ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Center of the large circulation looks south to me. Using SLIDER I've drawn a circle where I see it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5126.5&y=6850.5&z=3&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=1&s=rammb-slider

Is that not much further south than it should be right now?

There appear to be multiple 'centers'.

I saw some very weak vortices rotation around the low but nothing this dominant.. my opinion...

[wxman57]

I don't see anything down south. Follow the convection - there's nothing down there. I'm looking toward the NW Yucatan Peninsula for a low to become better-organized.

[Frank P]

I don't see anything down south. Follow the convection - there's nothing down there. I'm looking toward the NW Yucatan Peninsula for a low to become better-organized.

Not sure if you saw this wxman57 but here is where I have the center.. seems to be tightening up a bit over the past hour or so..

[Aric Dunn]

At least right now. the broad center/swirl is heading towards the NW tip of the YP. however watch the convection offshore to the NW for the next few hours.

[stormreader]

I don't see anything down south. Follow the convection - there's nothing down there. I'm looking toward the NW Yucatan Peninsula for a low to become better-organized.

Not sure if you saw this wxman57 but here is where I have the center.. seems to be tightening up a bit over the past hour or so..
https://image.ibb.co/cLjccQ/GOES16472017234_OTmr_OS.jpg

I agree with the posts about the center being over the NW Yucatan now. The storm is further north than was anticipated by models when it was near the Nicaraguan-Honduran border. As an open wave it has moved basically NW since then. Continued motion on this regard (generally) will bring it to the central Texas coast. But with stalls and fine-tuning of track (wobbles) thrown in, can't be so sure. My hunch is to deviate right (especially with models looking at a later right turn anyway). That's why I think the Galveston to Sabine Pass area is more likely.

[stormreader]

And you know, its a very broad "center" right now, over the NW Yucatan I think. So broad that its probably actually coming offshore right now as we speak. Organization in the GOM will probably begin at anytime, now.

[MGC]

Nothing over Mexico but fair weather cumulus clouds and I don't see a circulation down there either. Go where the Convection is....MGC

[tailgater]

I'm hesitant to say, clear CoC from a satellite loop but I will anyway, right about where Frank P has it marked a couple of post earlier. It WILL likely wobble a bit until it is completely clear of the Yucatan Pennisula.

[Aric Dunn]

the last hour or so that weak turning is becoming somewhat more defined and also appears to be lifting more nnw to nw likely a response to the convection building offshore and some slight pressure falls there. should be offshore in a couple hours.

[Nimbus]

Its very dry which will inhibit redevelopment some.
I think the center coming off near Celestún will start picking up convection again tonight.
Still a little shear from the SW that may muck up the steering flow for a while.

[Blinhart]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-animated.gif

I don't see anything down south. Follow the convection - there's nothing down there. I'm looking toward the NW Yucatan Peninsula for a low to become better-organized.

Not sure if you saw this wxman57 but here is where I have the center.. seems to be tightening up a bit over the past hour or so..
https://image.ibb.co/cLjccQ/GOES16472017234_OTmr_OS.jpg

I agree with the posts about the center being over the NW Yucatan now. The storm is further north than was anticipated by models when it was near the Nicaraguan-Honduran border. As an open wave it has moved basically NW since then. Continued motion on this regard (generally) will bring it to the central Texas coast. But with stalls and fine-tuning of track (wobbles) thrown in, can't be so sure. My hunch is to deviate right (especially with models looking at a later right turn anyway). That's why I think the Galveston to Sabine Pass area is more likely.

With that sat loop I don't see anyway that this will come in anywhere south of CC, I think it will be closer to PA, Tx to IC, La. This system is very hard to read though, so anything can happen. We got to wait for a closed circulation to really have any idea, and the jets info we will be getting in the next 24 hours will help decide on where it will make landfall.

[Blinhart]

I'm hesitant to say, clear CoC from a satellite loop but I will anyway, right about where Frank P has it marked a couple of post earlier. It WILL likely wobble a bit until it is completely clear of the Yucatan Pennisula.

I'm thinking it is actually more NE (by like 150 to 200 miles) than where Frank P has it.

[Blinhart]

To my untrained eye it looks like the center of this system is about to come offshore of the YP.

[Frank P]

I'm hesitant to say, clear CoC from a satellite loop but I will anyway, right about where Frank P has it marked a couple of post earlier. It WILL likely wobble a bit until it is completely clear of the Yucatan Pennisula.

Does look to continue to slowly tighten up and get a little better define..... I would estimate the center of this "broad center" is probably only less than 30-40 miles from the Gulf... does hint of a more NWerly motion...

[Frank P]

I'm hesitant to say, clear CoC from a satellite loop but I will anyway, right about where Frank P has it marked a couple of post earlier. It WILL likely wobble a bit until it is completely clear of the Yucatan Pennisula.

I'm thinking it is actually more NE (by like 150 to 200 miles) than where Frank P has it.

I stared at that area for quite some time, could not discern any low per the visible loops, but that does not mean one is not there..

[Hurricaneman]

To my untrained eye it looks like the center of this system is about to come offshore of the YP.

If that becomes the dominant low the models from 12z will have to be thrown in the trash as initialization will be wrong and this even might open up places further east like dare I say even the panhandle of Florida

[stormreader]

the last hour or so that weak turning is becoming somewhat more defined and also appears to be lifting more nnw to nw likely a response to the convection building offshore and some slight pressure falls there. should be offshore in a couple hours.

Think so, Aric. Looking for a cyclone formation perhaps a little further north in GOM than anticipated.

[latitude_20]

Dense overcast and a beautiful 79F here in Tulum. Intermittent rain showers are ticking me off as I'm trying to work on a vehicle, lol.

[Blinhart]

OK, I don't know if this has been discussed, but what is the likely hood of 92L making it over Florida a little faster than expected and the remnants of Harvey forms more NE than expected and moves slower than expected, is there a chance we could see a Fujiwara effect happen in the Gulf of Mexico?????

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 90%/100%

Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.