ATL: HARVEY - Models

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stormreader

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1541 Postby stormreader » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:54 pm

wicked_wx_watcher wrote:
stormreader wrote:
stormreader wrote:Very reasonable. I still favor slightly west of that run, more like Port Arthur or Sabine Pass at the Tex-La border. But splitting hairs here, that's very close.

Of course, big difference is that this is a second landfall, with first being on Texas coast.


In case some can't read it on their phone, this is Wednesday Aug 30 7:00 am

Now you've really put it all in perspective with that one sentence!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1542 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:58 pm

NAM going for fairly high westerly shear again as it moves into the northern Gulf
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1543 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:01 pm

12z UKMET ensembles again shifted significantly to the north. They are now much more in line with the operational run.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1544 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:07 pm

I don't like the direct NW movement the UKMET shows, so far this has been moving west or just north of west.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1545 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:09 pm

tolakram wrote:I don't like the direct NW movement the UKMET shows, so far this has been moving west or just north of west.


I agree Mark. UKMET is the northeastern outlier right now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1546 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:09 pm

What is notable is not only the track from the UKMO but the fact that so many of the ensemble members are taking it to cat1-2 strength, whilst the flooding rains maybe the main story, this still will be a strong wind event.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1547 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:12 pm

its called that ULL which is enhancing the convection of Harv sling shoting Harv around it into the weakness then the high builds in and shunts this NE....timing is everything here...Does it do it before landfall or after? models are still bouncing but the UKMET has been pretty steadfast...and modes are upticking up the coast.. with Gonzo data tonight this will help a lot...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1548 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:19 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
tolakram wrote:I don't like the direct NW movement the UKMET shows, so far this has been moving west or just north of west.


I agree Mark. UKMET is the northeastern outlier right now.

I'm expecting the UK model to shift west because it's clearly a outlier the only other model that agrees is the NAM 32KM but most models like the EURO AND GFS take this closer to Matagorda Bay or north padre island I honestly think it'll hit somewhere between the border and Matagorda Bay!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1549 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:24 pm

Texas looks to be the bullseye:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1550 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:27 pm

Wonder if the 00z Euro will shift back to the SW to get in line with the 12z EPS...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1551 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:29 pm

^^^ XTRP showing that the general direction right now is pretty much the same as the initial direction in the latest UKMET run.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1552 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Wonder if the 00z Euro will shift back to the SW to get in line with the 12z EPS...


didn't get these yet. They shift back to Mexico?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1553 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:29 pm

18z GFS coming in a bit more north:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1554 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:31 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Wonder if the 00z Euro will shift back to the SW to get in line with the 12z EPS...


didn't get these yet. They shift back to Mexico?


They're almost the same as the 00z EPS except they keep the system over southern Texas until day 10. EPS has landfall on Mexico's side, just south of Brownsville.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1555 Postby Christiana » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:32 pm

I look at outliers as the potential boundaries of possibilities at any given time during the forecasting. Timing can and does change everything sometimes. This one seems to have many influencing factors at play so I would expect and hope the models with their individual strengths explores them all in order to give the pros all the info they need. I always assume the outliers are looking at the setup in a slightly different way proportional to their strength. Looking at the current sat presentation, this thing has the potential to be one of those HUGE GOM monsters. Potential catastrophic rains ahead for a lot of territory. Likely to be a long duration unfolding event.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1556 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:32 pm

This run of the GFS doesn't have the GIV data in it. Hopefully we will get at least some of that data in the 0z runs tonight.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1557 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:32 pm

On tdbits looks like Ecmwf ensemble mean is over southern Texas... not much of a south shift and then the mean takes it back over water.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1558 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:33 pm

Im just waiting for this gfs to change the game and head for Galveston
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1559 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:34 pm

hd44 wrote:On tdbits looks like Ecmwf ensemble mean is over southern Texas... not much of a south shift and then the mean takes it back over water.


Very low resolution on tropical tidbits that it's hard to tell. High resolution EPS control is a landfall on the Mexican side, just south of the border.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1560 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm

18z GFS 24 hours:

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