ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

I'm hesitant to say, clear CoC from a satellite loop but I will anyway, right about where Frank P has it marked a couple of post earlier. It WILL likely wobble a bit until it is completely clear of the Yucatan Pennisula.

Does look to continue to slowly tighten up and get a little better define..... I would estimate the center of this "broad center" is probably only less than 30-40 miles from the Gulf... does hint of a more NWerly motion...

A cute little T-storm popping right over the center to Highlight it. Too early for me to tell its direction yet.

[Stormcenter]

The NHC more than likely already had seen the latest EURO when they issue their 2pm outlook and still put Texas under the gun for a TS or hurricane so
that to me says a lot. IMO

[Alyono]

The NHC more than likely already had seen the latest EURO when they issue their 2pm outlook and still put Texas under the gun for a TS or hurricane so
that to me says a lot. IMO

no, they did not. The EC run does not start until 1745 UTC

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like that area is elongating SE to NW and convection firing just offshore now. and to the NW this should begin to migrate pretty quickly to the convection in the next hour or so and start showing more definition probably rather fast.

[Craters]

I believe the center is wrong, at least the one pointed out by the NHC. I believe the center is just north of the northwestern tip of the Yucatan. Just to point that out. If you watch visible loops you can see that everything seems to be pivoting around that area in the low levels. This is just my opinion of course, and could be wrong.

And, as a totally irrelevant tidbit, THP, that would place it right over the center of the crater made by the impact that probably took out the dinosaurs. There could be something cosmic in that. On the other hand, probably not.

[Aric Dunn]

I believe the center is wrong, at least the one pointed out by the NHC. I believe the center is just north of the northwestern tip of the Yucatan. Just to point that out. If you watch visible loops you can see that everything seems to be pivoting around that area in the low levels. This is just my opinion of course, and could be wrong.

And, as a totally irrelevant tidbit, THP, that would place it right over the center of the crater made by the impact that probably took out the dinosaurs. There could be something cosmic in that. On the other hand, probably not.

A little ancient aliens action

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 20.3°N 89.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Frank P]

That is pretty much where I have been posting the broad center most of the day... still on the NW Yucatan but now only a few miles from entering Gulf.. best I can tell its moving off to the NWish...

[NDG]

You can clearly see the circulation starting to become better defined on the NW tip of the YP.

[Cuda17]

That is pretty much where I have been posting the broad center most of the day... still on the NW Yucatan but now only a few miles from entering Gulf.. best I can tell its moving off to the NWish...

You nailed it Frank! Good job!

[stormreader]

18z Best Track:

Location: 20.3°N 89.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

http://i.imgur.com/m3BMDZE.png

That's perfect. Where it was guessed at by a couple of us on this thread a little earlier.

[Frank P]

That is pretty much where I have been posting the broad center most of the day... still on the NW Yucatan but now only a few miles from entering Gulf.. best I can tell its moving off to the NWish...

You nailed it Frank! Good job!

Sometimes ya just get lucky Cuda17 but thanks..

[Frank P]

[quote="NDG"]You can clearly see the circulation starting to become better defined on the NW tip of the YP.

NDG, can you discern a motion off this... looks to me about NW but not positive...

[NDG]

You can clearly see the circulation starting to become better defined on the NW tip of the YP.

NDG, can you discern a motion off this... looks to me about NW but not positive...

Yes, is probably more NW than WNW, I just drew a general arrow to indicate that is moving towards the northern BOC/southern GOM.

[tolakram]

Looks to my amateur eye that the center scooted toward the shore in the last hour or so and, as of this loop, is half offshore and firing new convection.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5140.5&y=6502.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[CycloneGuru]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ft-animated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to my amateur eye that the center scooted toward the shore in the last hour or so and, as of this loop, is half offshore and firing new convection.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5140.5&y=6502.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

yes, and its starting to organize pretty quickly. some west winds possible evident now.

[cycloneye]

Getting that look.

[Dave C]

Running the sat. loop Cycloneguru just provided seems to show some nw movement to the upper low now.

[Frank P]

Here is where the center is... very close to the Gulf and convection firing off on all sides..