ATL: HARVEY - Models

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OntarioEggplant
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2041 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:21 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Strengthening storm over Texas does not seem plausible so I'm very skeptical.


It's happened before with Erin and Allison.

That said, I am concerned now that the Euro and GFS are very close to agreement through at least 102 hours. They really aren't that much different
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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2042 Postby hd44 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:22 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Erin_(2007)
Ts Erin did this in 2007... it could happen. Remember it will not pass over elevated terrain.
Last edited by hd44 on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2043 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:22 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2044 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:23 pm

Models are to far west with landfall, I'm still thinking Matagorda Bay
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2045 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:23 pm

hd44 wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Erin_(2007)
Ts Erin did this in 2007... it could happen. Remember it will not pass over elevated terrain.


It really depends on how far inland it comes though. The Hill County is elevated enough to disrupt it
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2046 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:24 pm

12z GFS and Euro shows that I may not be able to fly into San Antonio on Sunday, I may have to change my flight to Dallas then drive down :(
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2047 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:25 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Strengthening storm over Texas does not seem plausible so I'm very skeptical.


Texas Topography

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stormreader

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2048 Postby stormreader » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:25 pm

hd44 wrote:Ukmet and Ecmwf never diverge this much by 48 hours or very rarely. This is very complicated forecast.


You can say that again!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2049 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:27 pm

I can't see the images while at work. Does the Euro bring this north once it landfalls the 2nd time (as opposed to east or ene)? Is it staying consistent with that ending?
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2050 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:29 pm

Bombing out south of Galveston @ 144hrs.
:double:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2051 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:29 pm

984mb at 144 hrs heading NE. This is just insane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2052 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:31 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2053 Postby Frank P » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:32 pm

Oh man, this storm is going to raise the pucker pressure of a plethora of folks.... that looks pretty good out in the Gulf to ...
Last edited by Frank P on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2054 Postby hd44 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:32 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017082312/jma_mslp_uv850_watl_9.png
Day 8 Jma
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2055 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:33 pm

Down to 979.5mb at hour 150...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2056 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:34 pm

Euro 150 hours, 981mb south of Galveston.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2057 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:34 pm

Frank P wrote:Oh man, this storm is going to raise the pucker pressure of a plethora of folks.... that looks pretty good out in the Gulf to ...


Frank...you win the internet for the day...pucker pressure.....lol
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2058 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:35 pm

Wouldn't these runs be close to what the NAM is showing, but the NAM is just a little slower with movement, and therefore no landfall in SE Texas?
Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2059 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:35 pm

155 hours, 976mb south of Tx/La border.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2060 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:35 pm

Into SW Louisiana @ 168hrs. Would 980mb. equate to a major hurricane on hi-res.?

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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