Cold Air Advection to Continue Through Oct 8th

[wxman57]

Latest model guidance - European, GFS, indicate another strong shot of cool air into the Gulf tomorrow evening and an even stronger shot on Sunday morning, with cold advection continuing Monday and Tuesday. The only gap in the CAA appears to be between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning - 30-36 hours. That would be the only window of opportunity for the frontal boundary to weaken and the low to separate. Not much of a window.

The new ECMWF now fizzles it out into Mexico Friday/Satuday, a solution which looks quite likely. It doesn't look like there's much chance of this thing coming north. Now a wave may ripple up the front across Florida in advance of the digging trof tomorrow night/Thursday, but the main low should stay down south.

So it's a storm, but it isn't tropical, and there probably won't be enough of a break between cold air advection episodes for it to transform to a TS.

[Josephine96]

Good synopsis... We'll of course wait and see if it's a correct 1.. but it was a good 1

[Stevex2]

wx,

My account was screwed up with the migration, but I wanted to completely disagree with this particular post. It's all good though 57 because I appreciated today's post. Still, I think you followed the TPC too closely with the downplaying of potential here and wanted to put the word out. Of course it's all FWIW because it's been named now.

Peace anyway.

Steve

[JetMaxx]

wx57 is a professional meteorologist in the Houston, Texas area....and he's a d@mn good one. He's extremely well spoken and competent.

He and I don't always agree on our analysis of the tropics....but I definitely respect him, and know he doesn't follow the NHC line. wx57 doesn't have too....he's that good.

[JetMaxx]

FYI - if anyone is expecting this system to become another hurricane Opal, they are only kidding themselves. The synoptic situation is totally different than early October 1995.

Not only is there a tremendous westerly wind flow (shear) running just north of Larry, but it's forecast to continue for the next several days...the next week. If this storm comes too far north, it will be ripped to shreds within 12 hours....80 kts of westerly shear will destroy a major hurricane.

The best chance for Larry to make landfall as a hurricane is to slowly drift W or WSW into Mexico.
If it takes the course some of the NHC track models were forecasting this afternoon ("slingshotting" rapidly toward the ENE), it would pass over Florida and SE Georgia as a fast moving area of sheared showers.

Also, in 1995, that was a very warm October following a blistering hot summer....while this is some of the coldest early October weather experienced in the Southeast since 1979 (frost forecast tomorrow night in north Georgia/ Alabama)...following one of the mildest summers in recent history. It's totally different than what occurred in October 1995.

Hurricane Opal was like Camille...a "freak" storm....a once in a lifetime event (Opal was by far the most intense hurricane of record in the central GOM during October).

[zoeyann]

JettMaxx, while I will agree that there is little to no chance of this becoming a major storm I have been blind sided by many rain makers that have caused serious damage and headaches. Namely Juan in 85, Isadore, and Lily. What hurt my area in these situations was the flooding caused by a persistant north wind and lots of rain. I'm not argueing that it will be another Opal, but I guess my point is don't downplay a weakling storm.

[Steve]

All good Jetmaxx. I know who he is and I respect the heck out of him. I interact with other professional mets on other boards. I was a long time visitor to Storm2k's chatroom, but didn't come to the board until earlier this year. I don't fight with anyone, but I will disagree as strongly as necessary and expect all others to do the same if they feel opposite of what I do about something. I've had it out with Jason Kelly, Ed Dunham, Derek O., Derecho, local and tv mets, friends and family and what have you. It's no big deal in the scheme of things because we're all right sometimes and wrong on others.

Personally, I felt this particular post was way off and tried like all get out to post the last couple of days. Toni hooked me up with the new server so I was finally able to get on and post a disagreement (with the disclaimer that I really enjoyed his post today with the drawn on front). Sometimes I'll back 57, sometimes I won't. No need to be nice though if you don't want to because I don't think I did anything wrong.

The things I specifically disagreed with were:

1) The only window Larry would have to separate from the front was between Friday and Saturday (what happened Wednesday?)

2) The liklihood that the ECMWF solution of fizzling the frontal low in Mexico on Friday or Saturday (remains to be seen)

3) A wave may shoot up NE towards FL tomorrow night (which is today) or Thursday (disagreed - as the energy kept firing off progressively westward in relation to the low pressure center though the flow itself was pumping tons of moisture over the peninsula)

4) It's a storm, but not a tropical storm and there probably wouldn't be enough of a break between the cold air advection for it to become a tropical storm (disagreed).
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As noted, my post is pretty useless since I couldn't log on yesterday, but I felt strongly enough in my disagreement that I wanted to challenge the big dog. I'm sure he doesn't take any offense as I'm not one of the people I disagree with directing everything up my way in Louisiana.

And you certainly don't have to go light on me if you don't want to. My only credentials are that I've been watching and studying every one of these things for close to 40 years of living in SE Louisiana where it pays to know what's going on.

Peace,

Steve

[Rainband]

Lets just all remember...that everyone makes errors when it comes to weather. It is the most unpredictable thing on earth.. Lets just disagree with respect..as we have thus far

[JetMaxx]

You may not zoeyann, but some are. I've seen posts by several comparing this storm to hurricane Opal....and it's ridiculous.

I was (IMO unfairly) accused on this board of being an "alarmist" several weeks ago because I forecast hurricane Isabel to make landfall as a strong cat-3 hurricane in North Carolina. I had solid model intensity guidance (GFDL) PLUS climatology AND an overall synoptic weather pattern conductive to intensification....what I forecast regarding Isabel was within the realm of possibility.

Forecasting TS Larry into a monster hurricane isn't in the realm of possibility...at least not if the eventual track is toward Florida or the northeast Gulf Coast. There's just too much shear....it's not going to happen.

The odds are that Larry will either slowly drift west, or even SW into Mexico and dissapate....or meander around the SW GOM is until the next strong frontal trough comes along, and the strong shear ahead of the trough axis will blow the top off Larry and shear it apart.

I rate the current odds of Larry striking Florida or the Gulf Coast as a 100 mph hurricane at less than 1% percent. The odds of another hurricane Opal (150 mph)....less than 1 in a million.

[Steve]

LOL Rainband. Respect is always the key to a gentleman's (gentleperson's in the 2000's of course) disagreement.
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JetMaxx..

>>was (IMO unfairly) accused on this board of being an "alarmist" several weeks ago because I forecast hurricane Isabel to make landfall as a strong cat-3 hurricane in North Carolina.

I remember your forecast and I agreed with it. I didn't see the thread where you were referred to as an alarmist, but I agreed with your forecast. I was also on record over at flhurricane. I got trashed for being a Bastardi hack by someone who had it brushing the outer banks and missing land entirely (a degreed met also in Houston FWIW). What he didn't realize was that Bastardi had it into Delmarva at the time and the day before he even made his call, I thought south of Outer Banks.

FWIW, my post was 9/11/03 at 11:58 am. I got hacked for it by some others to, but it said:

"As for Isabel, though it's 8-10 days away in my scenario, I'm going along with the Maemi teleconnection of a crawling storm closer into the coast landfalling somewhere between Charleston, SC and Wrightsville Beach, NC next Sunday or Monday. Very tough call on intensity as most IH's don't last as long as Isabel has or is predicted to. That's nothing new for 2003 which has been an odd year all the way around"
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So it looks like we were in the same boat for that memorable storm.

Steve