ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

We have seen this before..ULL with a LLC in its shadow. Can't recall which storm it was but it played havoc with the models. GFS ended up the big winner though as the Euro caved. I know bc I lost a bunch of money that day with my Euro hugging self.

[tolakram]

SLIDER shortwave, still too dark for visible.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5157.5&y=6423.5&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

Saved GIF

[GCANE]

Recon in progress.
Drop 2. Northern part of the MCS.
Air column nearly saturated top to bottom.

[NDG]

Recon this morning is finding plenty of west winds but low pressure center is broad at this time.

[mcheer23]

Advisories will start at 10am probably

[SouthDadeFish]

Judging by recon, which just found some WSW winds, it looks like the center, or at least one vort, is near 21.3N 92.6W. That would be on the SW edge of the convection.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system. The low is forecast to move to the
northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. This
system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[NDG]

Advisories will start at 10am probably

Yeap, advisories will start at 10 AM.

[GCANE]

[Nederlander]

Due to the unique setup, when can we expect to have a better idea on intensity? I am in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area and I am working on plans in case there is a need to evacuate.

[tolakram]

IMO we need to look at organization. If this gets organized quicker than the GFS and Euro predict then intensity would most likely be stronger. Both models, right now, show a system struggling to organize around a broad center of circulation until 48 hours or so, then fairly rapid organization until landfall.

Amateur opinion, the wording of the 10am CDT NHC discussion is what counts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Blown Away]

Nearly all the 06z intensity guidance keeps Harvey below hurricane strength next 5 days...

[NDG]

I wouldn't be paying too much attention to intensity models at this time, any little extra time that it spends over water it could very well become a hurricane, and vice versa if it moves inland faster than forecasted. Besides the biggest impact will be the heavy rains and some tidal flooding.

[Aric Dunn]

cant believe they have not upgraded this prior ..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/900333446240894978

[NDG]

I placed the 'L" where they are closing off the circulation center, near 21.5N & 92.5W

[GCANE]

[cycloneye]

[Frank P]

[quote="NDG"]I placed the 'L" where they are closing off the circulation center, near 21.5N & 92.5W

That looks like a well formed Depression at the minimum...