ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

The other thing to note is with intensifying systems approaching the Texas coast at this trajectory, forecast adjustments tend to shift right/east.

Yes they do..good point..

Needed some sanity in here..remember recon is flying and data has already been sent for the Gonzo flights last night. All of this data is going into the models and will continue up until landfall if it makes it. I am sure soundings are going up all along the coast. Deep breath..

[stormreader]

The other thing to note is with intensifying systems approaching the Texas coast at this trajectory, forecast adjustments tend to shift right/east.

Agree 100%, I think its just a matter of time before it starts making a more easterly shift. It's a waiting game now.

Yes

[LearnedHat]

The other thing to note is with intensifying systems approaching the Texas coast at this trajectory, forecast adjustments tend to shift right/east.

Agree 100%, I think its just a matter of time before it starts making a more easterly shift. It's a waiting game now.

So does the NHC not take that into account when establishing the cone?

[slamdaddy]

watch and wait

[ROCK]

Thats about as a lengthy discussion I have seen since Rita and her 890mb pressure..a lot of thought right there. Nice work NHC

[jasons2k]

NHC tends to be a bit conservative, especially at first and until a trend is established.

Of note, the 12Z GFS has shifted a bit west.

[slamdaddy]

Loop da loop

[CycloneGuru]

The other thing to note is with intensifying systems approaching the Texas coast at this trajectory, forecast adjustments tend to shift right/east.

Agree 100%, I think its just a matter of time before it starts making a more easterly shift. It's a waiting game now.

So does the NHC not take that into account when establishing the cone?

You would think that but if you go Back in 2004, 3 days or so before landfall, the models had Rita going over Matagorda and it made a right hook and hit the LA/TX border. Just an example.

[slamdaddy]

Maybe the wrong thread, but does G-IV, Hunter and WFO data get fed into the Euro model ?

[ROCK]

Eh Rita was gradual shift...had a lot of east wobbles jogs...you guys forget the ridging steering is not some flat surface some smooth line the TC hugs..

Besides it's really about time to look at recon and real time forecasting. In this short range models should be narrowing down and that is what the NHC is showing. Intensity who knows at this point...js

[xironman]

Storm starting to pop off some decent towers near the CoC, should help get the core going and a pressure drop.

[GCANE]

Seems like all those towers may have heated a core.
Seeing a quick clearing just south of 23W with some turning.

[Jagno]

Agree 100%, I think its just a matter of time before it starts making a more easterly shift. It's a waiting game now.

So does the NHC not take that into account when establishing the cone?

You would think that but if you go Back in 2004, 3 days or so before landfall, the models had Rita going over Matagorda and it made a right hook and hit the LA/TX border. Just an example.

I lost my home in Rita. It was definitely 2005, not 2004. It wasn't an immediate turn but it did catch quite a few by surprise. Thanks to S2K and many of these discussions I felt that enough knowledgeable people here could see the pattern and got out ahead of the masses. Unfortunately I didn't go far enough and NEVER go east of an approaching storm.

[CycloneGuru]

2005 is correct, sorry, I never proof read

[xironman]

Center probably now north of 42055 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):   NNW ( 340 deg true )

[tolakram]

That LLC looks good, not seeing any extra vortices.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4606.5&y=6320.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

SLIDER slow to respond, here is the other loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=22&lon=-92&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=20&quality=92

[Steve]

Center probably now north of 42055 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):   NNW ( 340 deg true )

Is it that far or do you think that might be thunderstorm induced?

[xironman]

Center probably now north of 42055 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):   NNW ( 340 deg true )

Is it that far or do you think that might be thunderstorm induced?

Looking at the intermediate data it looks a deliberate turn as opposed to a short term gust

10:50 am NNW ( 341 deg ) 16.7 kts
10:40 am NNW ( 344 deg ) 17.3 kts
10:30 am N ( 353 deg ) 15.2 kts
10:20 am N ( 7 deg ) 15.2 kts
10:10 am N ( 8 deg ) 15.7 kts
10:00 am N ( 8 deg ) 15.5 kts

[RL3AO]

It cannot be said enough. A potentially catastrophic flooding event is setting up for SE TX, mid-TX coast, and SW LA. Prepare now if you live in that area. Rainfall totals could exceed Allison.

[Roxy]

It cannot be said enough. A potentially catastrophic flooding event is setting up for SE TX, mid-TX coast, and SW LA. Prepare now if you live in that area. Rainfall totals could exceed Allison.

I just looked it up, Allison dumped 39 inches...