ATL: HARVEY - Models

[sphelps8681]

Rainfall estimates are insane

What do you think are estimate of rainfall will be north of beaumont.

[Kingarabian]

Look at the variance from the GFS in the past 4 runs...

[hd44]

Anyone got Ukmet text output

[mcheer23]

Can't say I quite agree with the CMC.

[msp]

Canadian also takes the remnants and brings them southwestward into Mexico after landfall rather than NE toward houston (like most models)

[Alyono]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 90.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2017 0 20.3N 90.6W 1009 25
1200UTC 23.08.2017 12 21.7N 91.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 24.08.2017 24 22.3N 92.3W 1002 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 36 23.4N 92.6W 996 40
0000UTC 25.08.2017 48 24.7N 93.3W 987 48
1200UTC 25.08.2017 60 26.3N 94.4W 977 55
0000UTC 26.08.2017 72 28.1N 95.1W 968 64
1200UTC 26.08.2017 84 29.5N 95.1W 969 63
0000UTC 27.08.2017 96 30.6N 94.5W 982 43
1200UTC 27.08.2017 108 31.3N 93.9W 991 35
0000UTC 28.08.2017 120 31.7N 93.2W 997 28
1200UTC 28.08.2017 132 32.2N 92.4W 1000 27
0000UTC 29.08.2017 144 32.8N 92.1W 1002 22

less model agreement than before

[Christiana]

On the Katrina anniversary. I know, apples and oranges, but geez. Mother Nature, NOT FUNNY. If this slow moving storm unfolds in this fashion the flooding Gulf Coast wide is going to be disastrous. We are already soaked down here, very rainy summer. Half the pumps in NOLA are offline and in disrepair. Looking forward to the consensus of the model runs in the next 24-48. Take care Texas. BTW: our friendly Prime online marketplace has lots of portable generators on sale. Thanks to all for posting the model runs.

00z GFS hour 144 -- on route to Florida:

[ROCK]

CMC really no help In narrowing down path so from lower TX coast to LA wow

[South Texas Storms]

Quite the consistency there King haha. Still a low confidence forecast.

[Steve]

Yeah. It goes in at 986 on that resolution but just hooks in and down. Also possible. Matthew was I think the only real recent example of a system that could go in many different directions including strength.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow the UKMET is really holding firm on basically the same track since 00z last night. It seemed to do well with Matthew last year seeing the westward shifts earliest IIRC.

[hd44]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 90.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2017 0 20.3N 90.6W 1009 25
1200UTC 23.08.2017 12 21.7N 91.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 24.08.2017 24 22.3N 92.3W 1002 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 36 23.4N 92.6W 996 40
0000UTC 25.08.2017 48 24.7N 93.3W 987 48
1200UTC 25.08.2017 60 26.3N 94.4W 977 55
0000UTC 26.08.2017 72 28.1N 95.1W 968 64
1200UTC 26.08.2017 84 29.5N 95.1W 969 63
0000UTC 27.08.2017 96 30.6N 94.5W 982 43
1200UTC 27.08.2017 108 31.3N 93.9W 991 35
0000UTC 28.08.2017 120 31.7N 93.2W 997 28
1200UTC 28.08.2017 132 32.2N 92.4W 1000 27
0000UTC 29.08.2017 144 32.8N 92.1W 1002 22

less model agreement than before

Wow ukmet thinks this is a td already?

[hd44]

Wow the UKMET is really holding firm on basically the same track since 00z last night. It seemed to do well with Matthew last year seeing the westward shifts earliest IIRC.

I would ignore the CMC track. Gfs/ukmet east. Nothing much left to say as these models are way better than the Cmc.

[stormlover2013]

What does ukmet show ?

[Kingarabian]

I'll be back later to post the Euro.

[tolakram]

Guys, the 18z had this still in south TX on Tuesday. This run has it 500 miles or so farther east. Way less flooding for SE TX this run. The rain is dispersed over a way bigger area on the 0z and is confined to a smaller area on the 18z making the flooding way worse in SE TX. I would post a pic, but it's not working.

Just post the link, which I viewed and agree with. If you want to post a pic copy it to an image site like imgur first, then embed it here using the 'direct link' URL.

[ROCK]

Sub 960s also not good

[hd44]

What does ukmet show ?

Held firm on a decent hurricane similar to last night and afternoon run.

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_29.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_29.png

Figured it out. Forgot how to post pics there for a moment lol

[Dean4Storms]

Think this is going to be real bad for the upper half of TX coast, RI and intense rainfall. I just hope when it catches the eastern Trough it is inland enough that the center does not get back out over the waters of the northern Gulf or this could be a real big mess from Tx to the FL Panhandle.