope the trip was good.

A long duration Vortical Hot Tower was firing NE of Cancun this morning.

From what I see on VIS, it looks like it got the 500mb vort turning better.

850 to 700mb vorts look to be closed off.

I am thinking it'll stack up tonight once over the water.

Yeah though Im watching the convection off the NW tip. It will likely be a convectionless swirl at first just south of that new convection in about 6 to 8 hours before things start to really get going.

[GCANE]

The ULL may be breaking down some.
Its 500mb vort is moving away west of its 200mb vort.
Seeing some popups fire off in the dry slot south of it.

[tolakram]

Center of the large circulation looks south to me. Using SLIDER I've drawn a circle where I see it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5126.5&y=6850.5&z=3&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=1&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

I can see the more northerly circulation as well.

[stormreader]

Might help to remember from where we have come in regards to model runs we have now. Harvey was at one point just off the Nicaraguan Honduran border and forecast by practically all models to landfall in Belize and then barely make it into the extreme southern GOM for a second landfall perhaps just north of the lower Mexican coast between Vera Cruz and Tampico. Instead check its position now. Has practically moved a due NW course to get to present location (still in the form of an open wave). Continuing on present course will take him to the mid Texas coast. A slightly right of center course would take him toward the extreme upper Texas coast. That's what I think may be more likely upon organization---more of a poleward component down the line. Then the NE component after landfall.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: I can see the more northerly circulation as well.

A lot of Cumulus Nimbus are already forming.
Convection likely to explode this afternoon.

[Frank P]

From what I can tell area might be the center of the low pressure... although I did see several what looked to be really weak vortices rotating around the low. Still looks to be moving off to the WNW... MHO

[davidiowx]

From what I can tell area might be the center of the low pressure... although I did see several what looked to be really weak vortices rotating around the low. Still looks to be moving off to the WNW... MHO
https://image.ibb.co/f6s2Bk/GOES161220172348x_OAJA.jpg

That's about where I see it as well.

[Stormcenter]

Lots of convection building north of the Yucatan, that would be an area to watch for a "possible" center redevelopment. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-avn.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

From what I can tell area might be the center of the low pressure... although I did see several what looked to be really weak vortices rotating around the low. Still looks to be moving off to the WNW... MHO
https://image.ibb.co/f6s2Bk/GOES1612201 ... %20AJA.jpg

That's about where I see it as well.

I see it there as well, looks like that will be over water this afternoon or tonight. When did they think it was going to be over water? I think the convection over water to the NE is an example of what is going to happen in the area of most convergence, or the Low.

[tarheelprogrammer]

From what I can tell area might be the center of the low pressure... although I did see several what looked to be really weak vortices rotating around the low. Still looks to be moving off to the WNW... MHO
https://image.ibb.co/f6s2Bk/GOES161220172348x_OAJA.jpg

Yeah, you may be right. Several vortices rotating around that area.

[p1nheadlarry]

8:00 AM TWO says overnight

[wxman57]

Getting busy today. Don't like the model trends toward mid TX coast then stalling inland for a while. Could be an extremely heavy rain event setting up for Texas.

[Frank P]

Center starting to hint of tightening up a tad over the past 40 minutes or so ... center location below... thus far I could not discern any low relocation off to the north of the system... but that does not mean it might not later... just my observation... also small convection slowing starting to develop around this center as well just on the NE side

[Tireman4]

Getting busy today. Don't like the model trends toward mid TX coast then stalling inland for a while. Could be an extremely heavy rain event setting up for Texas.

Like I told Porta, Sandy and Srain, I have a bad feeling about this.....

[SoupBone]

Center of the large circulation looks south to me. Using SLIDER I've drawn a circle where I see it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5126.5&y=6850.5&z=3&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=1&s=rammb-slider

Is that not much further south than it should be right now?

[tolakram]

Center of the large circulation looks south to me. Using SLIDER I've drawn a circle where I see it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5126.5&y=6850.5&z=3&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=1&s=rammb-slider

Is that not much further south than it should be right now?

There appear to be multiple 'centers'.

[Frank P]

Center of the large circulation looks south to me. Using SLIDER I've drawn a circle where I see it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5126.5&y=6850.5&z=3&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=1&s=rammb-slider

Is that not much further south than it should be right now?

I think that is about pretty much where it should be... my opinion...