ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

@NHC_Atlantic
The @NOAA G-IV jet has taken off to conduct synoptic surveillance in the Gulf of Mexico to assist forecasts for the remnants of #Harvey

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/900072273339666432

[jlauderdal]

TD12/Katrina went from TD to landfall in SFL in 48 hours...

yes and instead of heading west it headed sw on approach and the rest is history...beware of percolating storms close in

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on the modeling I would expect this to spin up and head north along the coastline instead of west like Katrina did. The trough should be sweeping through and pull whatever forms to the north. It will take some time though. If it forms as shown I expect a pretty wet week and weekend ahead along the east coast of Florida. The big question is how strong does this have the potential to get. Could it make a run at TS status before heading north? With the Gulf Stream waters I'd say that is a distinct possibility.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I don't see anything I would call banding as mentioned by another poster, I expected more rain today in Miami other than a couple early morning showers we had.

[jlauderdal]

I don't see anything I would call banding as mentioned by another poster, I expected more rain today in Miami other than a couple early morning showers we had.

considering full sun this morning after early showers im surprised we werent able to generate more convection; the over 6.5 isnt looking so good but still have three days to do it

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol J,

Thinking the same thing here, I just need to cover 5" good luck.

[floridasun78]

look like Harvey taking all energy from 92l from area but look se part of wave could win over other area

[HURAKAN]

any development is likely going to take place after Harvey moves inland and 92L is located off the SE US ... Harvey's outflow over the GOM will likely increase the shear over this system in the next few days

[Hammy]

any development is likely going to take place after Harvey moves inland and 92L is located off the SE US ... Harvey's outflow over the GOM will likely increase the shear over this system in the next few days

How likely would you say development is (as opposed to something frontal) or would it be more subtropical? The models don't appear to show a tropical system.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Time to stuff my face with crow. Mostly just Rain for the east coast of Florida then out to sea where it may develop.

[jlauderdal]

Lol J,

Thinking the same thing here, I just need to cover 5" good luck.

its going to come down to the end of the contest for 6.5, looks like heaviest rain moves in thursday and friday but will see, these setups can surprise to both the upside and downside like we saw today

[boca]

I think our rain will be caused from both 92L and the trough moving into N Florida

[OuterBanker]

Probably just temporary. It appears that something is spinning up just north of great abaco. Or is it me?
92 l is driving me nuts. Thought for sure that bones was calling it yesterday.

[floridasun78]

Here are the areas where Gonzo will let go the dropsondes to sample the upper atmosphere.



 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/900032509311721472

nasa use it on monday g6 for take pic of sun eclipse NASA tv say that on monday

[HURAKAN]

any development is likely going to take place after Harvey moves inland and 92L is located off the SE US ... Harvey's outflow over the GOM will likely increase the shear over this system in the next few days

How likely would you say development is (as opposed to something frontal) or would it be more subtropical? The models don't appear to show a tropical system.

it is still quite uncertain because it is in the long range ... however, the system will interact with the frontal boundary and it could be subtropical when it develops

[Clint_TX]

Behold

[cycloneye]

GONZO is dropping many dropsondes on this mission to sample the upper atmosphere and feed the data to the models for the 00z runs.

[cycloneye]

More dropsondes are launched.

[ROCK]

that is so awesome...it is what we needed...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Boca & J,

J you are still thinking u will get ur 6" wow stick to your guns.